Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Watches in 2021

Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Wakefield, VA

June 10, 20215 counties in Virginia; 4 counties in Maryland

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this flash flood watch at Jun 10, 2021, 10:14 AM EDT for 5 counties in Virginia; 4 counties in Maryland. It took effect at Jun 10, 2021, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jun 10, 2021, 10:14 AM EDT (14:14 UTC)
In effect from
Jun 10, 2021, 2:00 PM EDT
Expired
Jun 10, 2021, 8:08 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA
Flood severity
None

Counties Dorchester County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Amelia County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:15 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 163 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-06-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -6 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
163 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
987 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

631 
WGUS61 KAKQ 101414
FFAAKQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1014 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ021>024-102215-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FF.A.0002.210610T1800Z-210611T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, 
Princess Anne, and Snow Hill
1014 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Maryland, 
  including the following areas, Dorchester, Inland Worcester, 
  Somerset, and Wicomico. 

* From 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening

* A frontal boundary will become stationary over the region this
  afternoon leading to the potential for numerous thunderstorms
  with heavy rainfall. In the heaviest rainfall, 2 to 4 inches of
  rain will fall in a short period of time leading to the
  potential for flash flooding.

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations 
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and 
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also 
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MRD
3 follow-up statements
576 
WGUS61 KAKQ 101752
FFAAKQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

VAZ060-061-067>069-110200-
/O.EXA.KAKQ.FF.A.0002.210610T1800Z-210611T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Including the cities of Crewe, Subletts, Stoddert, Jetersville, 
Goodwins Store, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Earls, Hawk, 
Mannboro, Fine Creek Mills, Clayville, Genito, Denaro, Flat Rock, 
Angola, Worshams, Reeds, Chula, Farmville, Guinea Mills, and Raines 
Tavern
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of central Virginia and 
  south central Virginia, including the following areas, in central 
  Virginia, Amelia, Cumberland, Powhatan and Prince Edward. In south 
  central Virginia, Nottoway.

* Until Midnight EDT tonight.

* Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall have 
  developed this afternoon. With rainfall rates up to 2 to 3 inches 
  per hour, flash flooding is possible.

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations 
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and 
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also 
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MDZ021>024-110200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0002.210610T1800Z-210611T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-
Including the cities of Crisfield, Princess Anne, Cambridge, 
Salisbury, and Snow Hill
152 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Maryland, including the following areas, 
  Dorchester, Inland Worcester, Somerset and Wicomico.

* Until Midnight EDT tonight.

* A frontal boundary will become stationary over the region this
  afternoon leading to the potential for numerous thunderstorms
  with heavy rainfall. In the heaviest rainfall, 2 to 4 inches of
  rain will fall in a short period of time leading to the
  potential for flash flooding.

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations 
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and 
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also 
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MRD
658 
WGUS61 KAKQ 101839
FFAAKQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
239 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

VAZ060-061-067>069-110400-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FF.A.0003.210611T1600Z-210612T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210611T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Including the cities of Crewe, Subletts, Stoddert, Jetersville, 
Goodwins Store, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Earls, Hawk, 
Mannboro, Fine Creek Mills, Clayville, Genito, Denaro, Flat Rock, 
Angola, Worshams, Reeds, Chula, Farmville, Guinea Mills, and Raines 
Tavern
239 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY 
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Virginia and south central Virginia, including 
  the following areas, in central Virginia, Amelia, Cumberland, 
  Powhatan and Prince Edward. In south central Virginia, Nottoway.

* Until Midnight EDT tonight.

* Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall have 
  developed this afternoon. With rainfall rates up to 2 to 3 inches 
  per hour, flash flooding is possible.

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations 
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and 
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also 
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Virginia and south 
  central Virginia, including the following areas, in central 
  Virginia, Amelia, Cumberland, Powhatan and Prince Edward. In south 
  central Virginia, Nottoway.

* From Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* Additional heavy rainfall is possible Friday Afternoon into Friday 
  evening as a frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary across the 
  region. Up to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall may fall in a short period 
  of time in the heavier thunderstorms, leading to the potential for 
  flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-079>082-087>090-092-093-095>098-
513>516-523>525-110400-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FF.A.0003.210611T1600Z-210612T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-Greensville-Sussex-
Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Western Chesterfield-Eastern
Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the
City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Williamsburg, Lee Hall, Rehoboth, Lilly, 
Corapeake, Menchville, Benns Church, Nutbush, Hopewell, Fort Eustis, 
Kells Corner, Barnetts, Deep Creek, Hancock, Wakefield, Hog Island 
Game Reserve, Horseshoe, Reams, Chesterfield, Dam Neck, Midway, 
Norfolk International Arpt, Margarettsville, Downtown Suffolk, 
Bayside, Saint Johns, Cape Colony, Crittenden, Petersburg, 
Midlothian, Wards Corner, Fox Hill, Greenbrier, Mavaton, Hallwood, 
Bethel Church, Back Bay, Booth Fork, Bacons Castle, Lees Mill, 
Chester, Newport News, Quitsna, Barham, Fort Monroe, Wayside, 
Windsor, Chippokes State Park, Tabb, Longview, Emporia, Mount 
Pleasant, Richmond, Great Bridge, Jacocks, South Hill, Driver, Cape 
Henry, Lunenburg, Denbigh, Elizabeth City, Norfolk NAS, Roxbury, 
Carrsville, Corolla, Franklin, Gallups Corner, Gwaltney Corner, 
Norview, Woodville, Chesapeake Airport, Lawrenceville, Langley AFB, 
Grand View, Kempsville, Poolesville, Sharon, Beaconsdale, Edenton, 
Bon Air, Ahoskie, Edenhouse, Cleopus, Merry Hill, Downtown Norfolk, 
Arvins Store, Buckroe Beach, Knotts Island, Sandston, Grafton, 
Chuckatuck, Carrollton, Ghent, Fort Mitchell, Hilton Village, London 
Bridge, Macedonia, Lawson, Bowers Hill, Ocean View, Hampton, 
Fentress, Valhalla, Loves Mill, Elwood, Deanes, and Colonial Heights
239 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY 
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast North Carolina and 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in northeast North 
  Carolina, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Eastern Currituck, Gates, 
  Hertford, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans and Western 
  Currituck. In Virginia, Brunswick, Charles City, Chesapeake, 
  Dinwiddie, Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights), Eastern 
  Henrico, Greensville, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James City, 
  Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Prince 
  George, Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex, Virginia Beach, 
  Western Chesterfield, Western Henrico (Including the City of 
  Richmond) and York.

* From Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

* Additional heavy rainfall is possible Friday Afternoon into Friday 
  evening as a frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary across the 
  region. Up to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall may fall in a short period 
  of time in the heavier thunderstorms, leading to the potential for 
  flash flooding.

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations 
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and 
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also 
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MDZ021>024-110400-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210611T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-
Including the cities of Crisfield, Princess Anne, Cambridge, 
Salisbury, and Snow Hill
239 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Maryland, including the following areas, 
  Dorchester, Inland Worcester, Somerset and Wicomico.

* Until Midnight EDT tonight.

* Numerous thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have developed across 
  southeast Maryland. In the heaviest rainfall, 2 to 4 inches of
  rain will fall in a short period of time leading to the
  potential for flash flooding. Expect the flash flood potential to 
  subside after midnight.

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations 
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and 
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also 
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MRD
173 
WGUS61 KAKQ 110008
FFAAKQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
808 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

VAZ060-061-067>069-110815-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210611T0400Z/
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0003.210611T1600Z-210612T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Prince Edward-Cumberland-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-
Including the cities of Farmville, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, 
Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Crewe, Earls, Mannboro, 
Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, 
Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, 
Clayville, and Genito
808 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Virginia and south central Virginia, 
  including the following areas, in central Virginia, Amelia, 
  Cumberland, Powhatan, and Prince Edward. In south central 
  Virginia, Nottoway. 

* From Friday afternoon through Friday evening

* Additional heavy rainfall is possible Friday Afternoon into
  Friday evening as a frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary
  across the region. Up to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall may fall in a
  short period of time in the heavier thunderstorms, leading to
  the potential for flash flooding.

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Virginia and south
central Virginia has been cancelled. The threat for flooding
rainfall has ended this evening. 

$$

MDZ021>024-110115-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210611T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, 
Princess Anne, and Snow Hill
808 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Maryland has
been cancelled. The threat for heavy rainfall has ended for this 
evening. 

$$

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ065-066-079>082-087>090-092-093-095>098-
513>516-523>525-110815-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0003.210611T1600Z-210612T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-Greensville-Sussex-
Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake, 
Elizabeth City, Horseshoe, Lilly, Sharon, Knotts Island, Quitsna,
Edenhouse, Merry Hill, Midway, Windsor, Cape Colony, Edenton, 
Hancock, Macedonia, Mavaton, Saint Johns, Valhalla, Jacocks, 
Woodville, Corolla, South Hill, Fort Mitchell, Kells Corner, 
Arvins Store, Loves Mill, Lunenburg, Nutbush, Rehoboth, 
Lawrenceville, Reams, Petersburg, Hopewell, Barnetts, Wayside, 
Roxbury, Emporia, Wakefield, Barham, Gwaltney Corner, 
Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, 
Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Franklin, Carrsville, 
Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church, Carrollton, Lawson, 
Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, 
Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Chuckatuck, 
Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk, Driver, Elwood, 
Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, 
Fentress, Great Bridge, Greenbrier, Back Bay, Bayside, 
Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, 
Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, 
Richmond, Sandston, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale, Denbigh, 
Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, Newport News, 
Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, 
Hampton, and Langley AFB
808 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast North Carolina and Virginia, including 
  the following areas, in northeast North Carolina, Bertie, 
  Camden, Chowan, Eastern Currituck, Gates, Hertford, 
  Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, and Western Currituck. In 
  Virginia, Brunswick, Charles City, Chesapeake, Dinwiddie, 
  Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights), Eastern 
  Henrico, Greensville, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James 
  City, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Newport News, 
  Norfolk/Portsmouth, Prince George, Southampton, Suffolk, 
  Surry, Sussex, Virginia Beach, Western Chesterfield, Western 
  Henrico (Including the City of Richmond), and York. 

* From Friday afternoon through Friday evening

* Additional heavy rainfall is possible Friday Afternoon into 
  Friday evening as a frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary 
  across the region. Up to 2 to 4 inches of rainfall may fall in 
  a short period of time in the heavier thunderstorms, leading 
  to the potential for flash flooding. 

* Low lying areas near creeks, streams, and rivers and locations 
  with poor drainage could become inundated with floodwater and 
  inaccessible. Flooding of roadways and road closures are also 
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jun 10, 7:21 AM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 7:21 AM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
721 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches from the north today and stalls across
the area tonight through Friday. Unsettled weather will
continue through at least Friday night...as areas of low
pressure move along the slow-moving boundary. Generally dry
conditions are expected late Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 700 AM EDT Thursday...

Latest wx analysis continues to show weak pre-frontal trough
draped across Hampton Roads into NE NC early this morning. Some
very light showers are noted just SE of the local area, so have
pulled out PoP for all but the Hwy 15 corridor for the next few
hours. Otherwise, some stratus/ground fog continues across the
piedmont to I-95 this morning and will slowly lift/erode after
sunrise. Thereafter, cool front draped from central Jersey back
into west central PA and the eastern Great Lakes will slowly
drop into the area late today into tonight.

After a brief lull in convective activity, expect sct showers to
develop later this morning, with sct to numerous showers and
storms to fire all over again after noon today. Opening upper
low over the OH/TN valleys will send another series of shortwave
trough energy along and just ahead of the approaching front,
where PW values between 1.75-2.25" persist (*00z soundings at
WAL/MHX showed PW values of 2.09 and 2.16" respectively, both
reflecting daily climo maxes and S.D departures of ~+2 S.D.).
CAMs are a bit messy and show sct to numerous storm coverage for
most of the area. That said, both show a convective footprint
that features a couple of distinct areas of heavy rainfall,
along with high warm cloud lyr depth to ~13kft. This area also
matches well with modeled LLVL convergence this aftn, with
warm rain processes likely yielding areas of heavy rainfall.
The first area is along and just ahead of the boundary sinking
south toward the VA northern neck (Colonial Beach area over to
the eastern shore of MD), with another area farther south from
the 460 Corridor south into NE NC. Nudged PoPs up a bit in each
of these areas. In between, of course is where some very heavy
rainfall occurred in the RIC metro area yesterday. This area has
substantially more convective inhibition due to the storms of
Wed. However, given convective outflows from storms in the
area...will need to watch sct storms closely. Any back
building/slow moving storms could pose more issues for the metro
area, and exacerbate flood issues from yesterday. However, with
areal coverage of storms expected to be highest outside of the
metro area, have opted to avoid a Flash Flood Watch for now.
However, one may be needed for tomorrow if current trends hold
to form.

Regardless, will need to monitor the entire area today for
potential flash flood issues. WPC has continued marginal risk
for flash flooding today area wide, with a Slight Risk area draped
across aforementioned NW tier of counties. We've nudged Max T
down a degree or two on avg with more in the way of cloud cover
and very high Td Values anticipated. Seasonably warm and quite
humid with highs in the Low to mid 80s.

Convective trends again head downward tonight as the front
becomes hung up over the local area. Will likely see some areas
of fog and low stratus overnight, with some iso-sct showers
across the southern tier of counties. Lows in the 60s to near
70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

The wet pattern continues Fri, as the front begins to move into
the CWA on Thu, then slowly drops across the region on Fri as
low pressure rides along the boundary. WPC has continued a
Slight Risk on Fri, as numerous convective triggers are once
again expected to collaborate with moist airmass to produce
numerous to sct coverage of showers and T-Storms, capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall. Current QPF forecast ("Storm
Total QPF") is mostly in the 1.50-2.00" range through Sat
aftn, but is up around 2.25" across portions of southern VA and
NE NC. As noted above, locally higher totals are to be
expected. Highs will be significantly cooler Fri, especially
over the north where an onshore NE flow should prevail all day N
of the sfc boundary. Highs in the low-mid 70s N and NE with
low-mid 80s NE NC.

The front will be dropping S of the area Sat morning, with
shortwave energy moving offshore by late morning/aftn. Have
lowered PoPs across the NE, while maintaining chance PoPs across
the S. Skies become partly to mostly sunny Sat aftn with
lowering dew pts. highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

The shortwave trough responsible for the unsettled wx this
week finally pushes to our S by Sat night, taking the best deep-
layered moisture to our south with it. From late this weekend into
the first part of next week, the flow aloft becomes W to NW as an
upper trough deepens over far ern Canada and the NE CONUS. This will
generally favor a climo pattern with diurnally driven (mainly
aftn/evening) showers/tstms. Will have PoPs in the 20-30% range Sun
(highest chances NW) as lee troughing is progged to develop during
the aftn. Will maintain low PoPs for mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms across a good portion of the area on Monday and
Tuesday as a series of weak disturbances in the W-NW flow aloft
track over the area. A relatively stronger cold front potentially
pushes to our south from Tue-Tue night, with noticeably drier
conditions in the forecast for the middle part of next week (by next
Wednesday). Highs Sun-Tue will be mainly in the 83-88F range with
lows in the 60s (upper 60s-near 70F in coastal SE VA/NE NC). A bit
cooler on Wed/Thu behind the front with forecast highs generally in
the low 80s (and lows Wed night in the mid-upper 50s in most areas).

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 AM EDT Thursday...

Showers/tstms from earlier this morning/late last evening have
resulted in areas of IFR/LIFR across area terminals (SBY-RIC-
PHF). Periods of low Stratus and VSBY restrictions due to
MIFG/mist will continue at all sites through ~13z, with quick
return to VFR over the next 1-2 hrs.

Thereafter, another afternoon of unsettled conditions is
expected later today, with periodic flight restrictions after
18z into tonight, as a cool front drops across the area.
Another round of scattered to numerous showers are expected
this aftn and tonight with short-lived VSBY/CIGs restrictions
in the heaviest showers.

Outlook: Another night of IFR/LIFR CIGs tomorrow night yield to
another unsettled period on Friday as the front stalled across
the area on Friday/Friday night serves as the focus for
scattered to numerous showers and storms. Sct showers and storms
possible again Sat aftn for KECG...Clearing/VFR conditions for
remaining terminals later Saturday through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 430 AM EDT Thursday...

Early this morning, a weak trough was just offshore, while a
cold front was north of the region. Winds were W or SW 5-10 kt
over the waters, with waves 1-2 ft in the Bay and seas 2-3 ft.

The cold front will approach from the north today, then slowly
drops across the area tonight through Fri. W or SW winds will
become SE or S over most of the waters during today, except the
winds will become E over the nrn coastal waters this aftn. Winds
will become E or SE 5-15 kt tonight, then E/NE 10-15 kt over
most of the waters Fri aftn. Stronger NE winds (10-20 kt) are
then expected late Fri night through Sat, as low pressure moves
off the Mid Atlc coast and out to sea while sfc high pressure
builds into the NE U.S. Winds look to remain below SCA thresholds
through the weekend, but seas may build to 4-5 ft on the coastal
waters for late Fri night through Sat.

Low Rip Risk for area beaches continues today. Southern beaches
retain a low rip risk on Fri, but the northern beaches will
have a moderate risk with increasing onshore flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RHR/TMG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 6:22 AM EDT, 3 hours 52 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
622 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-064-075>077-509>511-519-521-111030-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Caroline-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King and Queen-
Western Essex-
622 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again today across the
outlook area. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, as a frontal boundary drops across the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The slow moving frontal boundary will remain in the area tomorrow,
resulting in another day of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will once
again be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ060>062-065>069-078>090-092-093-095>100-
512>518-520-522>525-111030-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Prince Edward-Cumberland-
Goochland-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Lancaster-
Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-
Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-
Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
622 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again today
across the outlook area. Any storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy downpours, as a frontal boundary approaches the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The slow moving frontal boundary will remain in the area tomorrow,
and will be the focus for another day of afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will once again be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 10, 2:39 PM EDTFlash Flood WatchAKQAmelia, Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Cumberland and 41 more33 hr
Jun 10, 3:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQPrince Edward43 min
Jun 10, 3:07 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQCumberland, Prince Edward113 min
Jun 10, 3:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQDinwiddie27 min
Jun 10, 4:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQAccomack36 min
Jun 10, 4:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQCity of Virginia Beach51 min
Jun 10, 4:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQCity of Colonial Heights, City of Hopewell, City of Petersburg30 min
Jun 10, 4:51 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQCity of Chesapeake, City of Norfolk, City of Portsmouth, City of Virginia Beach3 hr
Jun 10, 5:07 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningAKQCity of Chesapeake, City of Norfolk, City of Virginia Beach54 min
Jun 10, 5:17 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQPrince George, City of Colonial Heights, City of Hopewell, City of Petersburg28 min
Jun 10, 5:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCity of Chesapeake, City of Virginia Beach43 min
Jun 10, 5:39 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQCharles City51 min
Jun 10, 5:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQIsle of Wight, Surry57 min
Jun 10, 6:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQCity of Chesapeake45 min
Jun 10, 6:17 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQIsle of Wight, Surry118 min
Jun 10, 6:20 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAKQ55 min
Jun 10, 6:37 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningAKQSurry113 min
Jun 10, 6:41 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQIsle of Wight, City of Chesapeake, City of Portsmouth, City of Suffolk109 min
Jun 10, 7:07 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQKing William113 min
Jun 10, 7:12 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQEssex, Richmond, Westmoreland3 hr
Jun 10, 7:35 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQPrince George, Surry, Sussex3 hr
Jun 10, 1:21 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQWorcester39 min
Jun 10, 1:45 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQWicomico, Worcester2 hr
Jun 10, 2:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQWorcester45 min
Jun 10, 2:14 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQWorcester46 min
Jun 10, 2:24 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQWicomico, Worcester2 hr
Jun 10, 2:37 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQDorchester23 min
Jun 10, 3:01 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQWicomico29 min
Jun 10, 3:08 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryAKQWicomico112 min
Jun 10, 3:28 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningAKQWicomico81 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Virginia, 2021Flash Flood Watches in Maryland, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.