Small Craft Advisory 609, NWS Juneau, AK

748 
FZAK51 PAJK 081229
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-090445-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A gale force low in the NE Gulf will track over the central
Panhandle through Wednesday. Outlook: Another strong system will
move into the northern gulf Thursday into Friday.  

$$

PKZ011-090445-
Glacier Bay-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in 
the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
and snow. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-090445-
Northern Lynn Canal-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming N. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers early
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Snow showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow
and rain. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-090445-
Southern Lynn Canal-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. 
Snow showers. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow
and rain. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-090445-
Icy Strait-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming E in the morning, then becoming W
in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 4 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-090445-
Cross Sound-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming E 20 kt in the morning, then 
becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. S swell. Rain 
showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming E late. Seas 14 ft subsiding to
10 ft late. S swell in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. S swell. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-090445-
Stephens Passage-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain showers 
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon. Snow showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain
and snow. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-090445-
Northern Chatham Strait-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-090445-
Southern Chatham Strait-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 20 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft late. Near
ocean entrances, seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft late. 
.THU...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 12 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 13 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-090445-
Frederick Sound-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon. Snow showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-090445-
Sumner Strait-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 15 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. Snow showers in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-090445-
Clarence Strait-
329 AM AKST Wed Dec 8 2021

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft, 
except 11 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S gale to 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 PM AKST Tue Dec 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...A front passing over the panhandle has caused snow
for much of the region followed by a wind shift to the SW and a
slight warm up. Winds continue to be gusty in many places and that
will keep temperatures just on the warm side of freezing this
evening, limiting accumulations somewhat. Hyder remains under an
advisory until midnight when the warm up is expected to reach
them around the same time the bulk of the precip is past.

Despite the fropa, the parent low remains over the northern gulf
west of Yakutat. This low will be the main cause of showers
continuing through Wednesday. CAA behind the front also means that
the showers will trend back to primarily snow showers.
Accumulations will be highly variable with "nice" breaks in
between. A quick couple inches is likely with some of the showers,
particularly along west facing slopes, such as the Juneau area,
both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The northern gulf low looks to slowly weaken to a trough then
settles over the Icy Strait region on Wednesday. Location of the
trough will cause some direction adjustments for the inside
waters, ie. S-SW winds on the south side of the trough and N-NE
winds on the north side.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday morning through Sunday as of 3pm
Tuesday/...A second impactful system is moving a bit faster than
forecasted towards the Gulf of Alaska for Thursday evening,
bringing widespread precipitation and wind gusts. As the main
front from this system passes, expect outflow winds to begin and a
large dip in the temperatures across the panhandle.

The mid-range begins with a lull between the two systems and a
quick break in the precipitation late Thursday morning.
Widespread precipitation starts late Thursday with those areas
starting as snowfall changing to a mix of precipitation early
Friday morning. Areas to watch for over 4 inches of snowfall from
this system include Yakutat, Haines, Juneau, and Petersburg. Heavy
rainfall at times expected in Sitka and Ketchikan. Winds are
expected increase in the Northern Lynn, resulting in a warm-up
and a possible changeover to rain Friday. All locations across the
panhandle should change back to snow late Friday. Eyes will then
shift to Sitka, Klawock, and Ketchikan where snowfall may start to
accumulate Saturday. This is highly dependent on the track of the
low, which is of low confidence.

Winds will pick up as the front moves in and gale-force barrier
jet forms off of Yakutat Thursday. The backside of the surface
low in the Gulf will have the strongest winds with storm-force
expected, but those winds should not encroach into our forecast
domain. As this surface low moves along SE along the coast, a
strong pressure gradients will result in outflow winds, with the
strongest gusts expected in the Northern Lynn region late
Saturday.

Temperatures will influence the outcome of the week and more
details are discussed below. The forecast anticipates the highest
temperature during the mid-term to occur Friday morning. Once
areas reach the high for that day, expect a consistent decrease
in temperatures through the weekend. For example, maximum
temperatures on Sunday will barely reach freezing in the southern
half of the panhandle and the northern portion is expected to
remain in the teens.

Anchorage has noted that the GFS is depicting the low well, so
decided to lean towards that model as well. This resulted in a
change to our probability in precipitation, and thus the snow
total forecast. The forecast was also shifted about 3 hours to
accommodate the front moving in quicker. Possibilities of strong
winds on land from this system have decreased, but with lower
forecast confidence.

/ Sunday to Monday / Some minor timing differences between them,
however, most model solutions are indicating that a high amplitude
long wave trough moves into the eastern gulf and SE AK. This will
allow the colder air to spill southeast to the Yukon Territory
and Northwestern British Columbia. Very cold outflow looking to
start Sunday and continue into Monday. Ensemble means are looking
at standard deviations of around -4 for the temperatures. The
coldest will be near the northern portion of the panhandle along
the border area of Klondike and Haines Highways. 850 Mb
temperatures look to be near -20 to -24 C.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-033>035-051-053.

&&

Ferrin/KRT

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau