Small Craft Advisory 489, NWS Juneau, AK

328 
FZAK52 PAJK 212339
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-221745-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low will move into the eastern Gulf from the south 
on Thursday night and track up the Outer Coast into Friday 
evening. A Gale force low will track northward through the eastern
Gulf Friday night into Saturday morning. 

$$

PKZ041-221745-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 28 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt. Seas 30 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt becoming S gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 20 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. SW swell. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding
to 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-221745-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 15 ft
building to 24 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt. Seas 30 ft subsiding to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding
to 13 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-221745-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 18 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to
12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-221745-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 9 ft building to
14 ft late. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. SE swell in the
morning. Rain in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding
to 11 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-221745-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
339 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft
building to 13 ft late. Rain late. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
219 PM AKDT Wed Oct 20 2021

SHORT TERM.../Wednesday evening through Friday as of 3PM/...A
weakening low pressure migrates NW from the central Gulf Wednesday
evening, resulting in a few shower bands moving quickly across the
panhandle. A second low-pressure system is located to our south
and will move N/NW along the panhandle through the short term and
is discussed in the long term as well. This system is stronger and
will bring gusty winds and more precipitation.

Dimishing showers through Wednesday night as the next system moves
up from the south. Precipitation from this second system will
reach the central panhandle by Thursday evening, leaving a slight
chance of partly cloudy skies to start the day on Thursday.

A High Wind Watch is in effect from Thursday night to Friday
morning for Metlakatla, Ketchikan, Hydaburg, Craig, and
surrounding areas. Timing and track of the low is still somewhat
uncertain, especially with how close to the coast the low center
actually comes. However there is some confidence that at least a
brief period of gusts to around 60 mph are possible as the low
passes early Friday morning. Elsewhere, breezy conditions are
expected across the panhandle as the low moves NW. Storm force
winds of up to 52 kt are possible near Dixon Entrance late
Thursday.

Minor adjustments were made to temperatures, which remains
slightly above normal for the short term forecast. PoP/Sky/QPF was
slightly nudged to the NAM, but below average confidence on timing
of each band of precipitation from the multiple lows passing
through our region.

LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/...The primary concern in
the earlier part of the long term forecast continues to be a
system which is progged to move N through the eastern gulf early
Friday. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect, although at
this time no other products have been issued.

The intensity of the anticipated shortwave continues to remain
less than certain. While operational GFS is persistent at
indicating 50 kt plus wind in Dixon Entrance, the southeast gulf,
and portions of the southern Panhandle; ensembles, while agreeing
geographically, are much less inclined to indicate such a deep
feature. Yet even so, some special credence needs to given to
operational runs, not least because of the much larger data sets
involved in their initial conditions. Consequently, chose to
further strengthen the winds associated with the system. While
keeping winds below storm force, widespread gales are anticipated
in the outer coastal waters and in the southern inner channels.
Winds were further increased as well in the southern panhandle,
with strong wind conditions expected across parts of the S
panhandle and outer gulf coast. Confidence in strength at this
stage prevents us from posting any kind of watch, so the special
weather statement suffices for now.

Towards Juneau, with a critical level in place, we could see some
stronger gusts set up in Downtown Juneau and Douglas Thursday
night/Friday ahead of any precip bands. As such a strong system
passes northwest along the coast, a safe bet is to swing winds
through the Inner Channels at least briefly from north to south
through Friday night.

Yet another storm appears behind the first, though considerable
differences in timing and strength continue, but it appears likely
that it will follow a similar path to the previous wave. Behind
this system, a break may be possible Sunday into Monday before the
active weather looks likely to resume.

Little changes were made across most other fields. The emerging
pattern favors wetter conditions across the south with somewhat
drier regions across the north as low level offshore winds add a
drying element to the atmosphere. Clearly any heavy rain trapped
in the North Pacific jet should remain to our south. With mean
southerly flow within the mid-range period, we expect temperatures
to be seasonal to above normal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
 afternoon for AKZ027-028.

MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ022-041>043-051-052-310. Small Craft
Advisory for PKZ021-033-053.

&&

KRT/GFS

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