Small Craft Advisory 492, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau
AK 256 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Saturday / The story continues about the
two back-to-back strong low-pressure systems moving NW along the
outer coast this weekend. The first system is currently to the south
of the panhandle and will move NW through Friday. The second one is
not far behind and will start impacting the southern panhandle
Friday evening. This low is forecasted to track more offshore than
the first, which may decrease its impacts on the panhandle.

A High Wind Warning is in effect until Friday for the southern half
of the panhandle. Ketchikan, Metlakatla, Craig, Hydaburg, and
surrounding areas will first see the winds, with gusts up to 60 mph.
The highest sustained winds from this first low are forecasted for
the southern portion of the panhandle Friday morning. An ASCAT pass
from this afternoon picked up 35 to 45 kt (~40-50mph) winds south of
the panhandle.

Precipitation rates remain moderate with these systems, with no
extreme values indicated by ensembles. The warm air advection with
the two systems will keep snow levels high and temperatures
moderate. Temperatures will start to decline back to near normal
through the day on Saturday as the second system passes.

.LONG TERM.../ Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Models in general agreement about a second feature either very early
Saturday morning or midday Friday pulling in behind the Friday
system. The surface low will be moving into the eastern gulf and
then pulling back to the northwest meaning that any northward
movement will be slow and the associated forntal band will fall
apart while over the panhandle Saturday and Saturday night.

Sunday to Monday the idea persists in the mid to long range models
of the energy moving out of the central gulf or getting absorbed
into a low undercutting the gulf that is headed towards the Pacific
Northwest. As a result of the undercutting feature, the northeast
gulf coast and panhandle should expect a rarity for the fall season,
dry weather. From later Sunday to either Tuesday or Wednesday dry
weather and breaks in the cloud cover. This could mean patchy fog
overnight into early mornings.

It is probable that another low moves into the central gulf around
Tuesday bring another round of rain and winds to southeast Alaska.

Overall for the mid to long range portion of the forecast
temperatures will be seasonable. When there are clouds associated
with the lows, the low temperatures will be mid 30s, while during
the break period nearer the northern panhandle lows forecasted in
the mid to upper 20s. High temperatures for the week in the mid to
upper 40s for the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon
for      AKZ023-026.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKDT Friday for
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-042-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-043-051-052.

&&

KRT/Bezenek

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