Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1050 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the north today and stalls across
the area tonight through Friday. Unsettled weather will
continue through at least Friday night...as areas of low
pressure move along the slow-moving boundary. Generally dry
conditions are expected late Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM EDT Thursday...
Very impressive low level moisture across the region with widespread
dewpoints in the mid 70s and even a few places in the upper 70s.
Latest 12z sounding from WAL shows a precipitable water value of
nearly 1.9" and generally less than 15 kt of wind below 300mb.
Latest surface analysis shows this region of high dewpoints pooling
across the eastern shore and even into the northern neck ahead of a
weak cool front extending from western MD through DE. This front is
slowly moving southward and is expected to stall out over SE MD this
afternoon. With the nearby frontal boundary, combined with the
satellite showing the breaks in the cloudiness, this area will be
the focus for heavy rainfall this afternoon per the CAMS guidance
including the latest 12z HREF which shows a 50% Neighborhood
Probability of 3+"/3hr this afternoon. As such, have opted to issue
a Flash Flood Watch for this afternoon into this evening for the SE
MD eastern shore.

There is also a chance for locally heavy rainfall across the rest of
the area, but the main focus simply due to the tropical airmass and
efficient warm rain process owing to the deep warm cloud layer.
However, this shower/storm activity may be a little less in coverage
as compared to yesterday due to increased cloud cover. However, any
breaks in the clouds today will lead to a risk of heavy rainfall
mainly due to the slow motion of any storms.

Next round of potentially heavy rainfall devlops later tonight
across the Piedmont and expands east later tonight into tomorrow as
the the upper wave and associated surface low moves across the area.
Latest 12z HRRR shows very heavy rainfall developing overnight near
the I-95 corridor with some support of the solution from the NAM3km.
Still think the main threat from additional heavy rainfall will be
tomorrow afternoon due to increased instability and the upper trough
overhead. Will look at potentially doing an additional flash flood
watch for later tonight into Friday for much of the area with the
afternoon package.

As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Latest wx analysis continues to show weak pre-frontal trough
draped across Hampton Roads into NE NC early this morning. Some
very light showers are noted just SE of the local area, so have
pulled out PoP for all but the Hwy 15 corridor for the next few
hours. Otherwise, some stratus/ground fog continues across the
piedmont to I-95 this morning and will slowly lift/erode after
sunrise. Thereafter, cool front draped from central Jersey back
into west central PA and the eastern Great Lakes will slowly
drop into the area late today into tonight.

After a brief lull in convective activity, expect sct showers to
develop later this morning, with sct to numerous showers and
storms to fire all over again after noon today. Opening upper
low over the OH/TN valleys will send another series of shortwave
trough energy along and just ahead of the approaching front,
where PW values between 1.75-2.25" persist (*00z soundings at
WAL/MHX showed PW values of 2.09 and 2.16" respectively, both
reflecting daily climo maxes and S.D departures of ~+2 S.D.).
CAMs are a bit messy and show sct to numerous storm coverage for
most of the area. That said, both show a convective footprint
that features a couple of distinct areas of heavy rainfall,
along with high warm cloud lyr depth to ~13kft. This area also
matches well with modeled LLVL convergence this aftn, with
warm rain processes likely yielding areas of heavy rainfall.
The first area is along and just ahead of the boundary sinking
south toward the VA northern neck (Colonial Beach area over to
the eastern shore of MD), with another area farther south from
the 460 Corridor south into NE NC. Nudged PoPs up a bit in each
of these areas. In between, of course is where some very heavy
rainfall occurred in the RIC metro area yesterday. This area has
substantially more convective inhibition due to the storms of
Wed. However, given convective outflows from storms in the
area...will need to watch sct storms closely. Any back
building/slow moving storms could pose more issues for the metro
area, and exacerbate flood issues from yesterday. However, with
areal coverage of storms expected to be highest outside of the
metro area, have opted to avoid a Flash Flood Watch for now.
However, one may be needed for tomorrow if current trends hold
to form.

Regardless, will need to monitor the entire area today for
potential flash flood issues. WPC has continued marginal risk
for flash flooding today area wide, with a Slight Risk area draped
across aforementioned NW tier of counties. We've nudged Max T
down a degree or two on avg with more in the way of cloud cover
and very high Td Values anticipated. Seasonably warm and quite
humid with highs in the Low to mid 80s.

Convective trends again head downward tonight as the front
becomes hung up over the local area. Will likely see some areas
of fog and low stratus overnight, with some iso-sct showers
across the southern tier of counties. Lows in the 60s to near
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

The wet pattern continues Fri, as the front begins to move into
the CWA on Thu, then slowly drops across the region on Fri as
low pressure rides along the boundary. WPC has continued a
Slight Risk on Fri, as numerous convective triggers are once
again expected to collaborate with moist airmass to produce
numerous to sct coverage of showers and T-Storms, capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall. Current QPF forecast ("Storm
Total QPF") is mostly in the 1.50-2.00" range through Sat
aftn, but is up around 2.25" across portions of southern VA and
NE NC. As noted above, locally higher totals are to be
expected. Highs will be significantly cooler Fri, especially
over the north where an onshore NE flow should prevail all day N
of the sfc boundary. Highs in the low-mid 70s N and NE with
low-mid 80s NE NC.

The front will be dropping S of the area Sat morning, with
shortwave energy moving offshore by late morning/aftn. Have
lowered PoPs across the NE, while maintaining chance PoPs across
the S. Skies become partly to mostly sunny Sat aftn with
lowering dew pts. highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

The shortwave trough responsible for the unsettled wx this
week finally pushes to our S by Sat night, taking the best deep-
layered moisture to our south with it. From late this weekend into
the first part of next week, the flow aloft becomes W to NW as an
upper trough deepens over far ern Canada and the NE CONUS. This will
generally favor a climo pattern with diurnally driven (mainly
aftn/evening) showers/tstms. Will have PoPs in the 20-30% range Sun
(highest chances NW) as lee troughing is progged to develop during
the aftn. Will maintain low PoPs for mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms across a good portion of the area on Monday and
Tuesday as a series of weak disturbances in the W-NW flow aloft
track over the area. A relatively stronger cold front potentially
pushes to our south from Tue-Tue night, with noticeably drier
conditions in the forecast for the middle part of next week (by next
Wednesday). Highs Sun-Tue will be mainly in the 83-88F range with
lows in the 60s (upper 60s-near 70F in coastal SE VA/NE NC). A bit
cooler on Wed/Thu behind the front with forecast highs generally in
the low 80s (and lows Wed night in the mid-upper 50s in most areas).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 AM EDT Thursday...

Showers/tstms from earlier this morning/late last evening have
resulted in areas of IFR/LIFR across area terminals (SBY-RIC-
PHF). Periods of low Stratus and VSBY restrictions due to
MIFG/mist will continue at all sites through ~13z, with quick
return to VFR over the next 1-2 hrs.

Thereafter, another afternoon of unsettled conditions is
expected later today, with periodic flight restrictions after
18z into tonight, as a cool front drops across the area.
Another round of scattered to numerous showers are expected
this aftn and tonight with short-lived VSBY/CIGs restrictions
in the heaviest showers.

Outlook: Another night of IFR/LIFR CIGs tomorrow night yield to
another unsettled period on Friday as the front stalled across
the area on Friday/Friday night serves as the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and storms. Sct showers and storms
possible again Sat aftn for KECG...Clearing/VFR conditions for
remaining terminals later Saturday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Thursday...

Early this morning, a weak trough was just offshore, while a
cold front was north of the region. Winds were W or SW 5-10 kt
over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay and seas 2-3 ft.

The cold front will approach from the north today, then slowly
drops across the area tonight through Fri. W or SW winds will
become SE or S over most of the waters during today, except the
winds will become E over the nrn coastal waters this aftn. Winds
will become E or SE 5-15 kt tonight, then E/NE 10-15 kt over
most of the waters Fri aftn. Stronger NE winds (10-20 kt) are
then expected late Fri night through Sat, as low pressure moves
off the Mid Atlc coast and out to sea while sfc high pressure
builds into the NE U.S. Winds look to remain below SCA thresholds
through the weekend, but seas may build to 4-5 ft on the coastal
waters for late Fri night through Sat.

Low Rip Risk for area beaches continues today. Southern beaches
retain a low rip risk on Fri, but the northern beaches will
have a moderate risk with increasing onshore flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this
     evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/MRD
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RHR/TMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ025-VAZ048-064-075>077-509>511-519-521-111615-
Maryland Beaches-Fluvanna-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again today across the
outlook area. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, as a frontal boundary drops across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The slow moving frontal boundary will remain in the area tomorrow,
resulting in another day of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will once
again be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MDZ021>024-111615-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-
1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The slow moving frontal boundary will remain in the area tomorrow,
resulting in another day of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will once
again be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060>062-065>069-078>090-092-093-095>100-
512>518-520-522>525-111615-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Lancaster-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-
Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-
Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again today
across the outlook area. Any storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy downpours, as a frontal boundary approaches the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The slow moving frontal boundary will remain in the area tomorrow,
and will be the focus for another day of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will once again be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
121 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ024-025-101800-
Maryland Beaches-Inland Worcester-
121 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
WORCESTER COUNTY...

At 120 PM EDT, thunderstorms were clustered near Newark, or 14 miles
southwest of Ocean City. These storms are nearly stationary.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Newark, Ironshire, Mount Wesley, Whiton, Cedartown and Public
Landing.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3810 7514 3806 7532 3829 7541 3829 7537
      3832 7536 3833 7533 3831 7521 3813 7513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1720Z 350DEG 3KT 3824 7530

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ024-025-101845-
Maryland Beaches-Inland Worcester-
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL
WORCESTER COUNTY...

At 159 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Snow Hill, or
13 miles east of Pocomoke City, moving south at 5 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph, frequent lightning, and very heavy
rain are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Snow Hill, Mount Wesley, Boxiron, Public Landing and Girdletree.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3800 7521 3800 7526 3801 7527 3800 7529
      3801 7538 3802 7538 3801 7541 3819 7538
      3818 7524 3803 7518
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 359DEG 4KT 3812 7532

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
214 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ022-024-101900-
Wicomico-Inland Worcester-
214 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WICOMICO
AND CENTRAL WORCESTER COUNTIES...

At 213 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Gumboro to near Newark. Movement
nearly stationary.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and very heavy rainfall are possible
with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Snow Hill, Parsonsburg, Pittsville, Willards, Longridge,
Salisbury-Wicomico, Powellville, Melson, Whiton and Whaleyville.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3826 7531 3819 7538 3818 7538 3818 7539
      3817 7540 3816 7552 3845 7555 3845 7537
      3840 7530
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 157DEG 6KT 3847 7547 3829 7533

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ021-101900-
Dorchester-
237 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN DORCHESTER
COUNTY...

At 237 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located near
Hurlock, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and very heavy rain are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hurlock, Galestown, Brookview and Eldorado.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3870 7580 3868 7580 3868 7578 3869 7576
      3864 7571 3856 7570 3854 7573 3854 7575
      3851 7576 3852 7577 3858 7588 3869 7588
      3870 7583
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 308DEG 8KT 3859 7579

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ021-022-024-101930-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Inland Worcester-
301 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
WICOMICO AND NORTHEASTERN DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 301 PM EDT, thunderstorms with heavy rain were located along a
line extending from Federalsburg to near Fruitland. the storms are
nearly stationary.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph and very heavy rain are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Salisbury, Fruitland, Salisbury University, Delmar, Hebron,
Sharptown, Mardela Springs, Galestown, Brookview, Eldorado,
Salisbury-Wicomico, Lakewood, Longridge, Chesapeake Heights and Shad
Point.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3868 7580 3868 7578 3869 7576 3864 7571
      3846 7569 3845 7552 3827 7544 3822 7558
      3825 7560 3828 7561 3830 7566 3849 7581
      3870 7581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 097DEG 1KT 3867 7576 3827 7557

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

VAZ060-061-067-068-101945-
Nottoway-Amelia-Cumberland-Prince Edward-
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE EDWARD...
NORTHWESTERN NOTTOWAY AND WEST CENTRAL AMELIA COUNTIES...

At 300 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Longwood
University, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

This storm will be near...
  Rice around 320 PM EDT.
  Crewe, Burkeville and Green Bay around 345 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Briery Creek Lake,
Prince Edward Station, Twin Lakes State Park, Burkes Tavern, Moran,
Kingsville, Jennings Ordinary, Prince Edward Lake, Stoddert and
Deatonville.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3737 7838 3734 7806 3705 7816 3706 7817
      3708 7817 3707 7819 3709 7823 3711 7823
      3712 7824 3711 7827 3710 7828 3710 7830
      3721 7848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 299DEG 7KT 3726 7836

Poche