Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

October 10, 2021Cook County, Minnesota

NWS Duluth, MN issued this special weather statement at Oct 10, 2021, 5:40 PM CDT for Cook County, Minnesota. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 10, 2021, 5:40 PM CDT (22:40 UTC)
Expired: Oct 10, 2021, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN
Hail: 0.25 in
Wind: 40

County Cook County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1493 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 10, 4:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 10, 4:29 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
429 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Summary: More chances for rain after thunderstorms today.
Temperatures start to drop to more seasonal levels later this week.

A stacked low moving over the Dakotas and western MN continues to
meander its way across our area, with the surface occluded front
along Hwy 2 in MN. Strong synoptic forcing from a 300mb jet streak
and upper level cut off low has combined with substantial effective
shear, MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg, and little to no capping. This has
allowed storms, some severe, to initiate over NE MN and the Bayfield
Peninsula, particularly in areas of less cloud cover and efficient
daytime heating. Storms will push north-northeastward this afternoon
and early this evening, with hail, strong winds, and brief tornadoes
possible. Severe storms are most likely north of Hwy 2 in both MN
and WI. Dry and much more stable air pushing in behind this
disturbance should allow any severe threat to come to an end quickly
around midnight. Some scattered showers are possible overnight over
the Iron Range and International Border with wrap around
precipitation as this system departs.

Global models are in amazingly decent agreement through all of the
work week. An upper level cutoff low moves over southern Wisconsin
Monday night into Tuesday morning, which will bring some chances for
rain to the eastern half of the CWA in the occluded quadrant of that
system. Continuing in our current pattern of stacked 500mb lows, yet
another is projected to sweep over the Upper Midwest Wednesday night
into Thursday, accompanied by a plume of Gulf moisture, which will
bring in high chances for widespread rain across the region. This
strong system should allow cooler, more seasonable temperatures to
return to the region with highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s
by Thursday. For our known cold local spots, this will likely be the
next chance for frost since early September!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Mixed conditions across the region this afternoon will continue
through much of the TAF period. Some scattered thunderstorms are
possible early this afternoon at BRD and INL before more widespread
thunderstorms are expected to cross from southwest to northeast late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most storms should be out of
the area by midnight. IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected to build in
behind the thunderstorms early Monday morning at all terminals
except HYR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Thunderstorm chances over western Lake Superior will continue this
evening until storms move out of the region late tonight. Gusty east
winds along the North Shore should dissipate this evening as winds
turn and become gusty from the southwest overnight into Monday
morning. A brief period of these strong southwest winds will lead to
a period of 3 to 5 foot waves along the North Shore northeast of
Taconite Harbor. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for tomorrow
morning. Winds will continue from the southwest through the day
Monday but calm down as the pressure gradient lessens in the
afternoon. Winds turn from the north Tuesday 10-15 knots. There are
chances for rain over western Lake Superior early Tuesday morning
and Wednesday evening into Thursday. Overall, conditions on Superior
will be generally unsettled for much of this week, in a much more
typical October fashion.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  63  53  63 /  20  10  20  20
INL  52  63  48  60 /  70  20  10  10
BRD  48  66  49  63 /  40   0   0  10
HYR  48  65  51  64 /   0  20  40  20
ASX  50  68  52  65 /  30  20  50  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140-141.

&&

DISCUSSION...Levens/Unruh
AVIATION...Levens/Melde
MARINE...Levens/Unruh

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 10, 5:32 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 10, 4:57 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
457 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MNZ012-102230-
Northern Cook/Northern Lake MN-
457 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lake County
through 530 PM CDT...

At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Whyte, or 33 miles southeast of Ely, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow unsecured
         objects around. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Whyte, Isabella, Dumbbell Lake, and Greenwood Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors, including anyone on or in the water, should seek
shelter inside a sturdy building or hard topped vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4771 9119 4740 9141 4737 9147 4742 9169
      4780 9156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 199DEG 26KT 4747 9153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Melde

Special weather statement, Oct 10, 5:15 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
515 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MNZ011-012-102245-
Northern Cook/Northern Lake MN-North St. Louis MN-
515 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern St.
Louis and northwestern Lake Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 15 miles south of Rainy Lake East, to Boundary
Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, to 7 miles north of Burntside Lake,
moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow unsecured
         objects around. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern St.
Louis and northwestern Lake Counties, including the following
locations... Lac la Croix, Lake Agnes, Crooked Lake and Fourtown
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors, including anyone on or in the water, should seek
shelter inside a sturdy building or hard topped vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4833 9205 4832 9200 4827 9201 4824 9197
      4825 9195 4823 9196 4824 9189 4821 9186
      4821 9182 4820 9179 4820 9172 4817 9172
      4817 9170 4812 9171 4811 9169 4809 9169
      4799 9205 4836 9216 4836 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 191DEG 23KT 4837 9199 4821 9187 4805 9198

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Melde

Local storm report, Oct 10, 5:20 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
520 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             2 WSW LUTSEN            47.62N 90.76W
10/10/2021  E0.50 INCH       COOK               MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA MPING.

&&

JJM

Special weather statement, Oct 10, 5:26 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
526 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

MNZ012-102300-
Northern Cook/Northern Lake MN-
526 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Cook and
northeastern Lake Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Forest Center, or 26 miles southeast of Ely, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow unsecured
         objects around. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Forest Center, Dumbbell Lake, southern Boundary Waters Canoe Area
Wilderness, Hudson Lake, Kawishiwi Lake, Isabella Lake, Alice Lake,
Thomas Lake, Perent Lake, Phoebe Lake, and Knife Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone outdoors, including anyone on or in the water, should seek
shelter inside a sturdy building or hard topped vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
northeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4760 9128 4769 9151 4808 9126 4795 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 209DEG 30KT 4772 9135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Melde

Local storm report, Oct 10, 5:33 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 10, 5:40 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 9, 8:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	37 min
Oct 10, 4:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Carlton	27 min
Oct 10, 8:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cass	33 min
Oct 10, 10:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Koochiching	26 min
Oct 10, 12:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	15 min
Oct 10, 12:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	14 min
Oct 10, 12:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	28 min
Oct 10, 12:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	27 min
Oct 10, 1:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	33 min
Oct 10, 1:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	25 min
Oct 10, 2:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Saint Louis	34 min
Oct 10, 2:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Saint Louis	13 min
Oct 10, 2:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Itasca, Koochiching, Saint Louis	34 min
Oct 10, 2:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	29 min
Oct 10, 2:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	18 min
Oct 10, 3:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	28 min
Oct 10, 3:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Koochiching	23 min
Oct 10, 3:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		21 min
Oct 10, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Lake, Saint Louis	31 min
Oct 10, 3:18 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		87 min
Oct 10, 3:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Saint Louis	18 min
Oct 10, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Lake, Saint Louis	49 min
Oct 10, 4:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		25 min
Oct 10, 4:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	21 min
Oct 10, 4:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		18 min
Oct 10, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	26 min
Oct 10, 4:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	32 min
Oct 10, 4:31 PM CDT	Small Craft Advisory	DLH		20 hr
Oct 10, 4:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	29 min
Oct 10, 4:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		27 min
Oct 10, 4:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		32 min
Oct 10, 4:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	33 min
Oct 10, 5:04 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		56 min
Oct 10, 5:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		30 min
Oct 10, 5:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	34 min
Oct 10, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Cook	47 min
Oct 10, 5:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Cook	39 min
Oct 10, 6:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	45 min
Oct 10, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		60 min
Oct 10, 12:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	31 min
Oct 10, 12:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	36 min
Oct 10, 1:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	16 min
Oct 10, 1:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	17 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.