Gale Warning 318, NWS Juneau, AK

362 
FZAK52 PAJK 291826 CCA
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
926 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-300715-
926 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low will over the northern gulf will drift SE over  the
panhandle through Wed afternoon and be out of the area by Wed
evening. High pressure will build over the Yukon on Thu to 
increased outflow winds. A strong weather front will moves into 
the eastern gulf Fri.  

$$

PKZ041-300715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
926 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the morning, then
becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 15 ft
in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-300715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
926 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt in the morning, then
becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 13 ft late. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming W 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-300715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
926 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the early afternoon. 
Seas 9 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 15 ft
subsiding to 11 ft late. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming W 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-300715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
926 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the late morning. 
Seas 7 ft building to 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft
subsiding to 8 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-300715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
926 AM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the late morning. 
Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 7 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt becoming SW. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

773 
FZAK52 PAJK 300006
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-301815-
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low over the central panhandle will quickly move SE out of the
area Wed evening. High pressure builds over the Yukon on Thu with
increasing outflow winds. Outlook. A strong weather front moves 
into the eastern gulf Fri. 

$$

PKZ041-301815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 20 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-301815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 22 ft
subsiding to 16 ft late. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. W swell in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-301815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 21 ft 
subsiding to 12 ft late. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the 
afternoon. W swell in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain late. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt. Seas
15 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-301815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 19 ft
subsiding to 10 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow late. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...NE gale to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-301815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
306 PM AKST Wed Dec 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 16 ft
subsiding to 9 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

568 
FZAK52 PAJK 301224
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-310630-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure over the Yukon with low pressure over the coastal 
waters will continue outflow winds today. A strong weather front 
moves into the eastern gulf Fri. 

$$

PKZ041-310630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the
afternoon. NW swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-310630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 7 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-310630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 6 ft
in the afternoon. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain 
late.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt. Seas
15 ft. 
.MON...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-310630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE wind 25 kt. Seas building to 
8 ft.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow in the morning.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt increasing to gale to 45 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...NE gale to 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-310630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
324 AM AKST Thu Dec 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
Snow late. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Tue Dec 28 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Tuesday night through Wednesday night/...High clouds
are already on the increase in Yakutat ahead of the next fast
moving system expected to affect the panhandle late Tuesday night
and Wednesday. The forecast pressure field was adjusted early in
the timeframe to line up with observations of lighter than
expected winds in Lynn Canal, but other than that, the inherited
forecast represented the track and timing of the system nicely as
the low moves from NW to SE across the panhandle. Consequently,
the wind forecast was just touched up, with no major changes. The
system is still expected to produce gales on the outside and it
will induce a brief wind shift to the south in Lynn Canal around
midnight, then turning back northerly as the low exits to the
south Wednesday morning.

The bulk of the effort today was spent working on precipitation
type across the panhandle for Wednesday. Model soundings show
moist low levels with significant drying of the dendritic growth
zone at as the system passes. Therefore, the areas that could
experience freezing drizzle were expanded and incorporated into
the forecast as "snow with a chance of freezing drizzle". The
freezing drizzle threat tracks with the storm from NW to SE and is
fast moving, so no ice accumulation is expected at this time. Snow
amounts were lowered slightly due to this potential for drizzle.
If the precipitation type stays snow (rather than drizzle) then
amounts will be higher, but still in line with the Winter Weather
Advisories that are in effect for Juneau/Petersburg/Wrangell
areas. After this Wednesday storm moves off to the south, a
break is expected with clearing skies Wednesday night.

Forecaster confidence is solid on the track and timing of the
Wednesday system, but not very high on the exact locations/timing
of the freezing drizzle, so conditions will be monitored to keep
the forecast on track.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Sunday/ Amplified waves in the jet
stream will continue through the mid range making for dynamic
weather patterns over SE AK. After a short dry period expecting a
significant weather system to impact the entire AK Panhandle
starting Friday and continuing through early Sunday. Impactful
snow rates and totals, mixing precip, and increasing winds likely.
Behind this system the amplified wave pattern will bring bitterly
cold arctic airmass and increase outflow winds. This cold air
will likely remain in place through the week with record breaking
low temperatures likely.

For Thursday high pressure ridge over the AK Gulf with inverted
trough over the Panhandle will have higher northerly and outflow
winds, along with clearer skies and colder temps. This will not
last long.

Synoptic pattern for the weekend: surface low moves into the AK
Gulf early Friday with initial frontal boundary reaching the NE
Gulf coast. As the low deepens and front strengthens it crosses
over the entire Panhandle through the day. The low then tracks
southward along the panhandle coast with precip diminishing over
the northern and central areas through late Saturday. The southern
areas however will get an enhanced band of precip as the low
moves over the SE AK Gulf with precip then continuing into
Sunday. By the start of the week skies clear, cold air moves in
and winds pick up due to very high pressure over the Yukon and the
low now near Haida Gwaii.

QPF for the weekend. 24 hour totals for Friday are one quarter to
one and a quarter inches. For Saturday similar totals. Highest
amounts over the southern areas due to fetch of moisture aimed
directly there when viewing GFS and ECMWF IVT values. NBM QPF
totals were lower but operational GFS and ECMWF were still
significantly higher. Opted for a mid range compromise.

For central and northern areas snow totals on Friday of around 6
to 12 inches. Better confidence on these totals are cold air will
already be in place. NBM percentages for these totals were well
above 80%. GFS/ECMWF Ensembles were also indicating a mean of 10
inches accumulation. Saturday is another story, especially for the
south. NBM percentages were below 50% for these high totals and
getting rising snow levels and temperatures from some operational
modals. Ensembles snow totals at this time do have total
accumulations mean around 8 inches but a very large spread. Model
soundings from GFS do indicate a change over to rain during the
heaviest QPF, while MOS guidance keeps some temps near freezing
to keep a mix of rain and snow. Do think snow ratios will be much
lower on Saturday so that would keep totals down.

Behind this system seeing a highly amplified wave pattern at 500
mb. This has been a very impressive feature and it will result in
near record breaking lows for our area. In addition the very
tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Yukon and
surface low near Haida Gwaii will bring increased northerly and
outflow winds.

In summary: Thu cold and dry. Fri: Heavy snow. Sat: Moderate to
Heavy snow likely but totals uncertain especially for the
southern areas that could change briefly to rain. Sun: clearing
to the north with linger precip to the south. Mon onward: very
cold and windy.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ026.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ025.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-031-043-051-053.

&&

BFL/PRB

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