Small Craft Advisory 633, NWS Juneau, AK

079 
FZAK52 PAJK 190011
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191815-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of lower pressure remains over the panhandle  while
high pressure builds over NW Canada into early next week.  

$$

PKZ041-191815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft building to
13 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-191815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 9 ft building to
13 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-191815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-191815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-191815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

429 
FZAK52 PAJK 191229
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200630-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of lower pressure remains over the panhandle while high
pressure persists over NW Canada into early next week. Outlook.
An area of low pressure will develop in the northern gulf Mon
night and track SE along the outer coast through Tue night. 

$$

PKZ041-200630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Higher gusts out of Cross Sound. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

567 
FZAK52 PAJK 200011
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-201815-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of lower pressure remains over the panhandle while high
pressure persists over NW Canada into early next week. Outlook.
An area of low pressure will develop in the northern gulf Mon
night and track SE along the outer coast through Tue night. 

$$

PKZ041-201815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-201815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-201815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain late. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-201815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow late. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-201815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
311 PM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the evening, then
becoming light late. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Rain late. 
.TUE...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
922 PM AKST Fri Dec 17 2021

.UPDATE...
A band of snow has remained over the region from northern Ketchikan
to NE Prince of Wales to Port Alexander all evening. Snow ratios
are high, resulting in dry/fluffy snow accumulating quickly with
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour reported. The advisory for Port
Alexander was upgraded to a Warning earlier based on a report of 8
inches already falling, which was followed up a couple hours later
with an additional 3 inches. The band will weaken as the assoc
low center SW of Cape Decision shifts S to SE through midnight.

Elsewhere, clearing skies will cause temperatures to fall
overnight. Building high pressure over the Yukon and the low
moving to the south will cause increasing northerly outflow winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 346 PM Fri...

SHORT TERM.../Through Sunday night/ The short term period starts
off with light snow across the region as an area of low pressure
spins off the coast of Prince of Wales Island. The forecast has
remained on track so far today with 1 to 4 inches of snow already
reported area wide. An additional 1 to 3 inches is expected
across the Southern Panhandle this evening as the main gale force
front approaches the southern Outer Coast. A few areas may over
achieve on snow amounts as the dry, powdery snow accumulates very
easily on already frozen surfaces. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in effect through this evening from Port Alexander to POW
Island to Ketchikan. Snowfall continues its diminishing trend
tonight as the low moves SE towards Haida Gwaii and dry northerly
outflow sets up behind it.

Once precipitation exits the region tonight, dry weather is
expected to persist into early next week for all of Southeast
Alaska. The main impacts through this period will be strong
northerly outflow through the channels and colder temperatures.
High end small craft to gale conditions develop through the
Northern Inner Channels and interior passes beginning Saturday
night as an arctic high builds across NW Canada. Northerly winds
will usher in more cold air keeping temperatures well below normal
through at least Monday. Lows dropping down into the single digits
will be possible once again in wind sheltered areas and across
much of the Northern Panhandle.

Overall forecast confidence remains high through the short term.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday night/...the mid range
forecast begins with clear and cold and windy weather over the
panhandle.

POPS were kept very low, 0%, for land areas Sunday and most of
Monday. Some passing clouds are possible early Sunday but clear to
mostly clear skies move in quickly and last through Sunday night
and well into Monday. Then cloud cover should increase Monday
night ahead of the next low that would bring snow to the
panhandle.

Snow would move into the panhandle through Yakutat area first
Monday night. The low is projected to move southeast through the
gulf coast through Tuesday, so the snow would track southeast
through the panhandle. Just ahead of the low, 850mb temps are
projected to get near -2C in the central and southern panhandle,
so rain/snow mixing was allowed to stay in the forecast but
confidence is low due to surface temps only get a couple degrees
above 32 before cooling back to the 20s for Tuesday night.

The 24 hour QPF amounts for Tuesday through Tuesday night range
from near a tenth of an inch in the northern inner channels to
about a half inch on the western side of POW Island. This idea is
backed up by the model ensemble outputs. 24 hour QPF probabilities
of more than 0.10” was greater than 60 to 70% but probabilities
of more than 0.50” were around 20-40%. So if typical SE AK snow
ratios play out, overall snowfall amounts shouldn't be too high.
Went with a comfortable one to four inch range, but locally
higher amounts are possible. As this event gets closer,
forecaster confidence will increase with use of hi-res models in
addition to ensemble probabilities.

Inner channel wind forecast was, overall, left to ride due to
expected strong outflow winds. Outside waters were touched up to
try to incorporate the details in wind speed and direction as the
low passes. Overall, still expecting gale force winds in outside
waters as low passes on Tuesday.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ027-
     028.
     Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ022.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind through Saturday afternoon for AKZ018.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-035-036-041>043-
     051-052.

&&

CM/GJS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
936 PM AKST FRI DEC 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     SNOW             8 NW KETCHIKAN          55.45N 131.82W
12/17/2021  M7.2 INCH        KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOW BEGAN AROUND 625AM. MEASURED 2.7 INCHES
            AT 3PM AND ANOTHER 4.5 INCHES BY 830PM. SNOW
            WAS STILL FALLING MODERATELY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1052 PM AKST FRI DEC 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     SNOW             THORNE BAY              55.69N 132.52W
12/17/2021  E6.0 INCH        PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 6 INCHES OF FLUFFY DRY SNOW.
            WAS STILL SNOWING AT THE TIME.

0859 PM     SNOW             WHALE PASS              56.12N 133.12W
12/17/2021  E6.0 INCH        PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT 638PM,
            THEN 6 INCHES AT 859PM. SNOW WAS STILL
            FALLING.

&&