Severe Thunderstorm Warning 205, NWS Dodge City, KS

881 
WWUS53 KDDC 130233
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
933 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

KSC189-130242-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-211013T0300Z/
Stevens KS-
933 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN STEVENS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 10107 3739 10097 3771 10090 3810 10081
      3814 10040 3772 10044 3700 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 258DEG 35KT 3810 10054 3771 10058 3701 10086 

$$

KSC055-069-081-119-175-130300-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-211013T0300Z/
Seward KS-Finney KS-Meade KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
933 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SEWARD...CENTRAL FINNEY...WESTERN MEADE...WESTERN GRAY AND
HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 932 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 14 miles west of Kalvesta to 10 miles northwest of
Montezuma to near Liberal, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Ingalls.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10107 3739 10097 3771 10090 3810 10081
      3814 10040 3772 10044 3700 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 258DEG 35KT 3810 10054 3771 10058 3701 10086 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

TATRO

597 
WWUS53 KDDC 130253
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
953 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

KSC055-069-081-119-175-130302-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-211013T0300Z/
Seward KS-Finney KS-Meade KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
953 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SEWARD...CENTRAL FINNEY...
WESTERN MEADE...WESTERN GRAY AND HASKELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000
PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 10107 3739 10097 3771 10090 3810 10081
      3814 10040 3772 10044 3700 10062
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 257DEG 62KT 3817 10015 3778 10019 3708 10048 

$$

SPRINGER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
835 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 824 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Key Messages...

Damaging winds, hail to quarter size and brief, weak tornado
spinups will continue to be the primary concerns this evening
unless we see the development of discrete supercells. The storm
line will sweep across western Kansas and into central Kansas
after midnight.

Technical discussion...

Convective mode has been mainly linear this evening despite the
strong shear profile. It's still possible for discrete storms to
develop; but the later we get into the evening the smaller the
chances. However, given the strong shear, any bows in the line
could result in enhanced storm relative shear and a brief tornado
spinup. But as long as convection stays linear, the primary
concern will be damaging straight line winds and hail to quarter
size.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...Significant Severe Weather Tonight, Including Tornadoes...

Early this afternoon, a major mid-latitude cyclone was maturing out
across western Colorado. A surface low continued to rapidly deepen
just lee of the Colorado Rockies, and the surface winds were
responding nicely with widespread south-southeast winds in the 20 to
25 knot range with higher gusts. Rapid northward transport of 60-65F
surface dewpoints were underway across the eastern Texas Panhandle
into west central Oklahoma.

Everything that was discussed in yesterday afternoon's Short Term
discussion remains valid as of this forecast update. A significant
severe weather event is about to unfold later on this evening. The
only thing that has really changed, and has become increasingly
concerning, is that the low level moisture (62-65F dewpoints) will
be making a run on southwest Kansas a little bit quicker than
previously forecast...and a bit farther west...such that areas along
and event a bit west of Highway 83 now have an increased risk of
significant severe weather, including tornadoes. The 02-05Z (9 PM to
Midnight CDT) time frame is of particular concern, as the latest
HRRR and RAP low level thermodynamic and shear parameters are well
into the tornado category...even significant tornado category...as a
large region will have 0-1km AGL storm-relative helicity in the 300-
400 m2/s2 during the 02-05Z time frame. This is also the best time
frame for discrete supercell mode.

If the storm mode remains primarily supercellular in the critical 02-
05Z time frame, we have to face the possibility of long-track
significant tornadoes covering potentially 10s of miles. This is
extremely unusual for far western Kansas to see tornadic storms
racing northeast at 50+ mph, but this is exactly what we may be
dealing with tonight. This puts much more land at risk, obviously,
with such fast storm motions. This will also present a challenge for
warning forecasters tonight given such fast, forward storm (tornado)
motion. Eventually, the primary severe weather mode will become more
linear in nature as the risk shifts east by/shortly after midnight.
All in all, a dangerous night of severe storms is still on track for
much of the southwest Kansas region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

The next storm system slated to impact the region will move across
late Thursday into early Friday, however the surface front is
expected to remain just south of the DDC forecast area, so the
severe weather potential will remain south and east of southwest
Kansas. That said, we will need to watch our far southeast CWA
(mainly Barber County) as a surface wave along the front will be
pretty close to south central Kansas. We will keep some POPs in
Barber county area as a result. Light cold sector precipitation is
still expected across the remainder of our forecast area along the
mid level frontal zone late Thursday Night, but widespread moderate
or heavy rainfall is not expected. Fairly cool air behind the front
will filter in on Friday, and afternoon temperatures will struggle
to get out of the 50s. It still looks like there is the potential
for a frost/freeze across mainly far west central Kansas.
Frost/freeze headlines may be required if these model trends
continue out west. A high pressure ridge in the mid/upper
troposphere will move across western Kansas over the weekend with
much quieter weather forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

Low level stratus in central and south central Kansas will continue
to develop slowly northwestward into portions of southwest and west
central Kansas within a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow,
resulting in MVFR cigs in vicinity of KDDC, KHYS, and potentially
KGCK through mid/late evening. IFR cigs cannot be ruled out at KDDC.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
ahead of a strong frontal boundary edging into extreme southwest
Kansas generally after 01Z, then spread eastward across the remainder
of southwest Kansas into central/south central Kansas through 07Z,
affecting all TAF sites. The main impacts will be damaging winds,
large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Prevailing southeasterly winds
15 to 30kt will continue ahead of the aformentioned approaching
frontal boundary, then turn west-southwesterly around 10-20kt
behind the boundary as it pushes eastward overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  67  42  67 /  90   0   0  10
GCK  40  65  38  63 /  80   0   0   0
EHA  42  70  39  66 /  30   0   0   0
LBL  41  69  38  68 /  60   0   0   0
HYS  46  65  40  62 /  90   0   0  10
P28  53  70  48  73 /  90  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-130700-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
200 AM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 /100 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Storm development likely late Tuesday afternoon with initial
threats of large hail over 2 inches in diameter along with a few
possible tornadoes. As storms move northeast and expand into more
of a line, damaging winds will become the main threat with quarter
sized hail possible into the evening hours through midnight before
pushing off to the east and northeast. Gusty southeast winds
expected through the day Tuesday with 20-30 mph gusts in the
morning increasing to 40-45 mph by the afternoon. A cold front
will drop through southwest Kansas later in the evening turning
winds out of the north and diminishing into the overnight hours
and Wednesday morning.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Below freezing temperatures are looking more likely for areas
along and west of the Hwy 83 corridor and to the Colorado state
line for Saturday morning. Another cold front will drop through
the high plains Thursday with high pressure building in behind it
on Friday. Clear skies and light winds overnight Friday into
Saturday morning, will allow for a strong radiational cooldown
seeing 30s for the entire viewing area in addition to the
aforementioned below freezing areas of concern. No other hazards
are expected for the remainder of the long term outlook.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - No hazards

* Thursday
  - No hazards

* Friday
  - No hazards

* Saturday
  - Freeze: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - No hazards

* Monday
  - No hazards

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 5PM CDT along and east of
the Hwy 83 corridor.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
721 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

KSZ061-062-074-130100-
Stanton KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-
721 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Hamilton, west
central Kearny and Stanton Counties through 800 PM CDT/700 PM MDT/...

At 721 PM CDT/621 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Towner
to 17 miles south of Coolidge. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Coolidge around 630 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT/1000 PM MDT/ for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10204 3827 10165 3826 10154 3750 10153
      3752 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 193DEG 100KT 3837 10200 3779 10205

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
743 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

KSZ074-075-084-085-130115-
Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
743 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Morton, southwestern
Grant, southeastern Stanton and western Stevens Counties through 815
PM CDT...

At 743 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rolla, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Big Bow and Ulysses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10194 3749 10190 3765 10130 3700 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 211DEG 57KT 3715 10171

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
811 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             16 NNW MANTER           37.75N 101.94W
10/12/2021  E1.25 INCH       HAMILTON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
831 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 S BIG BOW            37.40N 101.54W
10/12/2021  M61 MPH          STANTON            KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION EW7515 JOHNSON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
842 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             3 SSW HUGOTON           37.14N 101.36W
10/12/2021  E1.00 INCH       STEVENS            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
855 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE GARDEN CITY       37.98N 100.84W
10/12/2021  M58 MPH          FINNEY             KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KS010 US-50 @ K-156 BRIDGE
            GARDEN CITY.

&&