Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
333 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level ridge will remain positioned just east of Cape
Hatteras today. A cold front over the Great Lakes will push
southeast across Pennsylvania Saturday, then high pressure will
build into the region late in the weekend. The remnants of
Tropical Storm Fred could potentially lift north into Pennsylvania
by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Heating of moist, unstable air mass, combined with arrival of
the vort max/lifting, is resulting in development of
thunderstorms which will continue this afternoon and into this evening.
SPC marginal severe threat painted across entire CWA, with far
southwest corner in SLGT risk and a SLGT added over the lower
susq with the early afternoon.

SVR watches 436 (lower Susq Valley) til 00Z and 437 (northeast)
til 03Z coordinated with SPC. Added potential for gusty and
damaging winds to wx grids accordingly.

Pvs discussion...
Anomalous upper level ridge positioned just east of Cape
Hatteras will bring another day of high heat and humidity to
Central Pa. Heat advisory and excessive heat warning remain in
effect for this afternoon based on fcst max heat indices of
100-105F across much of the southeast half of the CWA. No reason
to deviate significantly from yesterday's highs, as this part
of the state will remain in the same air mass as Thursday.
Latest GEFS and ECENS 2m/850mb temp plumes support another day
of highs in the low to mid 90s across the southeast part of the
forecast area accompanied by high humidity.

Waning convection is anticipated this evening, as vort max exits
the region. However, cold front pushing in from the Grt Lks is
likely to be accompanied by scattered showers well into the
night across the northwest counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid level trough and best large scale forcing are progged to
pass north of Pa Saturday. However, high pwats and low level
convergence are enough to maintain the chance of showers along
surface cold front, as it sags southward through the forecast
area Saturday. Latest operational and ensemble models indicate
there will be enough pre-frontal, diurnal heating and resulting
instability to support the chance of thunderstorms across the
southeast corner of the forecast area. Otherwise, expect
brightening skies for much of the region by afternoon, as much
drier air filters in on northerly flow behind the front.
Ensemble 2m temp plumes indicate highs will be around 10F cooler
than today, with readings Saturday afternoon ranging from the
mid 70s over the northern tier, to the mid 80s in the southern
valleys.

Surface high and associated low pwat air mass are progged to
build into the region from the Grt Lks Saturday and Sunday,
supplying fair weather and low humidity. Position of surface
high settling into northern Pa should result in efficient
radiational cooling with readings likely dipping into the upper
40s in the northern valleys Sunday morning, along with patchy
valley fog.

Model RH profiles support mostly sunny skies Sunday across central
and northern PA with a mixture of clouds and sun across the
south. Mixing down ensemble mean 850mb temps of around 12C
translates to expected highs ranging from the mid 70s over the
higher elevations of the Alleghenies, to the low 80s in the
valleys from I-80 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain centered over New England and the
northern Mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. Then the ridge axis
will shift a little further east allowing moisture to move
northward along the spine of the Appalachians. Also the upper
level ridge axis will shift east with southwest flow aloft
bringing increased clouds.

Temperatures next week will be relatively pleasant, as they
will stay mostly in the 70s and the lower 80s with persistent
cloud cover though mid week with low to mid 80s Thursday and
Friday. Dewpoints will be in the 50s and 60s Monday, but
increase a few degrees each day beginning Tuesday, contributing
to very muggy conditions mid to latter week.

There is a chance for daily rain showers and thunderstorms with
a northward surge of moisture from the remnants of Fred moving
into Tuesday. Much uncertainty remains. Scatter thunderstorms
are possible each afternoon all week mainly following a diurnal
trend with best POPs Tuesday afternoon into evening. There may
be some enhancement from shortwaves especially Thursday into
Friday but model uncertainties making timing anything
difficult.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moderate instability fuels another round of scattered t-storms
this afternoon/evening which may produce localized strong wind
gusts >40kts from 270-330 deg. Showers should accompany cold
front and impact the NW 1/2 of the airspace early tonight. Post-
frontal/upslope sub-VFR cigs are most likely at KBFD/KJST/KIPT
late tonight into early Saturday morning. Cloud deck erodes
Saturday afternoon.

As skies clear out and temps drop into the 50s, there could be
patchy valley fog especially in the northern tier late Saturday
night/early Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sun...AM Patchy valley fog northern 1/2. Otherwise, VFR.

Mon...Iso-sct PM t-storm impacts possible mainly SW 1/3.

Tue...Increasing coverage of showers/t-storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature of 94 degrees at Altoona tied the previous
record high set in 2016.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ026>028-035-
036-046-049>053-056-058-063.
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ057-
059-064>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald/Gartner
NEAR TERM...Gartner
SHORT TERM...Watson/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Watson/DeVoir/Gutierrez
AVIATION...Steinbugl/Gutierrez
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

PAZ057-059-064>066-142000-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-056-058-063-142000-
Franklin-Perry-Schuylkill-Cumberland-
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 436 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017>019-024-025-033-034-142000-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail are possible
late this afternoon or evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ026>028-035-142000-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-012-037-041-042-045-142000-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ046-049>053-142000-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

BG

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