Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
308 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall continue
across northeast PA this afternoon and evening. Tonight,
another round of storms moves in from the northwest, tracking
southeastward through Saturday afternoon. These may produce
locally heavy rainfall with a risk for flash flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update...

A frontal boundary remains draped over the Southern Tier this
afternoon with a few showers throughout central NY. However,
to the south, more sunshine allowed for greater destabilization
with as much as 1500 to 2500 j/kg of CAPE analyzed across the
area. Scattered convection has already developed across
northeast PA, and some stronger storms with strong wind gusts
are not out of the question. Additionally, storms have been
able to produce brief heavy downpours with PWATs up to 1 to 1.5
inches. Where storms can train, this will lead to a risk for
some localized flooding.

Meanwhile, the main shortwave currently over the upper Midwest
will begin to swing towards the area, while a surface low
tightens across the Ohio valley and tracks along the front
currently over our area. This will help shift the front
northwest over central and northern New York, while a low level
jet increases to around 30 to 40 kts. This will touch off our
next round of thunderstorms overnight, especially across the
western Twin Tiers, Finger Lakes, and western Mohawk valley in
the vicinity of the front.

Into the daytime hours, the cold front associated with this
system will begin to sweep through the area. Much of the area
east of I-81 should be in the warm sector, with robust
south/southwesterly flow throughout the column helping to
continue to advect in a moisture-rich airmass. PW values will
be as high as 2 inches, and SB CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/Kg
range look to develop by early afternoon. Deep moisture
transport, and upper level wind profiles ideal for backbuilding
will support localized training of thunderstorms. Rain totals
around 1 to 2 inches will be fairly common, but higher totals
are possible where heavier downpours or training can occur.
Additionally, damaging winds would be possible in any strong to
severe storms. The timing of the cold front will be important
for the placement of strong convection, as a slower progression
would allow more of our forecast area to remain in the warm
sector.

Otherwise, expect a steep gradient in temperatures for Saturday
afternoon, with areas to the northwest struggling to make it
even into the mid 70s and areas to the south (especially the
Wyoming valley) possibly reaching as high as the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
110 pm update...
Main concerns in the short term are focused on the continued
threat of showers and weak thunderstorms on Sunday, with drying
conditions later in the day and into early Monday before more
afternoon convection develops Mon afternoon.

Slow moving upper trough will allow for the potential of
showers and a few weak storms to linger across the forecast area
on Sunday. The axis of deep moisture and instability will be
shunted well to the east, so not expecting widespread heavy rain
and/or severe weather. Temperatures should be able to climb
into the mid 70s to lower 80s, under lower to mid 60 dew points.

The weak cyclonic flow pattern should continue into Monday, but
the coverage and intensity of any showers should diminish
Sunday night into Monday. Overnight lows will only fall into the
lower to mid 60s. During the day Monday, a re-enforcing upper
short wave and weak surface inflection will drop in from the
northwest and combine with weak instability to trigger more
diurnal convection. Moisture will once again be limited, which
will inhibit the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding.
Will likely see scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region in the afternoon. Temperatures should be a few degrees
warmer than Sunday with weak to moderate humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
110 pm update...
The cyclonic flow pattern will persist Mon night through at
least Thursday which will keep the slightly cooler and active
pattern going through most of the week. Tuesday should be the
warmest day with highs topping out in the lower to mid
80s...eventually tapering back into the 70s for much of the area
Wed and Thu. The most favorable time frame for showers and
maybe a few weak storms will be late Tuesday into early
Wednesday along a passing upper short wave. Otherwise, the
chances for weak convection should be limited to the the
afternoon/early evening hours during peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal boundary dropping through the area has helped to touch
off showers and thunderstorms around KAVP this afternoon, and
there is a potential for some stray convection around KELM and
KBGM heading into the late afternoon. Otherwise, VFR continues
across most of the area, though KITH has been stuck under MVFR
ceilings for most of the afternoon behind the front. Ceilings
there should lift back up to around 3500 to 5000 ft into the
late afternoon, but then ceilings across central NY will
gradually fall back to MVFR overnight ahead of our next system.
KELM may even see ceilings dropping back to IFR briefly
overnight.

Chances for rain showers return mainly to KRME and KSYR after
midnight, then rain moves into our remaining terminals into the
daytime hours. MVFR ceilings at around 1500 to 2500 are
expected to hold for the remainder of the forecast period, with
some docks in visibility where any more persistent rainfall can
occur.

Outlook...

Saturday Night through Sunday...Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions persist into Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...Some drying possible early Tuesday before
more diurnal showers and storms return later in the day.

Wednesday...Stray showers and storms with associated
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch through late Saturday night for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HLC
NEAR TERM...HLC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...HLC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-171915-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to flash flooding, some storms may turn stronger Saturday
afternoon, with damaging wind gusts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

PAZ043-044-161945-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL LACKAWANNA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES...

At 300 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Clarks Summit,
or near Waverly, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scranton, Dunmore, Old Forge, Archbald, Blakely, Taylor, Dickson
City, Moosic, Olyphant and Clarks Summit.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4139 7583 4142 7583 4141 7589 4142 7592
      4157 7579 4153 7545 4144 7545 4129 7550
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 280DEG 18KT 4145 7578

BJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
308 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLOOD            1 WNW EVERGREEN         41.62N 76.44W
07/16/2021                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER ACROSS THE ROAD NEAR STEVENSON HILL
            RD.

&&

BJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

NYZ062-PAZ040-162000-
Sullivan-Northern Wayne-
324 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SULLIVAN AND EASTERN
WAYNE COUNTIES...

At 324 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fosterdale, or
12 miles southwest of Liberty, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fallsburg, Monticello, Liberty, Bethel, Damascus, South Fallsburg,
Callicoon, Cochecton, Jeffersonville and Swan Lake.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.

LAT...LON 4165 7513 4172 7511 4180 7503 4178 7457
      4150 7475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 286DEG 22KT 4171 7497

HLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
405 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WNW DUNMORE           41.42N 75.63W
07/16/2021                   LACKAWANNA         PA   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF A COUPLE OF ROADS FLOODED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
533 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE TAYLOR             41.39N 75.70W
07/16/2021                   LACKAWANNA         PA   PUBLIC

            WATER FROM KEYSER CREEK FLOWING OVER OAK
            STREET IN TAYLOR, PA. ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.

&&

BJT

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