Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of west and central Georgia this afternoon. Low level southerly
flow will continue to provide ample moisture for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area aided by a lee
side trough building down the Appalachians and afternoon heating.
Widespread severe storms are not anticipated, however cannot rule
out a stray severe thunderstorms with gusty winds the main threat.
The treat for thunderstorms and showers will diminish after 8 pm
with the loss of daytime heating. The moist summertime pattern
will remain across the tomorrow with scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected to redevelop with daytime heating once
again. Temperatures will continue above normal through the period
with central areas once again flirting with heat indices in the
100-104 range.

Atwell

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

The Gulf remains open through the long term period as the Bermuda
High stays stagnant and unwavering just off the Carolina coast, with
a surface ridge axis building through the southern Gulf states. This
setup will create a broad south to southwesterly fetch of warm,
moist air inundating the forecast region with PWATs between 1.7-2.1
inches. With general high pressure in the region accompanying the
tropical airmass, highs will remain in the low 90s with heat
indices in the high 90s and low- to mid-triple digits.

The biggest concern and divergence from the long term forecast comes
thanks to Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, which currently rests just
southeast of Puerto Rico. Over the last 24 hours, model guidance has
come to a consensus regarding the track of this storm which the
national Hurricane Center predicts will be just off the western
Florida peninsula, potentially making landfall in the eastern
Florida panhandle as a weak tropical storm or tropical depression.
However, forecast models can change quickly and forecast tropical
cyclone intensity is notoriously difficult to forecast this far
in advance. Either way, careful attention will need to be paid to
this storm as it approaches the Southeastern U.S., especially with
the track placing the forecast area on the 'dirty' side of the
storm where rainfall totals, higher wind gusts, and severe weather
are more likely to occur.

Thiem

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 151 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021/

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Expect VFR conditions outside of convection developing around the
TAF sites. Have TEMPOs covering the convective coverage through
00Z. Winds will continue to be light - mainly southwest to west at
5 kts or less although could see variable winds 10-15kt with
gusts to 20-25kts with thunderstorms.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  90  73  92 /  30  50  20  50
Atlanta         74  89  73  90 /  30  50  20  60
Blairsville     67  83  67  86 /  40  50  20  60
Cartersville    72  90  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
Columbus        74  91  74  92 /  30  50  20  60
Gainesville     73  89  72  90 /  30  50  20  60
Macon           73  92  73  94 /  30  50  20  50
Rome            73  91  72  93 /  20  40  20  50
Peachtree City  72  88  72  91 /  30  50  20  60
Vidalia         74  91  74  93 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
600 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
600 AM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central
Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, mainly this afternoon and
evening. The primary hazard from any thunderstorms will be occasional
cloud-to-ground lighting, gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible each day
Wednesday through Monday, most numerous during the afternoons and
evenings. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm will be heavy
rain, gusty winds and lightning. Although no widespread severe
weather is expected at this time, an isolated severe storm cannot be
ruled out with damaging winds as the main threat.

Although much uncertainty remains, there is a possibility that a
tropical low will impact the southeastern U.S., including portions of
central and north Georgia, early next week. Please continue to
monitor the forecast for further developments.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
211 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ069-079>081-101845-
Taylor GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Talbot GA-
211 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN UPSON,
NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD, EASTERN TALBOT AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES
THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 211 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
near Roberta to Prattsburg...and moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Roberta, Knoxville, Salem, Prattsburg, Horns, Big Lazer Creek Wma,
Carsonville, Wesley Church, Musella and Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3264 8395 3260 8442 3280 8445 3285 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 347DEG 8KT 3274 8407 3273 8435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
223 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ066-078-101900-
Harris GA-Troup GA-
223 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TROUP
AND NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 222 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near River View, or near
Valley. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
West Point, Whitesville-Pine Lake, Jones Crossroads and Mountain
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3285 8496 3270 8502 3275 8514 3276 8514
      3278 8512 3279 8515 3281 8517 3283 8517
      3285 8515 3286 8519 3291 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 300DEG 3KT 3283 8512

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ093>095-101915-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Houston GA-
241 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MACON,
PEACH AND WEST CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 241 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Miami Valley, or near
Fort Valley. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Perry, Fort Valley, Marshallville, Saint Louis, Powerville, Moss Oak,
Meadowdale, Miami Valley and Lakewood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3245 8398 3262 8388 3263 8386 3260 8374
      3253 8371 3240 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 189DEG 1KT 3256 8383

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
245 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ078-089-101915-
Harris GA-Muscogee GA-
245 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF MUSCOGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Ellerslie to near Columbus Metropolitan Airport. These
storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Columbus, Bibb City, Ellerslie, Saint Marys Hills, Edgewood, Flat
Rock, Highland Park, Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills, Vista Terrace,
Cataula, Columbus Metropolitan Airport, Rose Hill, Midland, Kenwood,
Avondale and Fortson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3262 8500 3270 8486 3266 8473 3248 8475
      3244 8497 3245 8500 3252 8501
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 264DEG 1KT 3264 8482 3254 8493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ081-094-101915-
Peach GA-Crawford GA-
300 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PEACH
AND EAST CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Powerville, or 7 miles
northeast of Fort Valley...moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Byron and Jack Brown Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3263 8386 3272 8382 3269 8372 3260 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 016DEG 6KT 3264 8381

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ083-095-102015-
Houston GA-Twiggs GA-
322 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TWIGGS
AND CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 322 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Kathleen, or 9 miles
east of Perry. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Perry, Warner Robins, Robins Air Force Base, Hayneville,
Tarversville, Sand Bed, Houston Lake, Grovania, Elko, Grove Park,
Bonaire, Kathleen and Clinchfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3236 8380 3265 8358 3255 8338 3247 8346
      3245 8350 3244 8349 3229 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 029DEG 3KT 3251 8358

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25IN
MAX WIND GUST...40MPH