High Wind Watch 3, NWS Juneau, AK

706 
WWAK77 PAJK 171232
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

AKZ017-022-023-025-180030-
/O.CON.PAJK.HW.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T0600Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, 
Port Alexander, and Juneau
332 AM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Juneau, the Northeast Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Gulf 
  Coast including Sitka, Yakutat, Port Alexander, Pelican, and 
  Elfin Cove.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High winds are most likely Monday 
  afternoon, but could develop earlier Monday morning and 
  persist into Monday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

045 
WWAK77 PAJK 180021
NPWAJK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

AKZ022-180130-
/O.CAN.PAJK.HW.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T0600Z/
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Elfin Cove and Pelican
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

While wind gusts are expected to reach 45 mph, we no longer
expect high wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph. 

$$

AKZ017-181400-
/O.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0007.210118T1800Z-210119T0300Z/
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Including the city of Yakutat
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...The Northeast Gulf Coast including Yakutat.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 6 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should use caution when outside in forested areas and 
around trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive. Ensure
boats and aircraft are properly secured.

&&

$$

AKZ023-181400-
/O.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0007.210118T1800Z-210119T0600Z/
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Sitka and Port Alexander
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Baranof Island including Sitka, Port Alexander, and
  Little Port Walter.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should use caution when outside in forested areas and 
around trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive. Ensure
boats and aircraft are properly secured.

&&

$$

AKZ025-181400-
/O.UPG.PAJK.HW.A.0003.210118T1800Z-210119T0600Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.HW.W.0007.210118T2100Z-210119T0600Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
321 PM AKST Sun Jan 17 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM AKST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Juneau Borough.

* WHEN...From noon to 9 PM AKST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should use caution when outside in forested areas and 
around trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive. Ensure
boats and aircraft are properly secured.


&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/ajk

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
305 PM AKST Sat Jan 16 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Monday night/The short term forecast
remains much of the same. We are on the second half of the most
recent storm force front with another (weaker) front expected
Sunday. Then a strong low will move into the gulf. This will
bring more storm force winds to the coast and high winds over
parts of the northern Panhandle late Sunday night into Monday.

The storm force winds along the coast from today will calm down
tonight. That being said, strong winds are still expected in open
waters. So, gale warnings come to end this evening but small
craft advisories last through the night.

Then tomorrow's front will keep the small crafts in place over
coastal waters and should kick the winds up in Lynn Canal so a
small craft advisory will go into effect Sunday morning.

Winds weaken late Sunday and Sunday night but they'll pick right
back up as that strong low moves into the gulf and pushes a strong
weather front into the panhandle early in the work week. By
Monday morning, open water winds will be around 40 to 50 knots
with winds in the inner channels getting up to 35 knots in the
afternoon.

Because of Monday's front, a High Wind Watch will be issued for
the northeast and east gulf coast and for parts of the central
inner channels due to possible high winds. This will be in effect
beginning Monday morning.

The parade of fronts and lows will keep a general south to
southwest flow over the panhandle so temps should stay above
normal with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and lows mostly in the
mid to upper 30s.

And this parade of fronts and lows will keep at least a chance of precip
in place over the panhandle through Monday night. But expected temps
should support rain for most of the panhandle.

That being said, there is a small area where temperatures could
cool down enough to support snow. So because of this, a Winter
Storm Watch will be issued for the far northeastern corner of the
northern inner channel. This will be in effect beginning Monday
morning.

Forecaster confidence in this forecast has been growing. The High
Wind forecast confidence is highest for Yakutat with moderate to
average forecast confidence for the rest. The Winter Storm
forecast confidence is moderate.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday as of 10 pm Friday/ Pattern
change in the works as we head through next week. Initially we
will still be stuck in an active SW flow pattern aloft with at
least one more storm system moving through the area in the first
part of the long range. That gradually changes mid week into late
week as more ridging begins to show up over most of the Gulf of
Alaska and Central Alaska. However, this ridging is not strong
enough to be a blocking pattern as at least one storm will be
trying to push through the ridge and into the panhandle next
weekend. Depiction of the SW flow and the initial ridge mid next
week has fairly average forecast confidence, but that confidence
falls to low toward late week and next weekend as long range
guidance has trouble figuring out how strong system trying to
break through the ridge will play out and if it will make the
panhandle or not.

At the surface, the first part of the long range remains fairly
active with a wet storm-force front moving through the area Mon
into Mon night. IVT and PW anomalies continue to indicate a
fairly decent atmospheric river connection with this front.
Fortunately, the front does not linger over the area very long so
we are looking at around 1 to 3 inches of QPF over any given area
through Mon night right now. Still there will be periods of
moderate to even heavy rain at times for most of the panhandle.
Most areas will be warm enough for rain, but the Haines and
Klondike highways may see some snow (possibly several inches worth
near White Pass). Winds will be the other concern, but with the
parent low so far W, the front will be weakening as it moves E.
Storm force winds are expected for the northern gulf while gales
(Marine areas) and gusty winds 40 to 55 mph (land areas) are
expected elsewhere.

The forecast quiets down for Tues onward as the ridging aloft
begins to develop. Some fairly weak system will still try to
advance on the panhandle through the period, but they do not have
the strength that previous systems have had. There is also more
forecast uncertainty showing up from Wed onward as guidance tries
to figure out what to do with the developing ridge. Overall trends
point toward a drier forecast with the possibility of some cold
air working southeastward Thu into Fri. The cold air is somewhat
uncertain as the Canadian is being rather aggressive with it
while the ECMWF is not as aggressive and the GFS is has it barely
there at all. We will continue to monitor how this pattern change
develops.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ025>028.
     High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
     AKZ017-022-023-025.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043-051-052.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031-033>035-053.

&&

GJS/EAL

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau