Alert archive / Texas / Areal Flood Advisories in 2021

Areal Flood Advisory 80, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

May 28, 2021Blanco County, Gillespie County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this areal flood advisory at May 28, 2021, 7:49 PM CDT for Blanco County, Gillespie County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2021, 7:49 PM CDT (00:49 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2021, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Blanco County, TX, Gillespie County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at May 28, 4:31 PM CDT, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 28, 4:31 PM CDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
431 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

.UPDATE.../ADDED LLANO TO WATCH #218/
A new severe watch may be in the plans for later this evening, but
severe storms are grazing the northern border of Llano County. Watch
218 was expanded to buy some time until 00z for Llano.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Storms firing along an front/outflow boundary over Central TX will
likely threaten Burnet/Williamson/Lee counties by aroun 20Z.
Moisture rich environment as the storms move south should make for a
slightly more skinny CAPE profile over time and lead to heavy rain
and damaging winds and 1 inch hail as the elevated threats as the
storms expand south into the metro cities in the evening hours.

A new weather watch may be needed for western counties shortly (per
MCD #786), and this will be over an area where >2 inch hail threats
are higher, with cooler and drier air aloft west of a line from
Burnet to Boerne to Crystal City. The dry-line is pretty far to the
west, so the first storm cells that enter this delayed threat area
may also me coming from the front/outflow boundary to the north.
Colliding cells and the high pwat levels near 2 inches will congeal
the storms into an MCS with a solid line expected by the time San
Antonio is impacted. Judging by the last few runs of the HRRR the
severe and heavy rain threat may ease up over AUS as early as 9 pm.
However, the coarser scale models do less with outflows and show
more late night activity through the I-35 corridor rooted toward an
amplifying mid level trough. Where the developing frontal boundary
is by midnight should help determine whether the threat continues in
to the early morning hours. At this time would guess the severe
threat could last into around 09Z over the Rio Grande Plains.

Most of the models depict a shortwave mid level ridge over Texas to
combine with the overworked low level airmass. Thus low chance PoPs
over eastern counties and little to no rain is expected over western
counties for most of daytime hours Saturday into Saturday night.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Sunday should be the driest day of the forecast, but still will
carry low chances for some afternoon convection. Another shortwave
to move through the area from the southwest leading to storm
development over the higher terrain in Mexico, then moving east into
the Rio Grande Plains Sunday night. Continued disturbances Monday,
along with a cold front positioned to our north will enhance rain
chances Monday into Tuesday. By mid to late week, a deepening long-
wave trough that extends through the Plains into Mexico will fire
off more shortwaves through the area into the end of the week. This
extended wet pattern could lead to isolated areas of flash flooding,
as there has been little time to recover from the past rain events.
Temperatures will be mild and slightly below normal, though the
humidity will make it feel warmer.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  83  69  82  68 /  70  40  10  30  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  67  83  68  82  68 /  70  40  -   20  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  85  69  84  69 /  80  30  -   20  -
Burnet Muni Airport            67  82  66  81  67 /  70  40  -   20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  89  74  88  73 /  60  10  20  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  82  67  81  67 /  70  40  10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             69  87  70  86  70 /  80  20  -   10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  84  68  83  68 /  70  30  -   20  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  84  69  84  69 /  70  50  10  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  85  69  84  70 /  80  30  -   20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  87  71  86  71 /  80  30  -   20  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...YB
Decision Support...33

Hazardous weather outlook, May 28, 12:30 PM CDT, 7 hours 19 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 28, 6:26 PM CDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

TXZ171-172-190-290000-
Blanco TX-Llano TX-Burnet TX-
626 PM CDT Fri May 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BLANCO...
SOUTHEASTERN LLANO AND SOUTHWESTERN BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
CDT...

At 625 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Kingsland to 7 miles west of Horseshoe Bay.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Burnet, Marble Falls, Kingsland, Round Mountain, Buchanan Dam,
Gainesville, Granite Shoals, Horseshoe Bay, Meadowlakes, Highland
Haven, Inks Lake State Park, Longhorn Cavern State Park, Cottonwood
Shores and Sunrise Beach Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3085 9814 3045 9836 3049 9855 3079 9852
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 267DEG 29KT 3067 9849 3056 9851

CP

Local storm report, May 28, 6:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 28, 6:48 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

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Local storm report, May 28, 6:49 PM CDT, 1 hour before

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Local storm report, May 28, 6:55 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 28, 6:56 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 28, 7:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Lee, Travis, Williamson	59 min
May 28, 7:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Kerr, Real	57 min
May 28, 7:44 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Fayette	31 min
May 28, 7:48 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Travis	3 hr
May 28, 7:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Real	56 min
May 28, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Fayette, Gonzales, Lee	64 min
May 28, 8:20 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bandera, Gillespie, Kerr	3 hr
May 28, 8:24 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	EWX	Bastrop, Travis	3 hr
May 28, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Caldwell, Comal, Guadalupe, Hays	30 min
May 28, 8:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EWX	Fayette	32 min
May 28, 8:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Fayette, Lavaca, Lee	52 min
May 28, 8:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Comal, Kendall, Kerr and 3 more	61 min
May 28, 8:48 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Kendall, Kerr and 1 more	3 hr
May 28, 8:58 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Fayette, Lee	5 hr
May 28, 8:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Gonzales, Guadalupe	47 min
May 28, 9:00 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Caldwell, Comal, Guadalupe, Hays	3 hr
May 28, 9:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Hays and 2 more	56 min
May 28, 9:42 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	EWX	Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe	3 hr
May 28, 10:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Atascosa, Bastrop, Caldwell, DeWitt, Fayette, Gonzales and 5 more	21 min
May 28, 10:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	DeWitt, Gonzales, Karnes, Lavaca	58 min
May 28, 10:50 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EWX	Williamson	8 hr
May 28, 11:19 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	EWX	Blanco	7 hr
May 28, 11:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bandera, Kendall, Kerr	34 min
May 29, 12:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Gillespie, Kerr	36 min
May 29, 12:28 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe	3 hr
May 29, 12:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bandera, Kendall, Kerr	34 min
May 29, 1:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Comal, Kendall	49 min
May 29, 1:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Gonzales, Guadalupe	57 min
May 29, 2:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Val Verde	49 min
May 29, 2:21 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Val Verde	54 min
May 29, 3:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Val Verde	89 min
May 29, 3:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Edwards, Kinney, Real, Val Verde	70 min
May 29, 4:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Kinney, Uvalde	52 min
May 29, 4:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Medina, Real, Uvalde	27 min
May 29, 5:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Maverick, Zavala	48 min
May 29, 5:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Dimmit, Maverick, Zavala	55 min
May 29, 5:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Atascosa, Frio, Medina	51 min
May 29, 6:28 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bandera, Edwards, Kerr, Real	3 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Texas, 2021 Every areal flood advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.