Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of west and central Georgia this afternoon. Low level southerly
flow will continue to provide ample moisture for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area aided by a lee
side trough building down the Appalachians and afternoon heating.
Widespread severe storms are not anticipated, however cannot rule
out a stray severe thunderstorms with gusty winds the main threat.
The treat for thunderstorms and showers will diminish after 8 pm
with the loss of daytime heating. The moist summertime pattern
will remain across the tomorrow with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to redevelop with daytime heating once
again. Temperatures will continue above normal through the period
with central areas once again flirting with heat indices in the
100-104 range.

Atwell

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

The Gulf remains open through the long term period as the Bermuda
High stays stagnant and unwavering just off the Carolina coast, with
a surface ridge axis building through the southern Gulf states. This
setup will create a broad south to southwesterly fetch of warm,
moist air inundating the forecast region with PWATs between 1.7-2.1
inches. With general high pressure in the region accompanying the
tropical airmass, highs will remain in the low 90s with heat
indices in the high 90s and low- to mid-triple digits.

The biggest concern and divergence from the long term forecast comes
thanks to Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which currently rests just
southeast of Puerto Rico. Over the last 24 hours, model guidance has
come to a consensus regarding the track of this storm which the
national Hurricane Center predicts will be just off the western
Florida peninsula, potentially making landfall in the eastern
Florida panhandle as a weak tropical storm or tropical depression.
However, forecast models can change quickly and forecast tropical
cyclone intensity is notoriously difficult to forecast this far
in advance. Either way, careful attention will need to be paid to
this storm as it approaches the Southeastern U.S., especially with
the track placing the forecast area on the 'dirty' side of the
storm where rainfall totals, higher wind gusts, and severe weather
are more likely to occur.

Thiem

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 151 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021/

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect VFR conditions outside of convection developing around the
TAF sites. Have TEMPOs covering the convective coverage through
00Z. Winds will continue to be light - mainly southwest to west at
5 kts or less although could see variable winds 10-15kt with
gusts to 20-25kts with thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  73  92 /  30  50  20  50
Atlanta         74  89  73  90 /  30  50  20  60
Blairsville     67  83  67  86 /  40  50  20  60
Cartersville    72  90  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
Columbus        74  91  74  92 /  30  50  20  60
Gainesville     73  89  72  90 /  30  50  20  60
Macon           73  92  73  94 /  30  50  20  50
Rome            73  91  72  93 /  20  40  20  50
Peachtree City  72  88  72  91 /  30  50  20  60
Vidalia         74  91  74  93 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
332 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, mainly through this
evening. The primary hazard from any thunderstorms will be
occasional cloud-to-ground lighting, gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
Wednesday through Monday, most numerous during the afternoons and
evenings. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe
weather is expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty remains, there is a possibility that a
tropical low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions of
central and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
535 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE FORTSON           32.60N  84.91W
08/10/2021                   MUSCOGEE           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON VETERANS PARKWAY AT GREY ROCK
            ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100482

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
536 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ046>048-102200-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Newton GA-
536 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
ROCKDALE, SOUTHWESTERN WALTON AND NORTH CENTRAL NEWTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 536 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Big Haynes Creek Park,
or near Conyers...moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Conyers, Loganville, Social Circle, Walnut Grove, Between, Jersey,
Georgia International Horse Park, Gum Creek, Youth and Big Haynes
Creek Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3365 8374 3365 8395 3374 8404 3381 8396
      3384 8381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 257DEG 4KT 3376 8399

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
538 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW FLAT ROCK         32.54N  84.87W
08/10/2021                   MUSCOGEE           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON MILGEN ROAD NEAR FLAT ROCK ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100483

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
556 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ049-050-102230-
Morgan GA-Greene GA-
556 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN
AND NORTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 556 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Apalachee, or near
Madison...moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Madison, Buckhead, Greshamville, Carey, Swords and Wrayswood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3345 8348 3363 8351 3371 8337 3372 8333
      3357 8321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 242DEG 5KT 3363 8340

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
559 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ034-045-102230-
DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
559 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL DEKALB
AND CENTRAL GWINNETT COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 559 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Lilburn, or near
Lawrenceville...moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lawrenceville, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Snellville, Suwanee, Lilburn,
Norcross, Doraville, Grayson, Berkeley Lake, Tucker, Mountain Park,
Rosebud and Mechanicsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3389 8385 3383 8393 3377 8402 3382 8408
      3383 8423 3390 8428 3408 8407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 242DEG 5KT 3390 8408

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
600 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ027-036>038-102230-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
600 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN OCONEE,
SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE, NORTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Arnoldsville, or near
Lexington...moving northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Watkinsville, Lexington, Comer, Winterville, Crawford, Colbert,
Arnoldsville, Whitehall, Athens-Clarke County, Stephens, Smithonia,
Hutchings, Barnett Shoals, Dunlap and State Botanical Garden Of Ga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3387 8299 3375 8326 3376 8328 3374 8330
      3373 8332 3389 8343 3407 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 242DEG 5KT 3392 8319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH