Small Craft Advisory 441, NWS Juneau, AK

100 
FZAK51 PAJK 281158
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-290315-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A ridge passes over the panhandle early Tuesday  before the next
gale force front approaches from the SW Tuesday night. The low
will remain over the SE gulf Wednesday. Outlook.  A wave will
move into the S panhandle late Wednesday night through Thursday.

$$

PKZ011-290315-
Glacier Bay-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-290315-
Northern Lynn Canal-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft in the morning then 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the 
afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-290315-
Southern Lynn Canal-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming light in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
in the morning subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 20 kt. Seas building to 4 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-290315-
Icy Strait-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-290315-
Cross Sound-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-290315-
Stephens Passage-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.TODAY...Light wind becoming S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-290315-
Northern Chatham Strait-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers late. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-290315-
Southern Chatham Strait-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 ft. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 12 ft
near ocean entrances. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. Showers.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-290315-
Frederick Sound-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers late.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-290315-
Sumner Strait-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 40 kt in the afternoon, Seas building to 5 ft in the
afternoon. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 10 ft
near ocean entrances. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt, except 35 kt out
of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-290315-
Clarence Strait-
358 AM AKDT Tue Sep 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft increasing to 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas
15 ft subsiding to 11 ft late. Showers. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning.
Showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
241 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.SHORT TERM...An area of low pressure spinning off the coast of
Haida Gwaii continues to weaken as it tracks south, out of the
AOR. Bands of precipitation rotating around this low have allowed
for steady shower activity through the central and southern
panhandle today but will be diminishing through this evening.

Behind the low, ridging will build across the gulf and through
the inner channels causing decreasing clouds this evening. Winds
turn offshore in the lower levels and there is reason to be
cautiously optimistic for substantial breaks in the clouds,
especially through the first half of the day on Tuesday.
Unfortunately, this break in the weather will prove to be short-
lived. Cloud cover will once again increase ahead of the next
system moving in for Wednesday.

Wednesday's system will swing in from the SW, reaching the
southern half of the panhandle late Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Northerly outflow winds will be fighting
against the northern progression of precipitation limiting
rainfall amounts across the north. There is uncertainty with this
system and its track. Forecast models suggest a developing wave
to ride up along the front Wednesday. As the parent low rotates
in the gulf, this secondary wave is expected push through the
southern panhandle but confidence in exact timing and intensity
is low. Confidence is higher that QPF totals will be
significantly greater across the south with the secondary wave.
Overall, 48 hr totals of 1 to 3 inches is expected across the
south with less than 1 inch expected across the northern
panhandle.

Winds will increase ahead of Wednesday's system late Tuesday
night. Gale force winds are expected along the outside waters
with small craft advisories through inner channels. Over land,
winds 15 to 20 mph can be expected as the front pushes through the
panhandle. Temperatures through the short-term remain seasonal
with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and night time lows in the
low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM.../ Wednesday through Monday as of 9 pm Sunday / A
low that moved into the east central gulf becomes nearly
vertically stacked low Wednesday. About the low center showers
will continue rotating into the panhandle. A trailing wave on the
old frontal band extending back into the north central pacific,
and this wave is expected to develop and deepen to the mid 980 mbs
over Haida Gwaii late Wednesday night to very early Thursday
morning. This will spread another burst of moderate rain across
the southern portion of the panhandle. There could be an issue
with elevated water levels from the first front, and the new
system adding to it. What is left of the low and and associated
moisture will be moved inland in advance of the next potentially
big system for the Friday- Saturday time frame.

The later time frames have issues with strength and track of the
moving to the region around next weekend. Have not tried to fine
tune to a particular solution, and if changes where being added to
the forecast leaned towards the blend that WPC used. Will be
watching the extended time frames, and hope that differences will
settle out for the last couple days of the forecast package.

Forecast confidence is good to Thursday and drops to below
average for the weekend and early part of next weekend.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-043-051-052.

&&

CC/Bezenek

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