Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
316 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Upper level high in the Atlantic will continue to dominate our
weather this afternoon into tomorrow. Under the aforementioned high
today is playing out very similarly to yesterday with warm
temperatures, high humidity values, light winds and slightly earlier
CI times. This afternoons/evenings storms will be diurnally driven
and will slowly dissipate as the sun goes down. Main threats with
these storms will be heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.
Overnight, in the wake of the rain showers and thunderstorms patchy
fog will be possible across much of area.

Tomorrow afternoon continued advection of moisture off the Atlantic
will become trapped under the upper high. By tomorrow afternoon the
CWA will sit on the periphery of this high resulting in another
afternoon of scattered, diurnally driven rain showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures tomorrow will be slightly lower than
today in response to high clouds covering the area.

28

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Only minor tweeks to the long term forecast with the primary concern
being updates for approaching Tropical Storm Fred which is currently
centered over eastern Hispaniola. Overall, there are no major updates
with this tropical cyclone outside the fact that a good portion of
the forecast area is now within the 5-day forecast cone of
uncertainty (although, as we all know by now impacts can be felt far
outside the cone!) Models are in fairly good agreement with the
storm track and evolution up until landfall overnight Sunday night
into Monday morning, however, major discrepancies still exist after
this time. Recent trends have been to nudge the track slightly
westward before landfall then hook the storm back to the northeast
as synoptic-level steering winds direct the storm, but the timing of
the northeasterly ejection of the cyclone is debated between each
run with no overall consensus. Therefore the official forecast aims
for the middle which takes the center of the track near the Atlanta
metro area around Tuesday afternoon, but this is subject to change
in terms of location, timing, and intensity. See previous discussion
for more details...

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION...  /Issued 407 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021/

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

First half of the extended forecast remains pretty straight-forward.
Upper-level pattern weak and disorganized. Region stays on the
northwest periphery of the western Atlantic surface ridge into the
weekend, with a secondary surface ridge building down the east coast
by early next week. Scattered to widespread, diurnally driven,
convection persists through the weekend with seasonably warm
temperatures.

Model consensus still fairly good concerning tropical activity
moving north through the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week,
however there continues to be noticeable differences in the
strength/timing/ movement of the system, now called Fred, as it
reaches the gulf coast and beyond. Still a long ways off in the
forecast, but it does still look like we will see some degree of
impacts across central and north Georgia during the first half of
next week, at least increased rainfall over the region.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA continuing to develop across the area this afternoon
with all airfields having a chance of seeing convection on and off
between now and 22Z. In the wake of the rain showers have
included patchy fog for most sites overnight. Outside of the fog
and into tomorrow morning VFR conditions are expected. Winds
through the forecast period will remain light and variable.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on fog overnight.
High confidence on all other elements.

28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  90  72  93 /  30  40  30  40
Atlanta         72  90  72  93 /  30  50  40  60
Blairsville     66  84  67  85 /  30  70  40  70
Cartersville    71  91  71  93 /  30  50  30  60
Columbus        73  91  73  94 /  30  50  30  50
Gainesville     71  89  72  91 /  30  50  30  50
Macon           72  92  72  95 /  30  40  20  40
Rome            72  91  72  93 /  20  50  30  60
Peachtree City  71  90  71  93 /  30  50  30  50
Vidalia         73  91  73  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-121915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
303 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered diurnal thunderstorms are expected, mainly this
afternoon and evening. These storms may be strong to severe with the
primary hazard being strong, potentially damaging wind gusts,
brief periods of heavy rainfall, small hail, and occasional cloud-
to- ground lighting.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
Thursday through Tuesday, most numerous during the afternoons and
evenings. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe
weather is expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty still remains, there is a possibility that
a tropical low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions
of central and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
518 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ001-002-112145-
Walker GA-Dade GA-
518 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WALKER
AND SOUTHWESTERN DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 518 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rising Fawn, or near
Trenton...moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Trenton, Cloudland Canyon State Park and Rising Fawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3487 8548 3474 8539 3468 8555 3477 8557
      3484 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 336DEG 8KT 3479 8552

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
525 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ039-112200-
Wilkes GA-
525 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WILKES
COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 525 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Delhi, or 11 miles
north of Washington...moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Tignall, Mallorysville, Delhi, Danburg, Floral Hill and Norman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3384 8258 3383 8260 3381 8259 3378 8262
      3386 8279 3397 8276 3399 8272 3398 8269
      3399 8266 3398 8265 3386 8261 3387 8258
      3387 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 202DEG 5KT 3389 8267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75IN
MAX WIND GUST...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
534 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ039-051-062-112200-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Warren GA-
534 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN WARREN,
TALIAFERRO AND SOUTHWESTERN WILKES COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Crawfordville. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Crawfordville, Sharon, Ficklin, Barnett, Raytown, Alexander Stephens
Park and Sandy Cross.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3343 8284 3344 8285 3344 8289 3348 8298
      3368 8291 3360 8265 3359 8264
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 202DEG 4KT 3352 8289

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
538 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ053-066-112215-
Coweta GA-Troup GA-
538 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN TROUP
AND SOUTHWESTERN COWETA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 538 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
near Corinth to near LaGrange...and moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
LaGrange, Hogansville, Corinth, Hillcrest, Louise and Harrisonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3321 8499 3323 8494 3326 8495 3327 8494
      3322 8485 3321 8485 3321 8487 3320 8487
      3320 8486 3316 8486 3296 8498 3306 8511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 183DEG 6KT 3323 8489 3307 8503

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
540 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ007-013-112215-
Gilmer GA-Pickens GA-
540 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GILMER
AND NORTH CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Talona, or 7 miles
south of Ellijay...moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jasper, East Ellijay, Talking Rock, Talona and Cartecay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3446 8439 3448 8454 3467 8452 3464 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 201DEG 7KT 3459 8445

MAX HAIL SIZE...
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
541 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

GAZ008-015-112215-
Union GA-Lumpkin GA-
541 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN LUMPKIN
AND EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Turners Corner, or 10
miles north of Dahlonega. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Turners Corner, Woods Hole Shelter and Blood Mountain Shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3473 8384 3472 8386 3469 8386 3469 8387
      3467 8387 3464 8390 3467 8398 3476 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 213DEG 3KT 3468 8393

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH