Small Craft Advisory 439, NWS Juneau, AK

505 
FZAK51 PAJK 271816
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-280400-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low tracks east towards Haida Gwaii pushing a front into the
Southern panhandle through Monday. A ridge builds over  the
panhandle Tuesday before the next gale force front arrives  in
the panhandle Tuesday night into Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ011-280400-
Glacier Bay-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 20 diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft or less.
.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-280400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft
in the afternoon. Showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Showers.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-280400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 subsiding to 4 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Showers in the evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-280400-
Icy Strait-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. Showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-280400-
Cross Sound-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...W wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-280400-
Stephens Passage-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding. Showers.
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less.
Rain showers in the evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-280400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the 
evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-280400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near 
ocean entrances. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Near
ocean entrances, seas 6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 
ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-280400-
Frederick Sound-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the
evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-280400-
Sumner Strait-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming light in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
in the morning then 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, seas 5 
ft. Showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the 
evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...W wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-280400-
Clarence Strait-
1016 AM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...East wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft 
near ocean entrances. Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the
evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

760 
FZAK51 PAJK 272341
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-281545-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure south of Haida Gwaii and an associated stationary
boundary extending northward over the outer coast will weaken as
it is pushed east into Canada Monday evening. A ridge then passes
over the panhandle early Tuesday before the next gale force front
approaches from the SW. Outlook. The low will remain over the SE 
gulf Wednesday with multiple troughs rotating about it. 

$$

PKZ011-281545-
Glacier Bay-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light and
variable. Seas 2 ft or less. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or 
less.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-281545-
Northern Lynn Canal-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt diminishing in the evening. Seas 3 ft 
early in the evening then 2 ft or less. Rain showers. 
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building
to 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt shifting S. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-281545-
Southern Lynn Canal-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt diminishing in the evening, then
becoming SW 10 kt late. Seas 3 ft early in the evening then 2 ft 
or less. Showers. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt shifting S 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-281545-
Icy Strait-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers in the 
evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE late. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-281545-
Cross Sound-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers early
in the evening. Areas of fog. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Showers.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-281545-
Stephens Passage-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming light,
then becoming S 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers early in
the evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-281545-
Northern Chatham Strait-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
Rain showers early in the evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-281545-
Southern Chatham Strait-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW late. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft
near ocean entrances. Showers early in the evening. Areas of fog
late.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt near the ocean entrance. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft, except
11 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. Showers.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-281545-
Frederick Sound-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 2 ft or less. Showers 
early in the evening. Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 
ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-281545-
Sumner Strait-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less,
except 5 ft near ocean entrances. Showers early in the evening.
Areas of fog late. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Showers.
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-281545-
Clarence Strait-
341 PM AKDT Mon Sep 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming NW 15 kt. 
Seas 3 ft. Showers. Areas of fog. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Areas of fog. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
10 ft. Showers.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
148 PM AKDT Sun Sep 26 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system
spinning southwest of Haida Gwaii moving to the ENE. This system
is pushing a front north towards the southern panhandle. Showers
will be on the increase across the southern panhandle this evening
as the front approaches. Model lifted index values and CAPE do
suggest some weak thunderstorm potential and there have been a few
lightning strikes south of the area, so a slight chance of
thunderstorms was added to the tonight's forecast from a Hydaburg-
Ketchikan line south to Dixon Entrance. With the low south of the
panhandle, northerly winds will be the rule, strongest over Lynn
Canal where Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Forecast winds
were increased in the Craig and Hydaburg areas as the front
approaches and the low drifts closer overnight. There is also the
potential tonight for some gusty winds in the Juneau area with
some ingredients of a weak mountain wave event in place. The
forecast represented this well, with gusts in the 25-35mph range
possible. Temperatures are mostly unremarkable, with the exception
of Yakutat where due to light winds and a partly cloudy sky, we
do expect another night at or slightly below freezing.

Tomorrow, as the low drifts northward and dissipates a chance of
showers (highest chances south) is in the forecast for most of the
panhandle, with the exception of Yakutat which should have dry
weather Monday into Tuesday. A ridge builds briefly over the
panhandle on Tuesday with calm winds and drier weather ahead of
the next gale force front arriving Wednesday morning. With the
next front, winds were increased to gales for the outside waters
and small craft conditions expected for most of the inside
waters. Periods of moderate to heavy rain, especially over the
southern panhandle, are expected Wednesday with 24-hour rain
amounts in the 2-3 inch range. This is just the beginning of what
looks to be an active second half of the week.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday through Sunday as of 10 pm Saturday /
Ridge over the eastern half of the gulf early Tuesday morning is
moved into Canada. A moderately deep low that crossed over the
Alaska Peninsula to the Northwest Gulf and the associated front
will move into the the panhandle Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
front should be strong enough for 30 to 35 kt winds as the front
approaches. Solid rain totals are likely for the front passage,
and a secondary trough rotates about the low and then into the
southern panhandle Wednesday.

Through Thursday the residual low over the gulf weakens with
slowly building high pressure in the gulf as models move a strong
low from the Bering to the gulf Friday to Saturday. Timing issues
with these items vary up to 12 hours or so, but ensemble thoughts
are there with a 20 to 40 percent chance the low depth will be
below 980 mb. Given the timing issues the positions tracks are
slightly different. Have bumped the gulf winds up to Gales for the
outside coastal waters associated with the system as it makes
land fall. Showers or bands of showers rotating about the low in
the northern gulf will impact the panhandle into the weekend.

Snow levels shifting a little through the extended portion of
the forecast with a general value of 3 to 4.5 thousand feet.
Surface temperatures will remain seasonable to a just a touch
cooler (no more than 3 degrees).

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-041-042-053.

&&

BFL/Bezenek

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