Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021

Small Craft Advisory 653, NWS Juneau, AK

December 29, 2021

NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Dec 29, 2021, 4:31 AM AKST. It was in force for 21 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 29, 2021, 4:31 AM AKST (13:31 UTC)
Expired
Dec 30, 2021, 1:01 AM AKST
In force
21 hr
Issued by
NWS Juneau, AK

The text

As transmitted.

511 
FZAK51 PAJK 291331
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-300330-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low will over the northern gulf will drift SE over  the
panhandle through Wed afternoon and be out of the area by WEd
evening. High pressure will build over the Yukon on Thu to 
increased outflow winds. A strong weather front will moves into 
the eastern gulf Fri.  

$$

PKZ011-300330-
Glacier Bay-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
Snow early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-300330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming N 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 
ft. Snow early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-300330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-300330-
Icy Strait-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Strongest
winds over eastern areas. Seas 5 ft. Snow early in the morning. 
Rain in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-300330-
Cross Sound-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. S swell early in the morning. Snow early in the morning.
Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-300330-
Stephens Passage-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt early in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-300330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Snow early in the 
morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming light in the late evening. Seas
3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-300330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 
to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 4 ft. Near ocean 
entrances, seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow 
early in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 11 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-300330-
Frederick Sound-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...SE wind increasing to 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-300330-
Sumner Strait-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt, Seas building to 5 ft.
Near ocean entrances, seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain in the morning. Snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-300330-
Clarence Strait-
431 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. Near ocean
entrances, seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Snow in
the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$
4 follow-up statements
010 
FZAK51 PAJK 291740
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-300345-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low will over the northern gulf will drift SE over  the
panhandle through Wed afternoon and be out of the area by WEd
evening. High pressure will build over the Yukon on Thu to 
increased outflow winds. A strong weather front will moves into 
the eastern gulf Fri.  

$$

PKZ011-300345-
Glacier Bay-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-300345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-300345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N wind 15 kt then increasing to 
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt decreasing in the evening. Seas 5 ft
subsiding in the evening.
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-300345-
Icy Strait-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Strongest winds over eastern areas. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-300345-
Cross Sound-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-300345-
Stephens Passage-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Gusts
to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Strongest winds
to the south. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft late.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-300345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-300345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances.  
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-300345-
Frederick Sound-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft becoming 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas
6 ft in the evening then 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-300345-
Sumner Strait-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-300345-
Clarence Strait-
840 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$
182 
FZAK51 PAJK 291834 CCA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-300345-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low will over the northern gulf will drift SE over  the
panhandle through Wed afternoon and be out of the area by Wed
evening. High pressure will build over the Yukon on Thu to 
increased outflow winds. A strong weather front will moves into 
the eastern gulf Fri.  

$$

PKZ011-300345-
Glacier Bay-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-300345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming N 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.  
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-300345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming N wind 15 kt then increasing to 
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt decreasing in the evening. Seas 5 ft
subsiding in the evening.
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-300345-
Icy Strait-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Strongest winds over eastern areas. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft 
in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-300345-
Cross Sound-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-300345-
Stephens Passage-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Gusts
to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Strongest winds
to the south. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft late.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-300345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon.
Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-300345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances.  
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-300345-
Frederick Sound-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft becoming 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt decreasing to 20 kt in the evening. Seas
6 ft in the evening then 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-300345-
Sumner Strait-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021


...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-300345-
Clarence Strait-
934 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.REST OF TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean 
entrances. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$
095 
FZAK51 PAJK 300008
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-301715-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low over the central panhandle will quickly move SE out of the
area Wed evening. High pressure builds over the Yukon on Thu with
increasing outflow winds. Outlook. A strong weather front moves 
into the eastern gulf Fri. 

$$

PKZ011-301715-
Glacier Bay-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-301715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-301715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt decreasing to 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft late.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow
and rain. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-301715-
Icy Strait-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2
ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-301715-
Cross Sound-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-301715-
Stephens Passage-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. North of Taku
Inlet, N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and
rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-301715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-301715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the evening.
Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 
ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-301715-
Frederick Sound-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt late. Out of interior
passes, gusts to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding. Snow early in the 
evening.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the morning then 2
ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-301715-
Sumner Strait-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt 
early in the evening, Seas 5 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less.
Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. Snow early in the evening. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft 
late.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-301715-
Clarence Strait-
308 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain early in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft 
late.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$
379 
FZAK51 PAJK 301001 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-301530-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low over the central panhandle will quickly move SE out of the
area Wed evening. High pressure builds over the Yukon on Thu with
increasing outflow winds. Outlook. A strong weather front moves 
into the eastern gulf Fri. 

$$

PKZ011-301530-
Glacier Bay-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-301530-
Northern Lynn Canal-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-301530-
Southern Lynn Canal-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow
and rain. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-301530-
Icy Strait-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2
ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-301530-
Cross Sound-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.EARLY THIS MORNING...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-301530-
Stephens Passage-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and
rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-301530-
Northern Chatham Strait-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-301530-
Southern Chatham Strait-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 
ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 7 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-301530-
Frederick Sound-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of
interior passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the morning then 2
ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-301530-
Sumner Strait-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft 
late.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft
near ocean entrances. Snow and rain. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-301530-
Clarence Strait-
101 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

UPDATED

.EARLY THIS MORNING...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft 
late.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 28, 3:37 PM AKST, 12 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 28, 3:37 PM AKST, 12 hours 54 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...High clouds
are already on the increase in Yakutat ahead of the next fast
moving system expected to affect the panhandle late Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The forecast pressure field was adjusted early in
the timeframe to line up with observations of lighter than
expected winds in Lynn Canal, but other than that, the inherited
forecast represented the track and timing of the system nicely as
the low moves from NW to SE across the panhandle. Consequently,
the wind forecast was just touched up, with no major changes. The
system is still expected to produce gales on the outside and it
will induce a brief wind shift to the south in Lynn Canal around
midnight, then turning back northerly as the low exits to the
south Wednesday morning.

The bulk of the effort today was spent working on precipitation
type across the panhandle for Wednesday. Model soundings show
moist low levels with significant drying of the dendritic growth
zone at as the system passes. Therefore, the areas that could
experience freezing drizzle were expanded and incorporated into
the forecast as "snow with a chance of freezing drizzle". The
freezing drizzle threat tracks with the storm from NW to SE and is
fast moving, so no ice accumulation is expected at this time. Snow
amounts were lowered slightly due to this potential for drizzle.
If the precipitation type stays snow (rather than drizzle) then
amounts will be higher, but still in line with the Winter Weather
Advisories that are in effect for Juneau/Petersburg/Wrangell
areas. After this Wednesday storm moves off to the south, a
break is expected with clearing skies Wednesday night.

Forecaster confidence is solid on the track and timing of the
Wednesday system, but not very high on the exact locations/timing
of the freezing drizzle, so conditions will be monitored to keep
the forecast on track.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/ Amplified waves in the jet
stream will continue through the mid range making for dynamic
weather patterns over SE AK. After a short dry period expecting a
significant weather system to impact the entire AK Panhandle
starting Friday and continuing through early Sunday. Impactful
snow rates and totals, mixing precip, and increasing winds likely.
Behind this system the amplified wave pattern will bring bitterly
cold arctic airmass and increase outflow winds. This cold air
will likely remain in place through the week with record breaking
low temperatures likely.

For Thursday high pressure ridge over the AK Gulf with inverted
trough over the Panhandle will have higher northerly and outflow
winds, along with clearer skies and colder temps. This will not
last long.

Synoptic pattern for the weekend: surface low moves into the AK
Gulf early Friday with initial frontal boundary reaching the NE
Gulf coast. As the low deepens and front strengthens it crosses
over the entire Panhandle through the day. The low then tracks
southward along the panhandle coast with precip diminishing over
the northern and central areas through late Saturday. The southern
areas however will get an enhanced band of precip as the low
moves over the SE AK Gulf with precip then continuing into
Sunday. By the start of the week skies clear, cold air moves in
and winds pick up due to very high pressure over the Yukon and the
low now near Haida Gwaii.

QPF for the weekend. 24 hour totals for Friday are one quarter to
one and a quarter inches. For Saturday similar totals. Highest
amounts over the southern areas due to fetch of moisture aimed
directly there when viewing GFS and ECMWF IVT values. NBM QPF
totals were lower but operational GFS and ECMWF were still
significantly higher. Opted for a mid range compromise.

For central and northern areas snow totals on Friday of around 6
to 12 inches. Better confidence on these totals are cold air will
already be in place. NBM percentages for these totals were well
above 80%. GFS/ECMWF Ensembles were also indicating a mean of 10
inches accumulation. Saturday is another story, especially for the
south. NBM percentages were below 50% for these high totals and
getting rising snow levels and temperatures from some operational
modals. Ensembles snow totals at this time do have total
accumulations mean around 8 inches but a very large spread. Model
soundings from GFS do indicate a change over to rain during the
heaviest QPF, while MOS guidance keeps some temps near freezing
to keep a mix of rain and snow. Do think snow ratios will be much
lower on Saturday so that would keep totals down.

Behind this system seeing a highly amplified wave pattern at 500
mb. This has been a very impressive feature and it will result in
near record breaking lows for our area. In addition the very
tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Yukon and
surface low near Haida Gwaii will bring increased northerly and
outflow winds.

In summary: Thu cold and dry. Fri: Heavy snow. Sat: Moderate to
Heavy snow likely but totals uncertain especially for the
southern areas that could change briefly to rain. Sun: clearing
to the north with linger precip to the south. Mon onward: very
cold and windy.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-043-051-053.

&&

BFL/PRB

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

The office that day

Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 28, 3:16 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK36 hr
Dec 28, 3:16 PM AKSTGale WarningAJK36 hr
Dec 29, 4:15 AM AKSTGale WarningAJK23 hr
Dec 29, 8:40 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAJK16 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.