Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Key Points:

-Wet conditions are focus in the short term, with band of 4-10
inches of rainfall from Falls City Nebraska to Marshall MO.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next 48
hours.  With very wet atmosphere and fairly deep warm cloud layer
depths, set up is nearly ideal to lead to heavy rainfall across the
area.

Detailed discussion...

Low level jet feeding into the central plains continuing to promote
shower and thunderstorm development across much of the area.  Of
greatest concern is area from Falls City to just north of St
Joseph, where 6-10 inches of rainfall has fallen over the past day
and thunderstorms continue to train across the area.  Of concern as
well is this bad that extends farther south and east towards
Marshall MO, which may be with additional heavy rain tonight. Models
suggest that the low level jet may try to reorient becoming more
westerly over time, potentially drawing drier air into the region
and allowing conditions to dry out a bit. With that said, have a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms moving out of central and
eastern Kansas towards the forecast area. Models are not handling
this area of convection well, so impacts with this system are
questionable at this point.  With the increased cloud cover and
potential precipitation, have lowered forecast highs some fore
today.

There are some hints that areas south of I-70 may try to break out
today, heat out and destabilize.  If these locations are able to
warm into the upper 80s, we will likely reach convective temperature
along with a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms.  With
precipitable water values above two inches and off the charts in
terms of sounding climatology, is a good set up for additional heavy
rain.  With southwest flow aloft, am concerned about the potential
for training storms through the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Thus, will maintain the flash flood watch for the entire
forecast area through Saturday morning.

30-40 knot low level jet is expected to develop tonight originating
in the open gulf drawing additional moisture into the region. Strong
mass convergence across central Missouri towards 00Z Saturday may
lead to additional precipitation, generally focused along and south
from near Princeton KS to Kirksville MO.  Low level jet may try to
lift north through the night, but northwest flow wrapping around
weak low pressure in Iowa may limit how far north low level jet can
expand north.

Wet pattern continues into Saturday with southwest flow continuing
ahead of slow moving cold front approaching from the west. WPC has
continued to outline the area in Moderate to Slight category for day
one and two Excessive Rainfall Outlook respectively.  Until the cold
front is able to work through the area on Saturday night, looks to
be quite wet.  Can't entirely rule out an isolated severe storm or
two as well, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25-35 knots.

Have not adjusted forecast beyond Saturday with active weather in
the short term.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 629 AM  CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Showers and thunderstorms are currently shifting east of the TAF
sites into central Missouri. While can't rule out a shower,
chances look to be low through the morning hours. Potential for
additional development this afternoon into tonight again, with the
potential for heavy rainfall. Tried to focus thunderstorm mention
to most likely times.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261145-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected again today into tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to be most numerous after 3 pm today.
Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected with thunderstorms that
develop. A few of the stronger storms may produce hail to the size of
half dollars and wind gusts up to 65 mph.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible on Saturday. The
area of greatest concern on Saturday is mainly south of I-70. A few
of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
609 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLARKSDALE              39.81N 94.55W
06/25/2021                   DEKALB             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE CLOSED. WATER
            RESCUES WERE TAKING PLACE IN CLARKSDALE PER DEKALB COUNTY
            SHERIFFS OFFICE.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE BOONVILLE          38.97N 92.74W
06/25/2021                   COOPER             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING OVER HIGHWAY B AND HIGHWAY 87 IN BOONVILLE.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CARROLLTON              39.36N 93.50W
06/25/2021                   CARROLL            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS CARROLL COUNTY INCLUDING IN
            CARROLLTON ARE IMPASSIBLE DUE TO RUNNING WATER FROM HEAVY
            RAIN.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW RICHMOND          39.27N 93.98W
06/25/2021                   RAY                MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES ACROSS RAY COUNTY

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GALLATIN                39.91N 93.96W
06/25/2021  M4.80 INCH       DAVIESS            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AS OF 640 AM.

&&

JL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     HEAVY RAIN       TRENTON                 40.08N 93.62W
06/25/2021  M3.73 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JL