Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021

Key Messages:

- Severe weather and flash flooding expected this evening/overnight
across parts of the area.

- A flash flood watch is in effect from Thursday afternoon into
Saturday morning.

Atmospheric recover is underway with a strongly unstable airmass
already in place over far northwest Missouri into eastern Kansas.
The remainder of the area will continue to destabilize as further
surface heating/mixing and moisture advection occurs this
afternoon. Robust convection is expected to develop late this
afternoon into the early evening, most likely in areas of
northeast Kansas into northwest and northern Missouri. The initial
activity will have the potential to be semi-discrete, with the
potential for very large hail and an isolated tornado. Over time,
updrafts will tend to consolidate into one or more line(s) of
thunderstorms and move east/southeast across the CWA. An
increasing threat of damaging straight-line winds will materialize
with these storms. Over time, repeated rounds of convection over
the same areas will be possible into the evening and overnight
hours, with flash flooding a growing concern. The cold front is
expected to make slow progress southeastward on Friday, setting
the stage once again for another round of thunderstorms - with the
potential for severe weather and flash flooding for most areas
across the CWA.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2021

Thunderstorms are moving into far NE KS and NW MO. These storms
are expected to merge into a line and start moving southward
during the evening and overnight hours. STJ is first with time of
arrival within the next hour or two. The complex is expected to
make it to MCI/MKC around 03Z-04Z then IXD shortly thereafter.
Expected hazards include heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty
winds, and hail. Thunderstorms are expected to linger behind the
line slowly following it out of the area after midnight. Another
band of showers is possible at IXD during the morning hours
before sunrise.

Friday should see a break in the thunderstorm activity for most of
the morning and much of the afternoon. Southerly winds are
expected throughout the day Friday. Storms with heavy rain,
frequent lightning, hail, and high winds are expected to return
Friday evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
522 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
522 AM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of thunderstorms will work south through the region this
morning. Gusty winds will be possible with this line of storms.
Additional storms are expected to develop this evening. Some of these
storms will be capable of producing large hail to two inches in
diameter, winds up to 80 mph, locally heavy rainfall leading to flash
flooding and isolated tornadoes.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Additional thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon/evening and
Saturday afternoon/evening. Some of these storms could produce large
hail and damaging winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
724 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

MOZ006-007-250115-
Putnam MO-Mercer MO-
724 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND CENTRAL
MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Princeton, or 20 miles north of Trenton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton, Mercer, Powersville, South Lineville and Mill Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9318 4027 9356 4034 9364 4038 9375
      4058 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 220DEG 20KT 4038 9360

Kurtz