River Flood Warning 16, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

714 
WGUS84 KCRP 190209
FLSCRP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
909 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following river in Texas...

   San Antonio River at Goliad affecting Refugio, Calhoun, Goliad 
   and Victoria Counties.

For the San Antonio River...including Goliad...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/crp.

&&


TXC057-175-391-469-191645-
/O.EXT.KCRP.FL.W.0016.210522T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLIT2.1.ER.210522T1730Z.210524T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
909 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

...The Flood Warning remains in effect...

The Flood Warning continues for
  the San Antonio River At Goliad.
* From late Friday night until further notice.
* At 8:00 PM CDT Tuesday, the stage was 5.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage early 
  Saturday afternoon and continue rising to 27.1 feet by early 
  Monday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet, minor lowland flooding occurs, with water 
  in the lowest areas of Goliad State Park. Livestock below Goliad 
  to the Guadalupe River confluence are cut off and potentially 
  drown.

&&


Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

  Fld   Observed                Forecasts (7 pm)
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

San Antonio River
Goliad            25.0  5.5   Tue 8 pm    6.0   11.8  20.6  25.5  26.
9





&&

LAT...LON 2871 9772 2878 9762 2855 9690 2848 9692
      2863 9759

$$

019 
WGUS84 KCRP 191452
FLSCRP

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
952 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Texas...

  San Antonio River At Goliad affecting Refugio, Calhoun, Goliad 
  and Victoria Counties.

TXC057-175-391-469-191600-
/O.CAN.KCRP.FL.W.0016.210522T0800Z-210519T1452Z/
/GLIT2.1.ER.210522T1730Z.210524T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
952 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

...The Flood Warning for the San Antonio River At Goliad has been 
cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the San Antonio River At Goliad.
* At 9:00 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 6.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to notable levels on Thursday, but 
  is now expected to crest below flood stage at 20.0 feet early 
  Friday afternoon. The river is expected to remain above caution 
  stage until Saturday morning.

&&


 Below are the latest river stages and stage forecasts:

  Fld   Observed                Forecasts (7 am)
Location          Stg   Stg   Day/Time    Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

San Antonio River
Goliad            25.0  6.4   Wed 9 am    11.1  18.9  15.5  10.5  10.
9





&&

LAT...LON 2871 9772 2878 9762 2855 9690 2848 9692
      2863 9759

$$

ANM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
104 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

.UPDATE...

18Z aviation discussion is included below.

In the wake of last night's MCS, a widespread cold pool was
keeping the area more stable than originally expected. PoPs today
were reduced for this factor, yet we still expect some
destabilization for at least isolated to scattered convection,
particularly over the Brush Country where CIN is slowly
diminishing. Severe convection is less likely today due to weaker
forcing and slightly more hostile thermodynamics aloft. Looking
farther ahead, it appears storm chances tonight may need to be
trimmed back until the strongest forcing arrives Wednesday morning
and afternoon with an upper trough still to our west, but will
inspect this further for this afternoon's package. No other
updates at this time.

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are on track to continue expanding over the
terminals this afternoon and lingering through Wednesday morning.
Few SHRA and some TS are possible this afternoon generally from
COT to ALI, but the greatest window for TS is focusing from Wed
morning through the afternoon as an upper disturbance lifts across
the region accompanied by a large line of storms, possibly severe.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 447 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...

Rain, rain, rain. That's the story of the short term. Luckily, for
today, it looks like there is only a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for most of the area, though those in the northern
portions of South Texas will have a chance of convection through
this evening. The good news is that PWATs are expected to be
around 1.5 inches through today which should keep rainfall rates
lower than we have seen in the previous days. The bad news is that
we remain in a Marginal risk for severe weather.

An upper level trough will squeeze over South Texas between two
areas of high pressure late Tuesday night into Wednesday allowing
moisture creep up on Tuesday night. A deep moisture axis will
develop over the Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads, with
PWATs around 2.0 inches Wednesday. A mid-level closed low will
open up and move to the northeast, sending energy south into the
area. With this expected, have kept PoPs at 80-90% across most of
the area. WPC has placed us in a Moderate for Excessive Rainfall.
Heavy rain can be expected across the area, with the heaviest
rainfall coincident with the moisture axis. This means:
if the moisture axis sets up further west, expect the forecast
areas of heavy rain to shift. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
through 18Z Thursday for all counties in the warning area.
Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to be 3 to 8 inches,
with the highest amounts expected across the Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads. There is also the potential for some strong
to severe weather as we remain in a Marginal risk for Wednesday.

Some good news? The threat for Coastal Flooding appears to have
waned, with tidal levels expected to be a bit lower. Also,
temperatures will be a little cooler under thick cloud cover, so
at least we won't be sweltering.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...

Scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the end of the work week and into the weekend due
to a series of upper disturbances.

Models are in fair agreement with a long wave trough draped across
TX Thursday becoming cut off over Deep S TX by Fri. This upper low
is progged to meander south of the area through the weekend
providing support for additional showers and thunderstorms. Models
at times develop weak surface trough across the CWA, which will
provide a focus for heavier rain. Am confident there will be
convection through the weekend, but much less confident on timing
and location of heavier rainfall. Rain chances and location will be
dependent on timing of embedded upper level short waves and
placement/timing of surface trough. For now kept close to the
blended models which show higher pops across the east and northeast
CWA where deeper moisture is progged to be located.

Due to mostly cloudy and at times wet conditions, temps will
generally remain below normal through the weekend into early next
week.

MARINE...

Moderate winds onshore flow will continue this morning, before
strengthening to moderate to strong flow this afternoon. A Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for this afternoon through Wednesday
evening. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
possible today and Wednesday, with periods of heavy rainfall that
could reduce visibility. A few storms may be strong to severe.
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will lead to periods of
advisory conditions through the week and into the weekend. Scattered
to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  76  84  69  80  /  20  70  90  80  50
Victoria          86  75  83  67  80  /  40  80  90  80  80
Laredo            97  74  84  69  88  /  10  70  90  50  20
Alice             91  75  86  67  84  /  20  70  90  80  50
Rockport          85  76  83  70  82  /  30  70  90  80  70
Cotulla           93  74  84  69  86  /  30  70  80  50  30
Kingsville        89  75  86  68  83  /  20  70  90  80  40
Navy Corpus       84  76  82  71  80  /  20  70  90  80  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon For the following
     zones: Aransas Islands...Bee...Calhoun Islands...Coastal
     Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal
     Nueces...Coastal Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...
     Goliad...Inland Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...
     Inland Refugio...Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...Kleberg
     Islands...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...Nueces Islands...
     Victoria...Webb.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

MCZ/93...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
309 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-192015-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
309 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today and
tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

There is a MODERATE risk of rip currents today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A squall line is likely to affect much of South Texas late Wednesday
morning through the afternoon with heavy rainfall, strong winds
and some hail. A few severe wind gusts and large hail are
possible with this line of storms before the activity diminishes
Wednesday night. Additional rounds of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday through the
weekend. A few storms could become strong or severe, along with a
threat of heavy rainfall.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

There is a MODERATE risk of rip currents Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-192015-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
309 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until Thursday morning for the
coastal and open waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
daily through the week. A few storms could become strong to possibly
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1002 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAREDO                  27.54N 99.49W
05/17/2021                   WEBB               TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOME DOWNED POWER POLES AND REPORTS OF WIND
            DAMAGE TO A FEW BUILDINGS. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR AND METARS.

0218 AM     TSTM WND DMG     GEORGE WEST             28.34N 98.12W
05/18/2021                   LIVE OAK           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF LIVE
            OAK COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0135 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE SAN DIEGO         27.77N 98.21W
05/18/2021  E60 MPH          JIM WELLS          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER NOTICED GAS STATION COVER OVER THE
            PUMPS WAS MOVING.

0145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW ALICE             27.74N 98.09W
05/18/2021                   JIM WELLS          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS AREAS OF DAMAGE INCLUDING POWER
            POLES DOWN AND DAMAGE TO HOME IN THE RANCHO
            ALEGRE AREA.

0149 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E ALICE               27.76N 98.05W
05/18/2021                   JIM WELLS          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES DOWN NEAR 665 IN ALICE.
            WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS.

0151 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE LAKE ALICE        27.90N 98.04W
05/18/2021  M67 MPH          JIM WELLS          TX   AWOS

            SEVERE WIND GUSTS FROM 151 AM THROUGH 207
            AM. PEAK GUST OF 70 MPH AT 158 AM.

0200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ALICE              27.75N 98.06W
05/18/2021                   JIM WELLS          TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF WIND DAMAGED HOME, STORAGE UNIT
            BEHIND HOME IS GONE, AND DOWNED POWERLINES.

0110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BENAVIDES          27.61N 98.39W
05/18/2021                   DUVAL              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRONG WINDS RESULTED IN ROOF DAMAGE.

0112 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E BENAVIDES           27.60N 98.36W
05/18/2021                   DUVAL              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CARPORT BLOWN INTO HOUSE.

0152 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE BENAVIDES          27.61N 98.40W
05/18/2021                   DUVAL              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF ROOFS TORN OFF OF HOMES.

0250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PAWNEE                  28.65N 98.00W
05/18/2021                   BEE                TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO BARNS AND METAL BUILDINGS. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0855 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SSW LA WARD          28.61N 96.62W
05/17/2021  M30 MPH          CALHOUN            TX   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 8833D PORT LAVACA.

0855 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 19 SSW LA WARD          28.61N 96.62W
05/17/2021  M30 MPH          CALHOUN            TX   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 8833D PORT LAVACA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
237 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE LAREDO            27.51N 99.47W
05/17/2021                   WEBB               TX   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS SNAPPED IN HALF.

&&

JCP