Special Weather Statement, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
639 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

.AVIATION...

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the TAF period. Generally expect MVFR conditions with periods of
IFR/LIFR in and around areas of heavier rainfall. Winds will begin
to increase slightly by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 427 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/

DISCUSSION...

Made a quick update to the QPF across the northern Coastal Bend
and Victoria Crossroads. With moisture still in place and
precipitation expanding in coverage, the Victoria Crossroads
could receive as much as 4-6 inches of rain tonight through
Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...

Water vapor imagery indicates the mid-level low that has soaked
the area is still sitting over South Texas. Moisture continues to
stream into the area with more rain expected. Periods of heavy
rain will be likely overnight and through Friday. At this time,
another 2 to 4 inches looks possible across the northern Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads with 1 to 3 inches possible
elsewhere. SPC has put our coastal areas in a marginal risk for
severe weather-- specifically, tornados. Some areas of rotation
have been indicated on radar, so a few tornado warnings have
already been issued. Folks should stay aware of their local
weather conditions.

The low will finally begin to push to the west Friday, with
moisture becoming more limited Friday night. Rain chances should
diminish a bit by 7 PM Friday, so will let the Flash Flood Watch
that is in place ride until then.

Onshore flow will continue, leading to some minor coastal flooding
during periods of high tide, though with uncertainty, have not
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

For the longterm period, the overall synoptic pattern remains the
same with increasing heights over South Texas as a Great Basin mid-
level high nudges into TX. Mid-levels are expected to dry out over
the weekend. Model guidance continues to show a decrease in PWAT's
and am more confident that values will drop below 2.0" and likely
below normal by Sunday. Still may have some showers and storms on
Saturday but chances drop off dramatically for Sunday. This will be
followed by a slight increase in PoP's for the rest of the week as some
mid-level moisture returns but will be diurnally driven showers.

Temperatures will will trend warmer and peak on Monday, then should
hold steady due to cloud cover for the rest of the work week.

With more settled conditions expected in the long term, it's
important to note that hazards from this weeks flooding could extend
into next week as rivers and flooded areas slowly recede, especially
as any additional rainfall from storms albeit small will extend the
time it takes an water to drain.

Increased wave heights from swells related to Tropical Storm Elsa
are expected to increase the rip current risk and minor coastal
flooding is possible through the weekend until wave heights decrease
on Sunday.

MARINE...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight through
Friday. Some of this activity could produce brief waterspouts and
locally higher winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory will
continue through Friday morning. Chances for rain will begin to
gradually diminish Friday night. Moderate onshore flow will
continue Saturday through the weekend. Weak to moderate flow
returns Sunday but could become moderate at times through the end
of the period. Increased wave heights from swells related to
Tropical Storm Elsa continue through the weekend and are expected
to come down Sunday. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are
likely throughout this time-frame. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible daily from Saturday through the
end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  87  78  88  78  /  80  80  30  40  10
Victoria          75  84  77  88  76  /  80  80  40  40  10
Laredo            75  88  77  92  77  /  60  70  50  30  10
Alice             75  89  76  91  75  /  70  80  30  30  10
Rockport          77  87  79  89  80  /  90  80  40  40  10
Cotulla           75  87  76  94  76  /  70  70  50  40  10
Kingsville        75  88  78  89  76  /  80  80  30  30  10
Navy Corpus       78  87  81  88  81  /  90  80  40  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Goliad...
     Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland
     Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...Live Oak...Nueces Islands...Victoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday For the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out
     20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

LS/77...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
402 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-092115-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
402 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Coastal Bend and the
Victoria Crossroads through Friday evening.

Numerous showers and some thunderstorms are expected through
tonight, with heavy rainfall and flash flooding at times, mainly
from the Coastal Bend to the Victoria Crossroads.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Gulf facing beaches
of the Middle Texas coast tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads Friday.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
Friday. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding at times
Friday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible
over the weekend.

Minor coastal flooding will be possible Friday and Saturday in response to
Tropical Storm Elsa.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-092115-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
402 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Gulf
waters tonight. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and
isolated waterspouts.

Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf waters through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible starting
Friday and continuing through the next week. An increased risk of
rip currents is possible Friday and Saturday in response to
Tropical Storm Elsa.

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