Small Craft Advisory 491, NWS Juneau, AK

254 
FZAK52 PAJK 221222
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
422 AM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-230630-
422 AM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A storm force low will track up the Outer Coast into Friday 
evening. Another storm force low will track northward through the 
eastern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-230630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
422 AM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt becoming S wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding
to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt late. Seas 20 ft.
Showers in the evening. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers and slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. W swell. Slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-230630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
422 AM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding
to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the morning, then 
showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 20 ft. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. W swell. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 11 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-230630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
422 AM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming E 50 kt late. Seas 23 ft.
Showers.
.SAT...E gale to 40 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 23 ft. Showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. W swell. Rain
showers. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to
10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-230630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
422 AM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt increasing to 45 kt late. Seas 23 ft. 
Rain in the evening, then rain showers late. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 50 kt becoming SE gale to 35 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft. Rain showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding to
8 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-230630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
422 AM AKDT Fri Oct 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 17 ft 
building to 22 ft late. Rain in the evening, then showers late. 
.SAT...E storm force wind to 50 kt diminishing to gale to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft. Showers.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau
AK 256 PM AKDT Thu Oct 21 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Saturday / The story continues about the
two back-to-back strong low-pressure systems moving NW along the
outer coast this weekend. The first system is currently to the south
of the panhandle and will move NW through Friday. The second one is
not far behind and will start impacting the southern panhandle
Friday evening. This low is forecasted to track more offshore than
the first, which may decrease its impacts on the panhandle.

A High Wind Warning is in effect until Friday for the southern half
of the panhandle. Ketchikan, Metlakatla, Craig, Hydaburg, and
surrounding areas will first see the winds, with gusts up to 60 mph.
The highest sustained winds from this first low are forecasted for
the southern portion of the panhandle Friday morning. An ASCAT pass
from this afternoon picked up 35 to 45 kt (~40-50mph) winds south of
the panhandle.

Precipitation rates remain moderate with these systems, with no
extreme values indicated by ensembles. The warm air advection with
the two systems will keep snow levels high and temperatures
moderate. Temperatures will start to decline back to near normal
through the day on Saturday as the second system passes.

.LONG TERM.../ Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Models in general agreement about a second feature either very early
Saturday morning or midday Friday pulling in behind the Friday
system. The surface low will be moving into the eastern gulf and
then pulling back to the northwest meaning that any northward
movement will be slow and the associated forntal band will fall
apart while over the panhandle Saturday and Saturday night.

Sunday to Monday the idea persists in the mid to long range models
of the energy moving out of the central gulf or getting absorbed
into a low undercutting the gulf that is headed towards the Pacific
Northwest. As a result of the undercutting feature, the northeast
gulf coast and panhandle should expect a rarity for the fall season,
dry weather. From later Sunday to either Tuesday or Wednesday dry
weather and breaks in the cloud cover. This could mean patchy fog
overnight into early mornings.

It is probable that another low moves into the central gulf around
Tuesday bring another round of rain and winds to southeast Alaska.

Overall for the mid to long range portion of the forecast
temperatures will be seasonable. When there are clouds associated
with the lows, the low temperatures will be mid 30s, while during
the break period nearer the northern panhandle lows forecasted in
the mid to upper 20s. High temperatures for the week in the mid to
upper 40s for the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon
for      AKZ023-026.
     High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon AKDT Friday for
     AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ041.
     Gale Warning for PKZ036-042-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033-035-043-051-052.

&&

KRT/Bezenek

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