Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 PM EDT Thu Jun 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and its accompanying cold front will weaken while
moving through the region tonight into Friday. The front will
wash out offshore over the weekend, as weak high pressure
settles across the local area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will continue
across southeast VA and northeast NC through tonight. Bouts of
heavy rain and localized flooding will occur within the Flash
Flood watch area given the rain that fell late Wednesday and an
additional 1-3 inches of rain (with locally higher amounts) that
are expected through tonight. Have added James City and
Gloucester County to the FF Watch given recent obs and recent
radar trends. In addition to the heavy rain, SPC has placed our
northern tier VA counties and lower MD counties in a SVR TSTM
Watch through 9 pm as a broken line of strong to severe storms
is expected. We'll be on the look out for isolated storms
capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts within the
watch area. Storms should overall be moving fast enough to
preclude and heavy rain/flooding mention across the north/NW
despite WPC's westward expansion of SLGT risk area in Day 1 ERO.
Continued likely PoPs this evening, though the severe threat
will diminish. Heavy rain potential continues overnight across
the SE. Mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid to upr 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Broad trough aloft will swing through the region Fri into Fri
night, gradually pushing the bulk of the significant moisture S
and E of the FA. Will hang onto highest PoPs (50-70%) across ESE
VA-NE NC Fri morning, with drying expected by late morning. With
the upper trough and an associated shortwave progged to push
through the area Fri aftn/evening, expect tstms to redevelop
(even across the NW). Lapse rates steepen/become more favorable
by aftn so there will be some potential for a few strong/severe
tstms with wind and possibly large hail. SPC has a marginal risk
for now. Variable clouds/partly sunny Fri with highs mainly in
the lower-mid 80s. Drying out and becoming mostly clear to
partly cloudy Fri night into early Sat morning with lows in the
60s.

High pressure builds over the area for Sat. Partly to mostly
sunny and warm with highs ranging through the mid to upper
80s. Will hang on to a 20% PoP over interior NE NC Sat aftn
given slightly higher dew pts and some weak instability. Clear
to partly cloudy Sat night with lows in the 60s. Remaining dry
and warm Sunday with high pressure in control. Highs from the
low-mid 80s coast to the low 90s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

The latest 12Z/03 models continue to forecast a summerlike pattern
with just isolated to perhaps scattered diurnal convection (highest
coverage during the aftn/evening) from the early to middle part of
next week. A potent shortwave potentially dives SSE from srn Canada
to far nrn New England by the end of next week. This feature
potentially could allow a backdoor cold front to settle near the
region by late next week. Regardless, the main mid/upper level flow
is expected to remain well to our north. It will be somewhat humid
with dew pts in the 60s to near 70F (highest SE). Highs will range
from the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period with some locally
cooler conditions at the immediate coast only. Lows will range from
the mid 60s to around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

A widespread coverage of showers/tstms is expected this
afternoon and evening across the area. Greatest coverage will be
for ORF/PHF/ECG. CIGs during the 18-00Z period will mostly be
VFR (> 3000 ft) or at least high level MVFR (2000-2500 ft) but
VSBY flight restrictions are likely in heavy downpours. Showers/tstms
will continue overnight/early Fri morning over mainly SE VA/NE
NC. IFR CIGS will become prevalent for all terminals 08Z-14Z
Fri. Mainly dry over the area except in the far SE after
12Z Fri morning, but with redevelopment of scattered
showers/tstms expected Fri aftn.

OUTLOOK...Generally dry/VFR for the weekend other than spotty
aftn tstms into NE NC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EDT Thursday...

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are moving across the area. Winds
are generally southerly 10-15 kt with a few gusts around 20 kt.
Seas seas are increasing to 3-4 feet while waves in the bay are
around 1 to 2 feet. Southerly winds 20-25 kt for an hour or two
tonight across the middle Chesapeake Bay. There is also the
possibility for SCA conditions across the far northern coastal
waters later tonight into Friday as seas increase to around 4 to
5 feet (especially out 20 nm). S to SW flow continues on Friday
and through the weekend around 10 to 15 knots. Sub-SCA
conditions are anticipated into early next week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for VAZ084-087>090-
     092-093-095>098-523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...JDM/LKB
MARINE...AJB/CP

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