Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

October 10, 2021Itasca County, Minnesota

NWS Duluth, MN issued this special weather statement at Oct 10, 2021, 12:47 PM CDT for Itasca County, Minnesota. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 10, 2021, 12:47 PM CDT (17:47 UTC)
Expired: Oct 10, 2021, 1:15 PM CDT
In force: 28 min
Issued by: NWS Duluth, MN
Hail: 0.88 in
Wind: 40

County Itasca County, MN

The radar

The Duluth radar (KDLH), 116 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1493 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -10 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 10, 12:29 PM CDT, 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 10, 12:29 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Summary: Active pattern over the weekend into late next week with
several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms for the
region.

An area of subsevere showers and thunderstorms are working their
way through the region this morning as an occluded upper level
low pressure system moves by to the west putting our CWA in an
area of isentropic lift. The upper level system is progged to move
northeast and be over the CWA by late this afternoon into the
early evening. As it moves into the western portion of the CWA it
is possible that low top convection will develop as the cold-core
low attributes to instability as shown in model soundings. That
combined with MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and dew points in the
60s, it appears that severe possibilities begin to ramp up later this
morning. Similar to the overnight convection, it is expected to
become linear and with bulk shear values near 40 knots supports
supercell development. As time progresses, instability increases
with MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg and lapse rates reaching 8 to
8.5 C/km, the potential for severe weather continues into the
afternoon. One area of concern is that models indicate dry air
wrapping into the system which could potentially shutoff
development of convection so this will be something to watch as
this system evolves through the day. At this time, the CWA is
placed in a marginal risk with the possibility of an increase to a
slight.

By Monday morning the upper level low pressure system will move
into southern Ontario giving the region a brief break from
precipitation until overnight Monday into Tuesday morning as
another low pressure moves in from the south. At this time, it
appears that NW WI will receive the bulk of the precipitation, but
this could easily change as we get closer to the event.

Last, but not least our last chance of precipitation comes over
night Wednesday into Thursday. This appears to be more dynamic
system comparable to what we are seeing today. It will be
interesting to see how this shapes up over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Mixed conditions across the region this afternoon will continue
through much of the TAF period. Some scattered thunderstorms are
possible early this afternoon at BRD and INL before more widespread
thunderstorms are expected to cross from southwest to northeast late
this afternoon and early this evening. Most storms should be out of
the area by midnight. IFR and LIFR ceilings are expected to build in
behind the thunderstorms early Monday morning at all terminals
except HYR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

Winds are out of the northeast 15 to 20 knots with gusts to near
25 knots with waves 3 to 5 feet from Grand Portage to Two Harbors.
Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued until this
afternoon. Similar conditions are expected at the head of the
lakes, but the Small Craft Advisory will be through mid-morning.
By this afternoon, winds will switch to the southeast and decrease
to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  51  63  53 /  80  20  10  20
INL  67  52  63  48 / 100  70  20  10
BRD  65  48  66  49 /  80  20   0   0
HYR  75  48  65  51 /  50  10  20  40
ASX  77  50  68  52 /  50  30  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>143.

&&

DISCUSSION...KSE
AVIATION...Levens/Melde
MARINE...KSE

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 10, 5:01 AM CDT, 7 hours 46 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 10, 8:42 AM CDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 10, 10:34 AM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 10, 12:03 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 10, 12:30 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 10, 12:31 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Oct 10, 12:47 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Duluth, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 9, 8:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	37 min
Oct 10, 4:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Carlton	27 min
Oct 10, 8:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cass	33 min
Oct 10, 10:34 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Koochiching	26 min
Oct 10, 12:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	15 min
Oct 10, 12:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	14 min
Oct 10, 12:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	27 min
Oct 10, 1:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	33 min
Oct 10, 1:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Itasca	25 min
Oct 10, 2:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Saint Louis	34 min
Oct 10, 2:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Saint Louis	13 min
Oct 10, 2:26 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Itasca, Koochiching, Saint Louis	34 min
Oct 10, 2:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	29 min
Oct 10, 2:42 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	18 min
Oct 10, 3:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	28 min
Oct 10, 3:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Koochiching	23 min
Oct 10, 3:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		21 min
Oct 10, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Lake, Saint Louis	31 min
Oct 10, 3:18 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		87 min
Oct 10, 3:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Saint Louis	18 min
Oct 10, 3:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Lake, Saint Louis	49 min
Oct 10, 4:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		25 min
Oct 10, 4:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	21 min
Oct 10, 4:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		18 min
Oct 10, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Saint Louis	26 min
Oct 10, 4:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	32 min
Oct 10, 4:31 PM CDT	Small Craft Advisory	DLH		20 hr
Oct 10, 4:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	29 min
Oct 10, 4:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		27 min
Oct 10, 4:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		32 min
Oct 10, 4:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	33 min
Oct 10, 5:04 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		56 min
Oct 10, 5:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH		30 min
Oct 10, 5:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Lake	34 min
Oct 10, 5:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Cook	47 min
Oct 10, 5:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Cook	39 min
Oct 10, 5:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	35 min
Oct 10, 6:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Cook	45 min
Oct 10, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	DLH		60 min
Oct 10, 12:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	31 min
Oct 10, 12:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	36 min
Oct 10, 1:14 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	16 min
Oct 10, 1:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DLH	Price	17 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.