Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will bring showers and some
strong thunderstorms to the region into this evening. A weak
cold front will stall near the Interstate 90 corridor tonight
into tomorrow with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
front will be fairly stationary over New York into New England
heading into Thursday with more rain and isolated thunderstorms,
as tropical system Elsa approaches the Mid Atlantic Region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...Heat Advisory for the Mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics
and southern Litchfield County, CT 11 am to 7 pm EDT...

...Severe thunderstorm watch 335 in effect until 8 PM for the
Mohawk Valley to southern VT and points south...

Thunderstorms along diffuse low level dew point gradient and
wind shift boundary that is settling gradually east and south
associated with the thunderstorm outflows. CAPEs around 2000
j/kg with some areas exceeding those CAPEs, while DCAPEs
between 500-1000 j/kg. Isolated to scattered damaging winds
expected with small hail possible but without steep midlevel
lapse rates and considering the very warm and humid low levels,
chances are quite limited for large hail of a quarter or
larger. Temperatures falling into the lower to mid 70s in areas
being affected by thunderstorms but dew points remain quite high
in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Clearing behind the thunderstorms and as the storms exit and
eventually dissipate later this evening, clouds and convective
debris should dissipate as well. So, with some clearing, and
light to calm winds, some patchy fog possible in some areas
between midnight and daybreak with temperatures falling to dew
points as dew points possibly fall a few degrees, too. Fog
potential not widespread enough for mention at this time until
later data and trends become available after dark. So, lows in
the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Heat Advisory for the Mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics
and southern Litchfield County, CT 11 am to 7 pm EDT..

Weak and diffuse boundary over our region again Wednesday and
the sunshine, heat and humidity will result in heat index
values approaching 100 in the mid Hudson Valley and parts of
Litchfield County again Wednesday afternoon. Considerable
instability and the diffuse boundary will be the focus for more
isolated to scattered thunderstorms with isolated storms
possible having damaging winds as our region is in a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction Center.
Highs Wednesday in the 80s with some lower 90s mid Hudson
Valley and parts of Litchfield County and some upper 70s to
around 80 southern Adirondacks.

Increasing southerly low level boundary layer winds well ahead
of the tropical system tracking north and northeast out of the
SE U.S. Increasing clouds and continued development of showers
and isolated thunderstorms through Wednesday night. The timing
of the tropical system and the track will determine how much of
the tropical moisture and strong boundary layer convergence will
track through our region. Widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorm are expected and the potential for excessive
rainfall proximate to the center of the tropical system.
Uncertainties in the timing and track, and the potentially
heaviest rain looks to be Thursday afternoon through Friday. So,
will keep an eye on where and when any flood potential may exist
in our area as sources of guidance/ensembles zero in on those
details.

Highs Thursday in the 70s with near 80 mid Hudson Valley and
around 70 southern Adirondacks. Highs Friday, with the rain
potentially building east of our region through the afternoon,
in the mid to upper 70s with around 80 mid Hudson Valley and
around 70 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Corridor of deeper moisture (1.5+ in PWAT) is forecast to exit to
the east in concert with TC Elsa by Friday night (see NHC for
official forecast). Inbound troughing could result in a few showers
for Saturday with silent slight chance wording used. For the
remainder of the period, the flow pattern appears to be
characterized by a cutoff low over the central Plains ejecting into
the Upper Midwest, and an anticyclone centered off the Southeast
coast. Trend with the 12Z ECMWF/GFS is for the latter feature to
dominate over the local area, with higher heights expanding
northward. This would lead to a drier forecast than what is
depicted. However, due to poor run-to-run guidance and the proximity
of a modeled baroclinc zone not far to the south, chance PoPs have
been maintained Sunday into early next week. Temperatures are
forecast to average near normal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR for all TAF sites with sct-bkn
cumulus around the region, with bases of 3-5 kft.  Much of the
cumulus has been showing vertical growth and thunderstorms are in
the process of forming across the region, as well as moving into the
area from central NY.  While the activity should stay south of KGFL,
have included a TEMPO for KALB/KPSF/KPOU for this afternoon for
thunderstorms, with brief gusty winds and IFR visibility.  The
activity is scattered, so it's not a certainty that each site sees a
t-storm, but the chance is high enough to include as a TEMPO.
Westerly winds will be around 10 kts, but some higher gusts are
possible (especially within and near thunderstorms).

Any storms should be done by this evening (probably 23z-01z), with
skies clearing out for tonight.  Some MVFR stratus is possible for
late in the night at KPSF/KGFL, otherwise, it should stay VFR with a
mainly clear sky and light westerly winds.

VFR conditions are expected for much of Wednesday with scattered
cumulus around 4-5 kft and light/variable winds.  More scattered
thunderstorms are possible by later in the day on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level disturbance will bring showers and some
strong thunderstorms to the region into this evening. A weak
cold front will stall near the Interstate 90 corridor tonight
into tomorrow with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
front will be fairly stationary over New York into New England
heading into Thursday with more rain and isolated thunderstorms,
as tropical system Elsa approaches the Mid Atlantic Region.

The maximum RH values will be close to 100 percent Wednesday
morning. Minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon between 50-70
percent with scattered showers and thunderstorms. RH values rise
above 70 percent Wednesday night and Thursday will be rain with
RH values remaining above 60 percent.

The winds will be southwest to west at 10 mph or less tonight
into Wednesday, then variable at less than 15 Kt Wednesday night
and Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Intermittent showers and thunderstorms possible into this
evening and and again Wednesday with a more widespread rainfall
Thursday into Friday. Flows on the main stem rivers will
increase, but within bankfull rises expected.

Ponding of water on roadways and some poor drainage issues this
evening and again Wednesday with any strong thunderstorms.

Rain is expected to be more widespread Thursday into Friday
morning, as an approaching upper level disturbance interacts
with tropical moisture. Urban and poor drainage flooding along
with isolated flash flooding will be possible. According to
MMEFS data, main stem river flooding is unlikely at this time,
but this will continue to be monitored.

Flows will begin to recede heading into the weekend with some
drier weather returning.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ059-060-
     064>066.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ059-060-
     064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

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