Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
625 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will quickly become MVFR to IFR between 00Z and 04Z
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase at all
three TAF sites between 00Z and 06Z Monday which will continue
through 00Z Tuesday. Thunderstorm wind gusts of 40 to 50 knots or
higher will be possible with the strongest thunderstorms between
00Z Monday and 06Z Monday. IFR to MVFR conditions will prevail
with some LIFR and VLIFR conditions in the heavy rainfall.
Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots will
become north to northeast 5 to 15 knots after 04Z to 06Z Monday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday...

The two big questions of the day (1 will the clouds break and 2
will the boundary across the north hold there and not push through
the CWA) have now been answered - yes and yes. This appears to be
setting the stage for a widespread thunderstorm event with
potential for severe storms and very heavy rainfall tonight which
that the CAMS are finally seeming to agree on at least a little
better.

The jet exit region will move across the area overnight with good
upper diffluence spreading across the area. Multiple S/WVs moving
around the base of a deep trough in AZ S/WVs will continue to
move across the area through Monday. With low clouds scattering
out, temperatures have increased into the 70s most areas and ML
CAPE is around 1000-1500 J/KG and is forecast to reach 1500-2000
J/KG for most of the area by 00Z. There is good low level turning
in the wind fields and around a 90 kt upper level jet that will
move into the area, but the RAP progs of just 25-30 kt effective
bulk shear seems a tad low this evening especially given NAM pros
of 30-60 kt 0-6 km shear ahead of the storms. Convective
initiation is already occurring along the higher terrain of NM and
the outflow boundary across the north will be another potential
focus area. Discrete supercells are possible mainly in the west,
but appears these will be pretty quick to congeal into an MCS that
will have very good h85-h7 theta-e advection to feed this complex.
Given all this, all hazards are possible but the greatest hail
and tornado threat (5% per SPC) will be in the west before MCS
development. Very heavy rainfall is expected and much of the area
may see 1 to 3 inches (W/ locally higher amounts possible) in a
short period of time. The intersection of the outflow boundary and
the MCS could be an area to watch for highest rainfall totals as
well as greater tornado threat as well as the SE where many HREF
is pinging on higher potential for 2+ inch rainfall. A flood watch
has been issued for the entire region given the high rates
expected.

Best upper dynamics and strongest S/WV assoc w/ the upper system
might actually occur early Monday and therefore POPs remain
relatively high despite being on the backside the overnight MCS.
That said, storm intensity and rainfall rates should be much less
Monday and therefore the Flood Watch is set to expire at 12Z for
now. Cool outflow will fill in behind the storm complex w/ NRLY
winds developing and this will keep the area cool, cloudy and damp
on Monday with low clouds and SCT shra/tstms persisting.

LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday

Open wave to move across the Panhandles Monday night keeping chances
for convection Monday night across most of the forecast area.
Upper trough will begin to shift east away from the Panhandles
Tuesday with the upper flow transitioning to northwesterly behind
the departing upper trough. Lingering convection possible Tuesday.
Perturbations within the northwesterly or north northwesterly
upper flow aloft Wednesday through Friday will bring chances for
convection again during the afternoon into the nighttime hours
during the latter half of the week. Upper high builds in over the
Great Basin region late in the week with a more northerly and even
a northeasterly upper flow expected across the Panhandles by
Friday and Saturday.

Surface ridge builds down from the north into the forecast area
early this week. Surfaced ridge to kick out to the south and east
by the middle of the week as surface low pressure develops to the
lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico.
Surface flow to transition from upslope southeasterly to more
southerly and southwesterly by the middle and end of the week.
Frontal boundary to the south of the Panhandles by the middle of
the week forecast to lift north and east near or into the
Panhandles before frontolysis occurs by Thursday or Friday. Any
residual surface boundaries across the Panhandles late this week
will be a focus for lift for diurnally- driven convection.

Weakness in the upper flow along with diurnal heating and ample
residual low level moisture, with dew points in the 50s and 60s,
will result in convection still not out of the equation Friday
afternoon and evening as well as Saturday afternoon and evening.
Early in the week, some of the stronger convection could still be
efficient rainfall producers.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following zones:
     Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...
     Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo
     Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman...
     Wheeler.

OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following zones:
     Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
924 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-311430-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
924 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop or move in from the west
through tonight across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some
storms may become severe late this afternoon and evening, with
large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. However, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out across the far western
sections of the area. In addition, the strongest storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding or
flash flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of the
Panhandles this evening through Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles Memorial Day through Wednesday night, and then across
parts of the area Thursday through Saturday. Any storms that
develop are expected to remain below severe levels at this time.
In addition, the strongest storms on Memorial Day will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall, which may lead to flooding or flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter groups and Emergency Management officials across the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles should remain alert and remain activated
through tonight.

Bieda

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
816 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     TORNADO          5 ESE STRATFORD         36.31N 102.00W
05/30/2021                   SHERMAN            TX   STORM CHASER

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A TORNADO WITH PICTURES
            AND LIVE STREAM. START TIME WAS 7:31 PM,
            LIFTED AT 7:38 PM.

&&

BIEDA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
919 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

TXZ007-008-011>013-310300-
Hutchinson TX-Potter TX-Carson TX-Moore TX-Oldham TX-
919 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CARSON...EAST
CENTRAL OLDHAM...SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON...POTTER AND SOUTHERN MOORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 919 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Four Way to 5 miles east
of Masterson to 9 miles north of Wildorado. Movement was east at 30
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of up to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fritch, Sanford, Four Way, Valley De Oro, Boys Ranch, Masterson and
Lake Meredith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Lake Meredith, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for the
Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3589 10155 3559 10146 3527 10196 3530 10237
      3547 10244 3564 10210 3583 10203
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 270DEG 26KT 3577 10192 3562 10187 3535 10223

Ferguson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
931 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

OKZ002-003-TXZ003-004-008-009-310315-
Texas OK-Beaver OK-Hutchinson TX-Ochiltree TX-Roberts TX-Hansford TX-
931 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEAVER...
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON...SOUTHEASTERN
HANSFORD...NORTHERN ROBERTS AND OCHILTREE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

At 931 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles southwest of Bryans Corner to 4 miles
south of Waka to 16 miles east of Pringle. Movement was east at 35
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Perryton, Wolf Creek Park, Waka, Bryans Corner, Balko and Farnsworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for the
Panhandle of Oklahoma...and the Panhandle of Texas.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3668 10057 3622 10056 3572 10075 3582 10128
      3621 10108 3666 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 269DEG 30KT 3655 10100 3622 10104 3595 10116

DGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
954 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

TXZ007-008-012-013-017-310330-
Hutchinson TX-Potter TX-Randall TX-Carson TX-Moore TX-
954 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL RANDALL...
NORTHWESTERN CARSON...SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON...POTTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 954 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Sanford to Lake Meredith
to 9 miles north of Bushland. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of up to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Amarillo, Borger, Fritch, Stinnett, Sanford, Valley De Oro,
Masterson, Lake Meredith and Pantex.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Lake Meredith, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for the
Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3526 10217 3554 10216 3564 10199 3593 10179
      3593 10121 3560 10125 3513 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 277DEG 12KT 3582 10162 3567 10164 3532 10208

Ferguson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1014 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

OKZ002-003-TXZ003>005-008>010-310400-
Texas OK-Beaver OK-Hemphill TX-Hutchinson TX-Ochiltree TX-Roberts TX-
Hansford TX-Lipscomb TX-
1014 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BEAVER...
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LIPSCOMB...NORTHEASTERN HUTCHINSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD...ROBERTS...NORTHWESTERN HEMPHILL AND OCHILTREE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1014 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles north of Booker to 10 miles south of
Wolf Creek Park to 11 miles northwest of Codman. Movement was east at
30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Perryton, Miami, Booker, Wolf Creek Park, Elmwood, Bryans Corner,
Lora, Farnsworth, Boyd, Waka and Balko.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for the
Panhandle of Oklahoma...and the Panhandle of Texas.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma...and the Panhandle of Texas.

LAT...LON 3679 10031 3621 10036 3567 10058 3578 10128
      3617 10112 3666 10106
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 257DEG 25KT 3653 10058 3607 10067 3576 10088

DGW

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