Winter Storm Watch 3, NWS Juneau, AK

787 
WWAK47 PAJK 170840
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1140 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021


AKZ018-171645-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T1800Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
1140 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 
  18 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Klondike Highway above 2000 feet including White Pass.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A powerful storm is expected to move 
  through the area on Monday bringing high winds and heavy 
  precipitation. Rising snow levels could reach 2500 feet 
  through Monday afternoon then fall to near 500 feet by Tuesday 
  morning. High wind gusts to 60 mph are possible from Skagway 
  to White Pass Monday afternoon through late Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

512 
WWAK47 PAJK 172116
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1216 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

AKZ018-180200-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T1800Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
1216 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 
  18 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Klondike Highway above 2000 feet including White Pass.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A powerful storm is expected to move 
  through the area on Monday bringing high winds and heavy 
  precipitation. Rising snow levels could reach 2500 feet 
  through Monday afternoon then fall to near 500 feet by Tuesday 
  morning. High wind gusts to 60 mph are possible from Skagway 
  to White Pass Monday afternoon through late Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

761 
WWAK47 PAJK 180021
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

AKZ018-181400-
/O.UPG.PAJK.WS.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T1800Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.WS.W.0004.210118T1800Z-210119T1500Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM AKST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 
  20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Klondike Highway above 1500 feet including White Pass.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Monday to 6 AM AKST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches. Blowing snow will reduce
  visibility and cause significant drifting on the highway.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rising snow levels could reach 2000 feet 
  through Monday afternoon then fall to near 500 feet by Tuesday 
  morning. High wind gusts to 55 mph are possible from Skagway to 
  White Pass Monday afternoon through late Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. Monitor the latest forecast
for updates on this developing situation.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/The short term forecast
remains much of the same. We are on the second half of the most
recent storm force front with another (weaker) front expected
Sunday. Then a strong low will move into the gulf. This will
bring more storm force winds to the coast and high winds over
parts of the northern Panhandle late Sunday night into Monday.

The storm force winds along the coast from today will calm down
tonight. That being said, strong winds are still expected in open
waters. So, gale warnings come to end this evening but small
craft advisories last through the night.

Then tomorrow's front will keep the small crafts in place over
coastal waters and should kick the winds up in Lynn Canal so a
small craft advisory will go into effect Sunday morning.

Winds weaken late Sunday and Sunday night but they'll pick right
back up as that strong low moves into the gulf and pushes a strong
weather front into the panhandle early in the work week. By
Monday morning, open water winds will be around 40 to 50 knots
with winds in the inner channels getting up to 35 knots in the
afternoon.

Because of Monday's front, a High Wind Watch will be issued for
the northeast and east gulf coast and for parts of the central
inner channels due to possible high winds. This will be in effect
beginning Monday morning.

The parade of fronts and lows will keep a general south to
southwest flow over the panhandle so temps should stay above
normal with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and lows mostly in the
mid to upper 30s.

And this parade of fronts and lows will keep at least a chance of precip
in place over the panhandle through Monday night. But expected temps
should support rain for most of the panhandle.

That being said, there is a small area where temperatures could
cool down enough to support snow. So because of this, a Winter
Storm Watch will be issued for the far northeastern corner of the
northern inner channel. This will be in effect beginning Monday
morning.

Forecaster confidence in this forecast has been growing. The High
Wind forecast confidence is highest for Yakutat with moderate to
average forecast confidence for the rest. The Winter Storm
forecast confidence is moderate.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Pattern
change in the works as we head through next week. Initially we
will still be stuck in an active SW flow pattern aloft with at
least one more storm system moving through the area in the first
part of the long range. That gradually changes mid week into late
week as more ridging begins to show up over most of the Gulf of
Alaska and Central Alaska. However, this ridging is not strong
enough to be a blocking pattern as at least one storm will be
trying to push through the ridge and into the panhandle next
weekend. Depiction of the SW flow and the initial ridge mid next
week has fairly average forecast confidence, but that confidence
falls to low toward late week and next weekend as long range
guidance has trouble figuring out how strong system trying to
break through the ridge will play out and if it will make the
panhandle or not.

At the surface, the first part of the long range remains fairly
active with a wet storm-force front moving through the area Mon
into Mon night. IVT and PW anomalies continue to indicate a
fairly decent atmospheric river connection with this front.
Fortunately, the front does not linger over the area very long so
we are looking at around 1 to 3 inches of QPF over any given area
through Mon night right now. Still there will be periods of
moderate to even heavy rain at times for most of the panhandle.
Most areas will be warm enough for rain, but the Haines and
Klondike highways may see some snow (possibly several inches worth
near White Pass). Winds will be the other concern, but with the
parent low so far W, the front will be weakening as it moves E.
Storm force winds are expected for the northern gulf while gales
(Marine areas) and gusty winds 40 to 55 mph (land areas) are
expected elsewhere.

The forecast quiets down for Tues onward as the ridging aloft
begins to develop. Some fairly weak system will still try to
advance on the panhandle through the period, but they do not have
the strength that previous systems have had. There is also more
forecast uncertainty showing up from Wed onward as guidance tries
to figure out what to do with the developing ridge. Overall trends
point toward a drier forecast with the possibility of some cold
air working southeastward Thu into Fri. The cold air is somewhat
uncertain as the Canadian is being rather aggressive with it
while the ECMWF is not as aggressive and the GFS is has it barely
there at all. We will continue to monitor how this pattern change
develops.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025>028.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     AKZ017-022-023-025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053.

&&

GJS/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau