Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of west and central Georgia this afternoon. Low level southerly
flow will continue to provide ample moisture for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area aided by a lee
side trough building down the Appalachians and afternoon heating.
Widespread severe storms are not anticipated, however cannot rule
out a stray severe thunderstorms with gusty winds the main threat.
The treat for thunderstorms and showers will diminish after 8 pm
with the loss of daytime heating. The moist summertime pattern
will remain across the tomorrow with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to redevelop with daytime heating once
again. Temperatures will continue above normal through the period
with central areas once again flirting with heat indices in the
100-104 range.

Atwell

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

The Gulf remains open through the long term period as the Bermuda
High stays stagnant and unwavering just off the Carolina coast, with
a surface ridge axis building through the southern Gulf states. This
setup will create a broad south to southwesterly fetch of warm,
moist air inundating the forecast region with PWATs between 1.7-2.1
inches. With general high pressure in the region accompanying the
tropical airmass, highs will remain in the low 90s with heat
indices in the high 90s and low- to mid-triple digits.

The biggest concern and divergence from the long term forecast comes
thanks to Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which currently rests just
southeast of Puerto Rico. Over the last 24 hours, model guidance has
come to a consensus regarding the track of this storm which the
national Hurricane Center predicts will be just off the western
Florida peninsula, potentially making landfall in the eastern
Florida panhandle as a weak tropical storm or tropical depression.
However, forecast models can change quickly and forecast tropical
cyclone intensity is notoriously difficult to forecast this far
in advance. Either way, careful attention will need to be paid to
this storm as it approaches the Southeastern U.S., especially with
the track placing the forecast area on the 'dirty' side of the
storm where rainfall totals, higher wind gusts, and severe weather
are more likely to occur.

Thiem

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 151 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021/

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect VFR conditions outside of convection developing around the
TAF sites. Have TEMPOs covering the convective coverage through
00Z. Winds will continue to be light - mainly southwest to west at
5 kts or less although could see variable winds 10-15kt with
gusts to 20-25kts with thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  73  92 /  30  50  20  50
Atlanta         74  89  73  90 /  30  50  20  60
Blairsville     67  83  67  86 /  40  50  20  60
Cartersville    72  90  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
Columbus        74  91  74  92 /  30  50  20  60
Gainesville     73  89  72  90 /  30  50  20  60
Macon           73  92  73  94 /  30  50  20  50
Rome            73  91  72  93 /  20  40  20  50
Peachtree City  72  88  72  91 /  30  50  20  60
Vidalia         74  91  74  93 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
332 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111945-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
332 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, mainly through this
evening. The primary hazard from any thunderstorms will be
occasional cloud-to-ground lighting, gusty winds and brief heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
Wednesday through Monday, most numerous during the afternoons and
evenings. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe
weather is expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty remains, there is a possibility that a
tropical low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions of
central and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
442 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ050-061-102115-
Hancock GA-Greene GA-
442 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HANCOCK
AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
near Springfield to near Shoulderbone. These storms were nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
White Plains, Springfield, Shoulderbone, Powelton and Culverton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3330 8285 3334 8313 3347 8309 3342 8282
      3341 8283 3341 8282 3339 8283 3339 8282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 268DEG 4KT 3339 8292 3340 8303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
450 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ046-057-102115-
Rockdale GA-Henry GA-
450 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
ROCKDALE AND NORTH CENTRAL HENRY COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 449 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Stockbridge, or 7
miles northwest of McDonough. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
McDonough, Stockbridge, Richardson Park, Hidden Valley Park, Eagles
Landing and Flippen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3362 8412 3347 8413 3347 8425 3358 8426
      3359 8424 3360 8424 3360 8425 3361 8426
      3362 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 192DEG 4KT 3354 8421

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW FORTSON           32.63N  84.95W
08/10/2021                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ONTO FORTSON RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100479

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULBERRY GROVE          32.66N  84.95W
08/10/2021                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ONTO POWER LINES ON FORTSON ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100480

RWILLIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
504 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE FORTSON           32.63N  84.93W
08/10/2021                   HARRIS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ONTO WEST BONACRE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2100481

RWILLIS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
512 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ042-052-102145-
Carroll GA-Heard GA-
512 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL
AND NORTHWESTERN HEARD COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Tyus, or 11 miles
southwest of Carrollton...moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Carrollton, Bowdon, Ephesus, Tyus, Blackjack Mountain and
Roosterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3360 8511 3339 8517 3340 8529 3353 8531
      3359 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 178DEG 11KT 3348 8523

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH