Gale Warning 51, NWS Juneau, AK

153 
FZAK52 PAJK 281306
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
406 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-290715-
406 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
High pressure shifted into northern B.C. with outflow turning
out of the east. A gale force front moves across the eastern gulf
from the west through Thursday night. A new low center will track
northward into the SE gulf Friday afternoon. 

$$

PKZ041-290715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
406 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft. W swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-290715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
406 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt in the morning, becoming SE and
increasing to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow late. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming E 20 kt. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-290715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
406 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the morning, 
then SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Higher gusts out of Cross Sound. 
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 11 
ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-290715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
406 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Snow in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 12 
ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-290715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
406 AM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft building to 10 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow and rain. 
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

970 
FZAK52 PAJK 290050
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-291900-
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force front moves across the eastern gulf from the west
through Thursday night. A new low center will track northward 
into the SE gulf Friday afternoon through Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-291900-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Snow showers in the morning. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-291900-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building
to 11 ft late. Snow late. 
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow showers in the morning. 
Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt becoming S late. Seas 17 ft. Rain
showers. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-291900-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft building
to 13 ft late. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-291900-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft building
to 14 ft late. Snow. Rain late. 
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers in the morning.
Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-291900-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
350 PM AKST Thu Jan 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain, snow.
.FRI...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Snow showers in the morning. Rain showers. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
12 ft. Snow showers in the evening. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

316 
FZAK52 PAJK 291233
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-300645-
333 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low will track north along the SE gulf coast Friday afternoon
through Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-300645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
333 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft building to
15 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers early in the morning. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-300645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
333 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow 
showers early in the morning. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain 
showers and snow showers in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-300645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
333 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt decreasing to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow 
showers and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers in the evening. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 9 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-300645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
333 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt decreasing to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow 
showers and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 20 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
showers and snow showers in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-300645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
333 AM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt decreasing to 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow 
showers and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 13 ft.
Snow showers in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SE swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

549 
FZAK52 PAJK 300037
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-301845-
337 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low will track north along the outer coast of 
Southeast Alaska through Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-301845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. Rain
showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 
ft. W swell.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-301845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SW 25 kt late. Seas 15 ft. Rain 
showers in the evening.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-301845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 
ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-301845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Out of 
interior bays and passes, gusts to 40 kt in the evening. Seas 15 
ft. Rain showers and snow showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...E wind increasing to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior bays
and passes. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-301845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKST Fri Jan 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain showers and snow showers in the evening. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt becoming W in the morning. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

594 
FZAK52 PAJK 301235
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
335 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-310645-
335 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low moves northwest along the outer coast Saturday 
before dissipating Saturday night. A new low develops west of 
Haida Gwaii. Offshore flow increases across the panhandle Saturday
night through Sunday keeping the low south of the gulf.

$$

PKZ041-310645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
335 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-310645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
335 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. W swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-310645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
335 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding 
to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain showers and snow showers early in 
the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. W swell. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-310645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
335 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 13 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft. SW
swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
bays and passes. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-310645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
335 AM AKST Sat Jan 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
SW swell in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
303 PM AKST Wed Jan 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...Cold, dry, and windy pattern due to strong high
pressure over the Yukon will transition to 'warmer' and increased
precipitation as a low and gale force front move into the eastern
gulf for the end of the week. Still uncertainty on wave
development along the front in the SE Gulf Friday night into
Saturday.

Strong outflow winds and cold temperatures were the word of the
day for SE AK. Gusts out of channeled terrain over waterways
upwards of 70 mph were reported in the past 24 hours with snow
plumes off of mountain tops. Strongest winds were out of Taku
inlet and Lynn Canal. Mountain wave for downtown Juneau did not
fully develop but some brief gusts of 50 mph and higher were
reported. Temperatures in the teens to low 20s occurred overnight
with higher elevations in the single digits to below zero.
Wednesday night will be the coldest so far with temps in the low
teens to single digits, especially in wind sheltered areas. Wind
chill advisory for White Pass was extended until 6 am Thursday
morning. As the Yukon high weakens northerly and outflow winds
will drop off this evening. Skagway winds should stay up longer
since the pressure gradient will shift from N-S to NE-SW but be
tight enough to keep gusts through Thursday morning.

The next low moves just south of the AK Peninsula Thursday night
into Friday morning with associated gale force front crossing
into the eastern gulf. Gale winds will mainly be in the NE Gulf
with barrier jet formation. Precip along the front is expected to
remain along the coastal areas with limited eastward progression.
The main issue is a wave developing along a triple point in the
SE Gulf and its eventual strength and track. Operational model
runs were just starting to indicate the new low with runs showing
large spread in track and strength. Earlier ensembles were not
showing much development. Starting to see some consolidation as
new models come in, so will be monitoring this. If it is a deeper
low this may help dry out some locations along the coast. What is
expected is as the front moves in for a 'warming' trend, temps
increasing to 20s to low 30s, but precip will start as snow. With
dry conditions not seeing much of a seeder feeder set up lasting
for the coast but a consistent QPF produces 24 snow totals for
Yakutat up to 8 inches. Snow ratios will be the big question. Have
them in the 15-10:1 range with ratios dropping as temps increase.
Snow totals further down the coast only in the 1 to 4 inch range
likely.

Early part of the forecast changes were limited, some local wind
and temp adjustments but overall stayed on track. Used a blend
for the frontal wave development Friday night. Forecast confidence
drops as the week moves on.

.LONG TERM...With an upper low firmly entrenched over the western
Gulf of Alaska and our heavy-duty ridge responsible for all of our
dry and cold weather this week shoved into western Canada, energy
associated with the North Pacific storm track jets forward to the
south of us. This effectively slows the threatening surface front
offshore, all but preventing moisture incursion through the Inner
Channels. Not only does the action to the south hinder forward
progress of the precipitation, but it also helps preserve the cold
air and very low freezing levels throughout most of the Panhandle
Friday into the early weekend. The bulk of precipitation then
should fall as snow uncharacteristically for coastal communities
and the south, rather than the typically snowier northern Inner
Channels.

This pattern persists later into the weekend, except that the
lowest heights migrate to the south of us rather than the west.
Cold continues, yes. But chances of precipitation should fall as
we head into early next week with increasing offshore flow. With
this in mind, there should be periods of outflow winds, stronger
in the northern Inner Channels, and much of the time period,
northerly winds dominate.

Sometime early next week, a North Pacific storm well to our west
begins to accelerate the train of synoptic features--including
ridges and troughs--to the east once again. Thus, a ridge rebuilds
early next week, but just as quickly folds into Canada as frontal
action sweeps into the Gulf of Alaska. Therefore, precipitation
pushes back into the Panhandle. For now, we see little reason to
believe that much of it will fall as snow. But temperature
confidence by mid-next week falls, and thus p-type as well.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ019-025.
     Strong Wind through Thursday morning for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM AKST Thursday for AKZ018.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM AKST Friday
     for AKZ017.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-031-034-052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-041>043-051.

&&

PRB/JWA

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