Small Craft Advisory 55, NWS Juneau, AK

405 
FZAK53 PAJK 290050
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-291900-
Yakutat Bay-
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft late. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell.
Snow showers in the morning, then snow showers and rain showers
in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
10 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

756 
FZAK53 PAJK 291234
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-300645-
Yakutat Bay-
334 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Snow
showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind decreasing to 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the 
evening. Seas 10 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

757 
FZAK53 PAJK 300032
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
332 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-301845-
Yakutat Bay-
332 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Snow showers and
rain showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

406 
FZAK53 PAJK 301236
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-310645-
Yakutat Bay-
336 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. S swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow
showers. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...Cold, dry, and windy pattern due to strong high
pressure over the Yukon will transition to 'warmer' and increased
precipitation as a low and gale force front move into the eastern
gulf for the end of the week. Still uncertainty on wave
development along the front in the SE Gulf Friday night into
Saturday.

Strong outflow winds and cold temperatures were the word of the
day for SE AK. Gusts out of channeled terrain over waterways
upwards of 70 mph were reported in the past 24 hours with snow
plumes off of mountain tops. Strongest winds were out of Taku
inlet and Lynn Canal. Mountain wave for downtown Juneau did not
fully develop but some brief gusts of 50 mph and higher were
reported. Temperatures in the teens to low 20s occurred overnight
with higher elevations in the single digits to below zero.
Wednesday night will be the coldest so far with temps in the low
teens to single digits, especially in wind sheltered areas. Wind
chill advisory for White Pass was extended until 6 am Thursday
morning. As the Yukon high weakens northerly and outflow winds
will drop off this evening. Skagway winds should stay up longer
since the pressure gradient will shift from N-S to NE-SW but be
tight enough to keep gusts through Thursday morning.

The next low moves just south of the AK Peninsula Thursday night
into Friday morning with associated gale force front crossing
into the eastern gulf. Gale winds will mainly be in the NE Gulf
with barrier jet formation. Precip along the front is expected to
remain along the coastal areas with limited eastward progression.
The main issue is a wave developing along a triple point in the
SE Gulf and its eventual strength and track. Operational model
runs were just starting to indicate the new low with runs showing
large spread in track and strength. Earlier ensembles were not
showing much development. Starting to see some consolidation as
new models come in, so will be monitoring this. If it is a deeper
low this may help dry out some locations along the coast. What is
expected is as the front moves in for a 'warming' trend, temps
increasing to 20s to low 30s, but precip will start as snow. With
dry conditions not seeing much of a seeder feeder set up lasting
for the coast but a consistent QPF produces 24 snow totals for
Yakutat up to 8 inches. Snow ratios will be the big question. Have
them in the 15-10:1 range with ratios dropping as temps increase.
Snow totals further down the coast only in the 1 to 4 inch range
likely.

Early part of the forecast changes were limited, some local wind
and temp adjustments but overall stayed on track. Used a blend
for the frontal wave development Friday night. Forecast confidence
drops as the week moves on.

.LONG TERM...With an upper low firmly entrenched over the western
Gulf of Alaska and our heavy-duty ridge responsible for all of our
dry and cold weather this week shoved into western Canada, energy
associated with the North Pacific storm track jets forward to the
south of us. This effectively slows the threatening surface front
offshore, all but preventing moisture incursion through the Inner
Channels. Not only does the action to the south hinder forward
progress of the precipitation, but it also helps preserve the cold
air and very low freezing levels throughout most of the Panhandle
Friday into the early weekend. The bulk of precipitation then
should fall as snow uncharacteristically for coastal communities
and the south, rather than the typically snowier northern Inner
Channels.

This pattern persists later into the weekend, except that the
lowest heights migrate to the south of us rather than the west.
Cold continues, yes. But chances of precipitation should fall as
we head into early next week with increasing offshore flow. With
this in mind, there should be periods of outflow winds, stronger
in the northern Inner Channels, and much of the time period,
northerly winds dominate.

Sometime early next week, a North Pacific storm well to our west
begins to accelerate the train of synoptic features--including
ridges and troughs--to the east once again. Thus, a ridge rebuilds
early next week, but just as quickly folds into Canada as frontal
action sweeps into the Gulf of Alaska. Therefore, precipitation
pushes back into the Panhandle. For now, we see little reason to
believe that much of it will fall as snow. But temperature
confidence by mid-next week falls, and thus p-type as well.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ019-025.
     Strong Wind through Thursday morning for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM AKST Friday
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-034-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-041>043-051.

&&

PRB/JWA

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau