Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
425 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front draped near and just to the north of Route 322 in
Western and Central PA this afternoon will drift slowly north
through this evening, ushering in higher humidity and hotter
temperatures for the beginning of the upcoming week. This will
also increase the chance of mainly afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week, some
of which could contain gusty winds and locally heavy rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Small amount of CIN present in the soundings early this
afternoon has vanished, but rather weak mid-level lapse rates
are still preventing tall and well organized updrafts from
forming thus far.

As a potent shortwave and associated uvvel max approaching from
the PA/Ohio border will help to intensify the storms and bring a
few to several hour period of heavier rain across the NW half of
the CWA late today through the evening hours.

Target area for the heaviest rain (locally over 2 inches
possible) and flash flooding concerns appears to be across the
Ncent Mtns and portions of the Upper Mainstem of the Susq Valley
where FFG values are the lowest and last few runs of the
HRRR/RAP focus the best chc for two-three training TSRAs.

The best low-mid level shear and broad-looping hodographs up
through 2KM are INVOF KDUJ/KUNV and points just to the SE into
early this evening. This is where the greatest supercell/isolated
brief tornado risk will reside.

Precip will linger the longest across our NE zones tonight and
convection could back-build for up to several hours there later
tonight as the sfc warm front stalls out and the aforementioned
upper shortwave and associated speed max merges in with a larger
scale entrance region of an upper jet from the Finger Lakes
Region of NY to New England.

Min temps tonight in the 60s to low 70s in the SE will make it
feel much muggier than recent nights with a narrow T/Td spread
after midnight, leading to some patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
More of the same is in store for Monday with high PWATs and
perhaps better destabilization. However, some short wave ridging
is in place for some of the day. Might be tough to crank up
enough CAPE to make strong/severe storms. Maxes will probably be
5-8F higher on Mon vs. Sun. Most likely time for storms is the
late aftn around peak heating.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not much change today in the extended forecast department.

Still looking like Thursday would be the one day with the
best chance to be mainly dry this week. Models today slightly
less wet today with Thursday.

Still not clear cut for later next weekend. Most of the
guidance the last few days has shown a mixed signal for if
we can get some dry weather. The 12Z EC today shows a better
chance for drier weather on next Sunday.

More detail below.

Large scale upper level ridge across the western states will
keep a weakness in the upper level flow over the eastern states
for the new week. Dewpoints will come up high, but 500 mb
heights come up toward 594 dm. Thus while showers and storms
will occur from time to time next week, it will not be wet all
the time, given how warm aloft it will be. Main chance for rain
will be later in the afternoon and early evening.

Temperatures will run above normal again, but numbers not quite
there for any heat products. Main chance for coming close at
this point would be near Lancaster.

Best chance of any dry days will be Thursday. Still hints of a
lee-side trough across the east that day too, so an isolated
shower or storm could occur.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS likely to persist for most or all of the region near
and to the north of a line from KBFD to KUNV KSEG and KHZL
through early this evening with local IFR cigs and vsbys in
+RA/TSRA as a warm front has difficulty lifting slowly north
across the state. VFR to Tempo MVFR in SHRA/TSRA will occur
across the Laurel Highlands region and Scent PA.

Hires model guidance signals heavy downpours are most likely
across the northern 1/2 of the airspace later this
afternoon/evening, but confidence is low.

Cigs should trend steadily lower across the northern 1/2 late
today with MVFR-IFR conditions probable tonight into early
Monday morning. Showers and storms should fade after 06Z Mon.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Rounds of locally heavy showers and t-storms with
restrictions likely.

Thu...Low chance for isolated showers/t-storms.

Fri...Still a chance of showers and storms ahead of a cold
front.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

PAZ004-122100-
Warren-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavy rain is possible from several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, which could lead to localized flooding. Strong to
severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible late this
afternoon and early tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Monday
and Tuesday afternoon, and heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ037-122100-
Tioga-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Heavy rain is possible from several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms, which could lead to localized flooding. Strong to
severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible late this
afternoon and early tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Monday
and Tuesday afternoon, and heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-026>028-034>036-045-049-050-056-063>065-122100-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Union-Snyder-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-York-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Monday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ041-046-122100-
Northern Lycoming-Southern Lycoming-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Monday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ005-006-010-011-017-024-025-033-122100-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ066-122100-
Lancaster-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible late
today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The heat index could reach 100 degrees for a few hours both Monday
and Tuesday afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ042-053-122100-
Sullivan-Columbia-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Heavy rain is possible from several rounds of showers and
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, which could lead to
localized flooding and gusty winds late today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Monday
and Tuesday afternoon, and heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ051-052-057>059-122100-
Montour-Northumberland-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
816 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Heavy rain is possible from several rounds of showers and
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, which could lead to
localized flooding and gusty winds late today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible Monday
and Tuesday afternoon, and heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Martin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
922 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE NEWPORT           40.47N 77.09W
07/11/2021                   PERRY              PA   PUBLIC

            WIRES DOWN ALONG UPPER BAILEY ROAD IN MILLER
            TOWNSHIP.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

PAZ035-120200-
Fulton PA-
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FULTON COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM EDT...

At 932 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Warfordsburg, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warfordsburg, McConnellsburg, Big Cove Tannery, Needmore, Locust
Grove and Barnes Gap.

LAT...LON 3975 7836 3985 7829 4001 7791 3987 7798
      3982 7801 3972 7810 3972 7834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 245DEG 31KT 3976 7825

Jurewicz

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
937 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW LOWER ALLEN       40.21N 76.91W
07/11/2021                   CUMBERLAND         PA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN ON SPANGLERS MILL ROAD BETWEEN
            LISBURN ROAD AND THE MILL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
950 PM EDT SUN JUL 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0931 PM     TSTM WND GST     LOWER ALLEN             40.23N 76.91W
07/11/2021  M63 MPH          CUMBERLAND         PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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