Small Craft Advisory 632, NWS Juneau, AK

171 
FZAK52 PAJK 181223
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-190630-
323 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of lower pressure remains over the southern panhandle 
and outer coast while high pressure builds over NW Canada into 
early next week. 

$$

PKZ041-190630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
323 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-190630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
323 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 25 kt this morning. Seas 11 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-190630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
323 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding late. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-190630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
323 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-190630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
323 AM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

079 
FZAK52 PAJK 190011
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-191815-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of lower pressure remains over the panhandle  while
high pressure builds over NW Canada into early next week.  

$$

PKZ041-191815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 8 ft building to
13 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-191815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 9 ft building to
13 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-191815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-191815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-191815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
311 PM AKST Sat Dec 18 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

429 
FZAK52 PAJK 191229
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200630-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A trough of lower pressure remains over the panhandle while high
pressure persists over NW Canada into early next week. Outlook.
An area of low pressure will develop in the northern gulf Mon
night and track SE along the outer coast through Tue night. 

$$

PKZ041-200630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Higher gusts out of Cross Sound. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas
6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
329 AM AKST Sun Dec 19 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...Light winds becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
535 AM AKST Fri Dec 17 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Friday and Friday night/ A weather front is
bringing snow to many parts of the panhandle this morning.
Currently snow has been observed from Petersburg and Klawock and
points west and north. Lowest visibility and ceilings have been
seen at Skagway and Haines overnight with webcams indicating that
around 1 to 2 inches of accumulation was seen at Skagway.

For Friday and Friday night, snow will be the rule of the day for
most places. Initially it will be focused on the northern
panhandle but with increasing easterly flow across the north the
precip will shift to the southern panhandle by afternoon. Highest
snow accumulations are expected along the outer coast and southern
panhandle where winter weather advisories remain up for 3 to 6
inches of new snow though other areas will likely see around 1 to
3 inches of new snow regardless. The main exception to the snow
rule will be Sitka (currently sitting at 37 degrees), and the
extreme southern parts of the panhandle where temps should get
just warm enough for some rain to start mixing in with the snow.
This will cause snow accumulations to vary widely with some areas
staying snow and getting a few inches while others see more rain
mixing in with snow totals drastically reduced as a result.

Winds will be the other factor. Some northerly winds are still
blowing in the northern panhandle this morning though much reduced
compared to yesterday. These winds will remain low through Friday,
but will start to increase again tonight as the Yukon low starts
to rebuild. The other source of wind comes from the incoming
system. SE to E winds will be dominate across the southern
panhandle Today into Tonight. Wind gusts could reach 35 or 40 mph
this afternoon near Hydaburg and other parts of southern Prince of
Wales Island. Marine winds will mostly be around 20 to 25 kt but
an area of min gales is likely just offshore of Baranof Island
this afternoon as the main frontal band with the system
approaches.

LONG TERM.../Saturday onward/...The mid range forecast begins
with a surface low and associated chances of precip moving south
out of the area as a 500mb high builds in. So Saturday should end
up seeing clear to mostly clear skies over the panhandle. Kept
strong winds in Lynn Canal due to tight pressure gradient between
Icy Strait corridor and Skagway.

Sunday and Monday look dry with clear to mostly skies as a 500mb
ridge will control the skies over southern and southeast Alaska.
Outflow winds will still be strong for the northern inner channel
marine waters.

Temperatures will still be below normal for Saturday through
Monday. So lows will, generally, be in the teens to 20s and highs
in the 20s to 30s. Coldest temps in the north, warmest in the
south, but still overall, below normal.

Tuesday is when the weather pattern has potential to change. That
being said, models usually bring weather pattern changes in too
soon so this change in the weather pattern could end up being
pushed back by a day. However, if the current projections play
out, a quick moving low pressure system would pass through the NE
gulf. This passing low would give the panhandle another round of
rain and snow Monday night into Tuesday.

As this low pressure moves southwards, there is good model agreement
that the outflow pattern returns, keeping the precipitation and
temperatures below normal through the end of next week and into
the Holiday weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight AKST
     tonight for AKZ027-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ023.
     Strong Wind late tonight for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-033-035-036-051-052.

&&

EAL/GJS/KRT

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