Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1201 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High humidity and hot temperatures will occur for much of this
week and the upcoming weekend as well with temperatures above
normal most days. There will also be showers and thunderstorms,
mainly during the afternoons and evenings into the middle of the
week, some of which could contain gusty winds and locally heavy
rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Atmosphere beginning to refuel itself for another round or two
of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. 0-3 KM Bulk shear
is about 10 kts weaker compared to Sunday, but layer PWATs are
very similar - in the 1.5 to 2 inch range. Hodographs are more
linear today per latest NAM/GFS soundings.

The heavy rain threat is back, too and per WPC's ERO and hi res
meso models, the focus for convection today appears to be where
it just rained from this batches of storms Sunday.

Not only did this rain likely lower the FFG, but it is also the
area pointed to by WPC and most mdl guidance as having the
heaviest rainfall this aftn- early tonight. Passing onto the
dayshift the call as to whether/not to issue a flash flood
watch. It looks like a 60/40 thing at this point, with juicy
airmass and the potential for 1-2" rain in an hour or so. But,
some uncertainty still exists in the placement of heaviest
rain/storms. Local guidance is to wait until a few hours before
the threat begins, allowing the CAMs to give us better and more-
focused guidance.

Convective initiation should be over the hill tops and near the
wavy-ill-defined boundary. The boundary appears to be over the
northern tier at 09Z. A lake-breeze boundary will also pop some
convection early this aftn. Storms in the ridge-and-valley
region will likely be going up around noon or 1 PM.

With plenty of sun across the south this morning, the heat
should get Lancaster Co and some of the urban areas nearby close
to 100 heat index. The coverage and duration of the 100 HI is
expected to be small and brief. Will hold off on a heat advy at
this point, too.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
The evening convection will likely die off as it did Sun
evening, ending W-E through the late evening and being pretty
much gone about midnight. SOme heavy rain will still create the
risk of flooding through midnight. It will be another muggy
night with mins hold up at 70-75F in the east, and 65-70F
elsewhere. Fog is again possible as breaks in the clouds are
expected.

Tuesday should also hold strong SHRA/TSRA. The CAPE looks even
bigger (1500-2500), and shear similar. The flooding risk
remains about the same, and will be largely based on the
placement of the heaviest rain on Monday. Maxes will be a couple
of degs hotter, in the 80s and lower 90s. Thus, the risk for
the heat index to reach 100 is a little greater.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much change today in the extended forecast department.

Still looking like Thursday would be the one day with the
best chance to be mainly dry this week. Models today slightly
less wet today with Thursday.

Still not clear cut for later next weekend. Most of the
guidance the last few days has shown a mixed signal for if
we can get some dry weather. The 12Z EC today shows a better
chance for drier weather on next Sunday.

More detail below.

Large scale upper level ridge across the western states will
keep a weakness in the upper level flow over the eastern states
for the new week. Dewpoints will come up high, but 500 mb
heights come up toward 594 dm. Thus while showers and storms
will occur from time to time next week, it will not be wet all
the time, given how warm aloft it will be. Main chance for rain
will be later in the afternoon and early evening.

Temperatures will run above normal again, but numbers not quite
there for any heat products. Main chance for coming close at
this point would be near Lancaster.

Best chance of any dry days will be Thursday. Still hints of a
lee-side trough across the east that day too, so an isolated
shower or storm could occur.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Earlier fog and shallow stratus has mixed out and expect a
several hour period of partly to mostly sunny skies to fuel the
airmass for areas of showers and thunderstorms during the mid
afternoon through early evening. Rinse and repeat with
convection fading late tonight with fog/low cloud restrictions
probable into early Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...A.M. low cigs/vis. Locally heavy showers and t-storms
with restrictions likely during the afternoon.

Thu-Fri...Isolated P.M. showers/t-storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record maximum rainfall of 2.17 inches was set at
Harrisburg yesterday (07-11-2021). This broke the old record of
1.40 inches set in 1920.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin/Gartner
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

PAZ004>006-131800-
Warren-McKean-Potter-
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain from
thunderstorms is possible and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ010>012-017>019-024>026-033>036-045-064-131800-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Adams-
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered, slow-moving showers and isolated strong thunderstorms
will produce localized heavy rain and gusty wind this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain from
thunderstorms is possible and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ037-041-042-046-049>053-056>059-063-131800-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Heavy
rain from thunderstorms is also possible and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ066-131800-
Lancaster-
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered, slow-moving showers and isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will produce localized heavy rain, gusty wind and
frequent lightning this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Heavy
rain from thunderstorms is also possible and may lead to flooding.

The heat index may reach 100 Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ065-131800-
York-
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain from
thunderstorms is possible and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ028-131800-
Juniata-
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Heavy
rain from thunderstorms is also possible and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ027-131800-
Mifflin-
152 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered, slow-moving showers and isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will produce localized heavy rain, gusty wind and
frequent lightning this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly in the afternoons and evenings. Heavy
rain from thunderstorms is also possible and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1255 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N NEWPORT             40.49N 77.13W
07/11/2021                   PERRY              PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ ***
            A TREE FELL ON A VAN TRAPPING THE FAMILY OF
            NINE IN THE VAN ON WEST JUNIATA PARKWAY IN
            HOWE TOWNSHIP. THERE WAS ONE INJURY
            REPORTED.

&&

ST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
215 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

PAZ066-121915-
Lancaster PA-
215 PM EDT Mon Jul 12 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LANCASTER COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

At 215 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Quarryville, moving east at 15 mph.

Torrential rain is expected.
Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Quarryville, Gap, Atglen, Christiana, Georgetown, Kirkwood and Buck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 7628 3989 7625 4003 7594 3996 7599
      3993 7598 3993 7600 3988 7599 3978 7619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 257DEG 14KT 3988 7615

Lambert