Small Craft Advisory 53, NWS Juneau, AK

112 
FZAK51 PAJK 280435 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-281715-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Strong northerly and outflow winds diminish Wed night into Thu
as high pressure over the Yukon weakens. A gale force  front
moves into the eastern gulf late Thu into Fri.  

$$

PKZ011-281715-
Glacier Bay-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the evening 
then 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow late. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-281715-
Northern Lynn Canal-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 11 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-281715-
Southern Lynn Canal-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
Freezing spray in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-281715-
Icy Strait-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-281715-
Cross Sound-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-281715-
Stephens Passage-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. North of Taku
Inlet, NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 5 ft late. Freezing
spray. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-281715-
Northern Chatham Strait-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas 8 ft
subsiding.
.THU...N wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-281715-
Southern Chatham Strait-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt late. Seas 6 ft
subsiding to 3 ft late. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
8 ft near ocean entrances. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-281715-
Frederick Sound-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Gusts to
45 kt in the evening. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-281715-
Sumner Strait-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas
4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-281715-
Clarence Strait-
735 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 
ft near ocean entrances. Snow.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

844 
FZAK51 PAJK 281305
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-290345-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
High pressure shifted into northern B.C. with outflow turning
out of the east. A gale force front moves across the eastern gulf
from the west through Thursday night. A new low center will track
northward into the SE gulf Friday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ011-290345-
Glacier Bay-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow late. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-290345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft subsiding to 2 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4 
ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-290345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing in the morning. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4 
ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-290345-
Icy Strait-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-290345-
Cross Sound-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers in the
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-290345-
Stephens Passage-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 
kt out of interior passes in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray late. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-290345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Higher
gusts near the northern end. Seas building to 3 ft in the 
afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas
4 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Rain and snow showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain showers.

.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-290345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building to 5 
ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft,
except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Snow showers and rain showers
in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-290345-
Frederick Sound-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of 
interior passes. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-290345-
Sumner Strait-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt. 
Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 20 kt. Out of interior passes, 
gusts to 40 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Gusts 45 kt out of interior passes. Seas 4 
ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-290345-
Clarence Strait-
405 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 
3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers in the 
afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...Cold, dry, and windy pattern due to strong high
pressure over the Yukon will transition to 'warmer' and increased
precipitation as a low and gale force front move into the eastern
gulf for the end of the week. Still uncertainty on wave
development along the front in the SE Gulf Friday night into
Saturday.

Strong outflow winds and cold temperatures were the word of the
day for SE AK. Gusts out of channeled terrain over waterways
upwards of 70 mph were reported in the past 24 hours with snow
plumes off of mountain tops. Strongest winds were out of Taku
inlet and Lynn Canal. Mountain wave for downtown Juneau did not
fully develop but some brief gusts of 50 mph and higher were
reported. Temperatures in the teens to low 20s occurred overnight
with higher elevations in the single digits to below zero.
Wednesday night will be the coldest so far with temps in the low
teens to single digits, especially in wind sheltered areas. Wind
chill advisory for White Pass was extended until 6 am Thursday
morning. As the Yukon high weakens northerly and outflow winds
will drop off this evening. Skagway winds should stay up longer
since the pressure gradient will shift from N-S to NE-SW but be
tight enough to keep gusts through Thursday morning.

The next low moves just south of the AK Peninsula Thursday night
into Friday morning with associated gale force front crossing
into the eastern gulf. Gale winds will mainly be in the NE Gulf
with barrier jet formation. Precip along the front is expected to
remain along the coastal areas with limited eastward progression.
The main issue is a wave developing along a triple point in the
SE Gulf and its eventual strength and track. Operational model
runs were just starting to indicate the new low with runs showing
large spread in track and strength. Earlier ensembles were not
showing much development. Starting to see some consolidation as
new models come in, so will be monitoring this. If it is a deeper
low this may help dry out some locations along the coast. What is
expected is as the front moves in for a 'warming' trend, temps
increasing to 20s to low 30s, but precip will start as snow. With
dry conditions not seeing much of a seeder feeder set up lasting
for the coast but a consistent QPF produces 24 snow totals for
Yakutat up to 8 inches. Snow ratios will be the big question. Have
them in the 15-10:1 range with ratios dropping as temps increase.
Snow totals further down the coast only in the 1 to 4 inch range
likely.

Early part of the forecast changes were limited, some local wind
and temp adjustments but overall stayed on track. Used a blend
for the frontal wave development Friday night. Forecast confidence
drops as the week moves on.

.LONG TERM...With an upper low firmly entrenched over the western
Gulf of Alaska and our heavy-duty ridge responsible for all of our
dry and cold weather this week shoved into western Canada, energy
associated with the North Pacific storm track jets forward to the
south of us. This effectively slows the threatening surface front
offshore, all but preventing moisture incursion through the Inner
Channels. Not only does the action to the south hinder forward
progress of the precipitation, but it also helps preserve the cold
air and very low freezing levels throughout most of the Panhandle
Friday into the early weekend. The bulk of precipitation then
should fall as snow uncharacteristically for coastal communities
and the south, rather than the typically snowier northern Inner
Channels.

This pattern persists later into the weekend, except that the
lowest heights migrate to the south of us rather than the west.
Cold continues, yes. But chances of precipitation should fall as
we head into early next week with increasing offshore flow. With
this in mind, there should be periods of outflow winds, stronger
in the northern Inner Channels, and much of the time period,
northerly winds dominate.

Sometime early next week, a North Pacific storm well to our west
begins to accelerate the train of synoptic features--including
ridges and troughs--to the east once again. Thus, a ridge rebuilds
early next week, but just as quickly folds into Canada as frontal
action sweeps into the Gulf of Alaska. Therefore, precipitation
pushes back into the Panhandle. For now, we see little reason to
believe that much of it will fall as snow. But temperature
confidence by mid-next week falls, and thus p-type as well.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ019-025.
     Strong Wind through Thursday morning for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM AKST Friday
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-034-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-041>043-051.

&&

PRB/JWA

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