Small Craft Advisory 40, NWS Juneau, AK

182 
FZAK51 PAJK 170723 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-171715-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening gale force front lifts NE into the Panhandle Sat
night. A weaker front crosses the gulf into the Panhandle Sun 
morning. A ridge of high pressure develops across the Inner 
Channels Sun afternoon and persists through Sun night. A storm 
force front approaches Southeast Alaska on Mon. 

$$

PKZ011-171715-
Glacier Bay-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the evening. Seas 2 ft or
less. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers
late. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
with snow. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or
less. 
.WED...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-171715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.SUN...S wind increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft. 
Rain showers.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 15 kt late. Gusts to
45 kt in the evening. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft late. Rain
showers. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-171715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Rain showers late. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt, except 45 kt
out of interior passes. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-171715-
Icy Strait-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late. 
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-171715-
Cross Sound-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 13 ft. S
swell. Rain showers late. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. SE swell. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-171715-
Stephens Passage-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing, except E wind 30 back side of 
of Douglas. Seas 6 ft subsiding. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-171715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-171715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 14 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except
16 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 19 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-171715-
Frederick Sound-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Gusts to 40 kt early. Seas 
4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds becoming E 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-171715-
Sumner Strait-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near 
ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft,
except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-171715-
Clarence Strait-
1020 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

030 
FZAK51 PAJK 171255
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-180330-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge of high pressure develops across the Inner Channels Sun 
afternoon and persists through Sun night. A storm force front 
approaches Southeast Alaska from the west on Mon. 

$$

PKZ011-180330-
Glacier Bay-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the morning. Seas 
building to 3 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers late. 
.MON...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
with snow. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-180330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft late. Rain showers late. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-180330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 
7 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 4 ft late. Rain showers late. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-180330-
Icy Strait-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-180330-
Cross Sound-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell.
Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming E late. Seas 11 ft. SW swell.
Rain showers late. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-180330-
Stephens Passage-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-180330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-180330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers early in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 6 ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 17 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-180330-
Frederick Sound-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers early 
in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-180330-
Sumner Strait-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-180330-
Clarence Strait-
355 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean 
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas building to 7 ft, except 9 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 13 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/The short term forecast
remains much of the same. We are on the second half of the most
recent storm force front with another (weaker) front expected
Sunday. Then a strong low will move into the gulf. This will
bring more storm force winds to the coast and high winds over
parts of the northern Panhandle late Sunday night into Monday.

The storm force winds along the coast from today will calm down
tonight. That being said, strong winds are still expected in open
waters. So, gale warnings come to end this evening but small
craft advisories last through the night.

Then tomorrow's front will keep the small crafts in place over
coastal waters and should kick the winds up in Lynn Canal so a
small craft advisory will go into effect Sunday morning.

Winds weaken late Sunday and Sunday night but they'll pick right
back up as that strong low moves into the gulf and pushes a strong
weather front into the panhandle early in the work week. By
Monday morning, open water winds will be around 40 to 50 knots
with winds in the inner channels getting up to 35 knots in the
afternoon.

Because of Monday's front, a High Wind Watch will be issued for
the northeast and east gulf coast and for parts of the central
inner channels due to possible high winds. This will be in effect
beginning Monday morning.

The parade of fronts and lows will keep a general south to
southwest flow over the panhandle so temps should stay above
normal with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and lows mostly in the
mid to upper 30s.

And this parade of fronts and lows will keep at least a chance of precip
in place over the panhandle through Monday night. But expected temps
should support rain for most of the panhandle.

That being said, there is a small area where temperatures could
cool down enough to support snow. So because of this, a Winter
Storm Watch will be issued for the far northeastern corner of the
northern inner channel. This will be in effect beginning Monday
morning.

Forecaster confidence in this forecast has been growing. The High
Wind forecast confidence is highest for Yakutat with moderate to
average forecast confidence for the rest. The Winter Storm
forecast confidence is moderate.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Pattern
change in the works as we head through next week. Initially we
will still be stuck in an active SW flow pattern aloft with at
least one more storm system moving through the area in the first
part of the long range. That gradually changes mid week into late
week as more ridging begins to show up over most of the Gulf of
Alaska and Central Alaska. However, this ridging is not strong
enough to be a blocking pattern as at least one storm will be
trying to push through the ridge and into the panhandle next
weekend. Depiction of the SW flow and the initial ridge mid next
week has fairly average forecast confidence, but that confidence
falls to low toward late week and next weekend as long range
guidance has trouble figuring out how strong system trying to
break through the ridge will play out and if it will make the
panhandle or not.

At the surface, the first part of the long range remains fairly
active with a wet storm-force front moving through the area Mon
into Mon night. IVT and PW anomalies continue to indicate a
fairly decent atmospheric river connection with this front.
Fortunately, the front does not linger over the area very long so
we are looking at around 1 to 3 inches of QPF over any given area
through Mon night right now. Still there will be periods of
moderate to even heavy rain at times for most of the panhandle.
Most areas will be warm enough for rain, but the Haines and
Klondike highways may see some snow (possibly several inches worth
near White Pass). Winds will be the other concern, but with the
parent low so far W, the front will be weakening as it moves E.
Storm force winds are expected for the northern gulf while gales
(Marine areas) and gusty winds 40 to 55 mph (land areas) are
expected elsewhere.

The forecast quiets down for Tues onward as the ridging aloft
begins to develop. Some fairly weak system will still try to
advance on the panhandle through the period, but they do not have
the strength that previous systems have had. There is also more
forecast uncertainty showing up from Wed onward as guidance tries
to figure out what to do with the developing ridge. Overall trends
point toward a drier forecast with the possibility of some cold
air working southeastward Thu into Fri. The cold air is somewhat
uncertain as the Canadian is being rather aggressive with it
while the ECMWF is not as aggressive and the GFS is has it barely
there at all. We will continue to monitor how this pattern change
develops.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025>028.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     AKZ017-022-023-025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053.

&&

GJS/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau