Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 327 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Key Points:

-Wet conditions are focus in the short term, with band of 4-10
inches of rainfall from Falls City Nebraska to Marshall MO.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next 48
hours.  With very wet atmosphere and fairly deep warm cloud layer
depths, set up is nearly ideal to lead to heavy rainfall across the
area.

Detailed discussion...

Low level jet feeding into the central plains continuing to promote
shower and thunderstorm development across much of the area.  Of
greatest concern is area from Falls City to just north of St
Joseph, where 6-10 inches of rainfall has fallen over the past day
and thunderstorms continue to train across the area.  Of concern as
well is this bad that extends farther south and east towards
Marshall MO, which may be with additional heavy rain tonight. Models
suggest that the low level jet may try to reorient becoming more
westerly over time, potentially drawing drier air into the region
and allowing conditions to dry out a bit. With that said, have a
broad area of showers and thunderstorms moving out of central and
eastern Kansas towards the forecast area. Models are not handling
this area of convection well, so impacts with this system are
questionable at this point.  With the increased cloud cover and
potential precipitation, have lowered forecast highs some fore
today.

There are some hints that areas south of I-70 may try to break out
today, heat out and destabilize.  If these locations are able to
warm into the upper 80s, we will likely reach convective temperature
along with a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms.  With
precipitable water values above two inches and off the charts in
terms of sounding climatology, is a good set up for additional heavy
rain.  With southwest flow aloft, am concerned about the potential
for training storms through the afternoon and into the evening
hours. Thus, will maintain the flash flood watch for the entire
forecast area through Saturday morning.

30-40 knot low level jet is expected to develop tonight originating
in the open gulf drawing additional moisture into the region. Strong
mass convergence across central Missouri towards 00Z Saturday may
lead to additional precipitation, generally focused along and south
from near Princeton KS to Kirksville MO.  Low level jet may try to
lift north through the night, but northwest flow wrapping around
weak low pressure in Iowa may limit how far north low level jet can
expand north.

Wet pattern continues into Saturday with southwest flow continuing
ahead of slow moving cold front approaching from the west. WPC has
continued to outline the area in Moderate to Slight category for day
one and two Excessive Rainfall Outlook respectively.  Until the cold
front is able to work through the area on Saturday night, looks to
be quite wet.  Can't entirely rule out an isolated severe storm or
two as well, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 25-35 knots.

Have not adjusted forecast beyond Saturday with active weather in
the short term.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

Complicated aviation forecast this afternoon and evening. MVFR
ceilings will likely linger, with brief dips to IFR at times.
Biggest aviation impact will be thunderstorm development through
the mid to late afternoon. Area airfields along and south of the
Missouri River valley are most likely to be impacted. Best
estimate for timing is 20 to 22Z. Through 05 to 06Z expect
isolated showers, but impacts to sites improving. Winds will
generally remain out of the south through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261145-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
643 AM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected again today into tonight.
Thunderstorms are expected to be most numerous after 3 pm today.
Areas of heavy rainfall can be expected with thunderstorms that
develop. A few of the stronger storms may produce hail to the size of
half dollars and wind gusts up to 65 mph.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Locally heavy rainfall will once again be possible on Saturday. The
area of greatest concern on Saturday is mainly south of I-70. A few
of the stronger storms may produce gusty winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
850 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 AM     FLASH FLOOD      POLO                    39.56N 94.04W
06/25/2021                   CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

            SEWAGE TREATMENT PLANT FOR POLO IS FLOODED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
900 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE POTTER             39.40N 95.12W
06/25/2021                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            30X40 BARN BLOWN DOWN. LARGE TREE LIMBS
            (APPROX 12 IN. DIAMETER) SNAPPED. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
908 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE POTTER             39.40N 95.12W
06/25/2021                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 2
            SE POTTER. 30X40 BARN BLOWN DOWN. LARGE TREE
            LIMBS (APPROX 12 IN. DIAMETER) SNAPPED. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
920 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ELWOOD                  39.76N 94.87W
06/25/2021  M10.50 INCH      DONIPHAN           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT MEASURED 10.5 IN. IN RAIN
            GAUGE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
934 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BOONVILLE               38.96N 92.74W
06/25/2021  M6.57 INCH       COOPER             MO   COCORAHS

            OBSERVER REPORTED 6.57 IN. OVER THE PAST 24
            HOURS. 5.93 IN. OCCURRED SINCE 9PM THURSDAY.

&&

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1104 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     FLOOD            1 NE ORRICK             39.22N 94.12W
06/25/2021                   RAY                MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF FLOODING ALONG 210
            HIGHWAY INCLUDING A FLOODED GAS STATION.

0819 AM     FLOOD            EXCELSIOR SPRINGS       39.34N 94.23W
06/25/2021                   CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            INTERSECTION OF RIVER AND MARIETTA STREETS
            FLOODED.

0824 AM     FLOOD            EXCELSIOR SPRINGS       39.34N 94.23W
06/25/2021                   CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS A BASEBALL FIELD FLOODED.

0828 AM     FLOOD            9 E LAWSON              39.44N 94.04W
06/25/2021                   RAY                MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF A POND OVERTOPING.

0900 AM     FLOOD            POLO                    39.55N 94.04W
06/25/2021                   CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF CARS SUBMERGED UNDER
            RAILROAD VIADUCT.

0925 AM     FLOOD            5 N COWGILL             39.63N 93.93W
06/25/2021                   CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF FLOODING ALONG HWY F.
            ESTIMATED ABOUT 1/2 MILE OF ROAD FLOODED.

1048 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW PRAIRIE HOME       38.78N 92.63W
06/25/2021  M7.20 INCH       COOPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER MEASURED 7.2 INCHES OF
            RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

1050 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PRAIRIE HOME            38.81N 92.59W
06/25/2021  M5.50 INCH       COOPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED 5.5 IN. OF
            RAINFALL MEASURED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

1056 AM     FLOOD            BOONVILLE               38.96N 92.75W
06/25/2021                   COOPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STATE HWYS 5, B, AND 87 ALL CLOSED IN
            LOCATIONS DUE TO FLOODING.

1057 AM     FLOOD            BOONVILLE               38.96N 92.75W
06/25/2021                   COOPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS RURAL GRAVEL ROADS CLOSED ACROSS
            COOPER COUNTY.

1100 AM     FLOOD            BRAYMER                 39.59N 93.80W
06/25/2021                   CALDWELL           MO   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS OF SEVERAL
            ROADS FLOODED AROUND AND NEAR TOWN.

&&