Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
731 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Sweltering to dangerously hot conditions will last through
Friday. The hot and humid weather pattern will fuel rounds of
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and again
Friday afternoon. Relief from the oppressive heat will arrive
over the weekend with more pleasant conditions expected behind a
cold front. A heavy rain threat is possible into the middle of
next week in association with Fred.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quick evening update. Extended SVR Watch #431 for two hours
over western and central areas, and shaved 6 of my southeast
counties from the Watch as trigger will be lacking for severe
storms over the Lower Susq.

Marginally severe storms tracking into WC Mountains and Laurel
Highlands. Propagation is now bringing a discernible right turn
as we anticipated, and as storms weaken from the peak diurnal
intensity. Additional lines of storms, some still possibly severe,
will track over the aforementioned areas, with coverage and
intensity decreasing substantially east of I-99 and north of
I-80 heading through late evening and then fades into the wee
hours of Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Heat advisory and excessive heat warning remains in effect for Friday
afternoon based on fcst max heat indices of 100-105F across much
of the southeast half of the CWA.

A few strong to severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible again Friday afternoon within a similar
convective environment (weak vertical shear/strong conditional
instability).

The main cold front is not progged to clear southern PA until
Saturday night, so a chance of t-storms will continue in this
area on Saturday. A 24hrMaxTChange of ~10 degrees is fcst to
start the weekend (mid 70s north to mid 80s southeast) which
will put a nice dent into the recent heat wave. Refreshingly
cool/drier (less humid) air will continue to be directly into
CPA via northerly flow finally setting up a very comfortable
Saturday night with minTs ranging from around 50F in the north
to the lower 60s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds overhead for the remainder of the weekend.
Sunday will be a gorgeous day with seasonable and below-
average high temperatures, low humidity, and mostly clear skies.
Enjoy it while it lasts as the nice conditions will not last
for long.

Temperatures next week will be relatively pleasant, as they will
stay mostly in the 70s and the lower 80s with persistent cloud
cover. However, dewpoints will be in the 60s and 70s,
contributing to very muggy conditions nearly all week long.
There is a chance for daily rain showers and thunderstorms next
week with a northward surge of moisture from the remnants of
Fred.

The Euro and the GFS have wildly different solutions on how they
handle the progression of the remnants of Fred next week. The
Euro brings Fred remnants straight to central PA, which could
contribute to enhanced rainfall for the mid/end of next week.
The GFS, however, does not bring Fred remnants to our CWA,
disintegrating Fred long before it gets close to PA. Regardless
of these different solutions, both models indicate a surge of
moisture coming in from the south. Expect muggy and wet
conditions with relatively mild temperatures next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Line of convection across west central PA moving east at 00Z.
This line will hold together as it approaches KJST...KAOO...KUNV
and KIPT before diminishing in coverage and intensity with the
lost of heating.

Outside of the convection look for VFR flying, though patchy
fog is possible again tonight, especially in areas that see
rainfall today. Look for more convection moving west to east
again on Friday.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Scattered tsra impacts possible.

Sun...Dry conditions with mainly VFR conditions.

Mon...Scattered PM tsra impacts possible.

Tue...Widespread shra/tsra.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record rainfall of 1.27 inches was set at Harrisburg
yesterday (8/11/21). This broke the previous record of 0.91
inches set in 2015.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for PAZ026>028-035-
036-046-049>053-056-058-063.
Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM EDT Friday for PAZ057-
059-064>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Gartner
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Gartner
LONG TERM...Gutierrez
AVIATION...Ross/Gartner
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

PAZ057-059-064>066-132330-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Excessive Heat Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ056-058-063-132330-
Perry-Schuylkill-Cumberland-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

In addition to the heat, a few strong to severe storms with locally
damaging wind gusts will be possible Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024-025-033-034-045-132330-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-
Bedford-Southern Clinton-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ026>028-035-036-046-049>053-132330-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ010>012-041-042-132330-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-037-132330-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
819 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W SLATE RUN           41.47N  77.50W
08/12/2021                   LYCOMING           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            *** 1 INJ *** SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND ONE INDIVIDUAL
            SEVERELY INJURED BY A FALLEN TREE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP2100035

ANW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
833 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

PAZ019-027-045-130045-
Southern Clinton PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
833 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Mifflin, southeastern Centre and southeastern Clinton Counties
through 845 PM EDT...

At 833 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Aaronsburg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Woodward, Lamar, Millheim, Aaronsburg, Rebersburg, Spring Mills,
Coburn, Madisonburg, Mackeyville, Poe Valley State Park and Loganton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central and north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4088 7731 4085 7736 4076 7735 4078 7760
      4105 7753 4109 7725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 250DEG 22KT 4091 7746

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff

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