Small Craft Advisory 402, NWS Juneau, AK

700 
FZAK52 PAJK 091221
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-100630-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Surface high pressure continues to build across SE Alaska 
Thursday. A gale force low and front moves into the eastern gulf 
Thursday afternoon and evening then arrives in the panhandle 
Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-100630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming W 15 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-100630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 20 kt in the morning, then
becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft
in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the morning, then
showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-100630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light wind becoming SE 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the morning, then
showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming light. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-100630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-100630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 9 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/...A leftover low is passing
over the southern panhandle. This low will continue to weaken
tonight, allowing a brief surface ridge to build over the area
Thursday. This switch from low to high means the rain from today
will fade out leaving Thursday with a mostly dry day, but partly
to mostly cloudy skies will linger around. Wind speeds in the
panhandle and in the inner channels should be on the lighter side
as well, around 5 to 10 mph.

But the calm weather won’t last long as the next front will track
through the eastern Gulf. This front will cause winds in the gulf
and along the coast to increase throughout the day Thursday. Gale
warnings and Small Craft Advisories for the gulf and coastal
waters will be in effect by Thursday afternoon.

The stronger winds and rain will arrive in the eastern panhandle
Thursday evening and move through the rest of the inner channels
through Thursday night. This means Friday is looking like a wet
day.

The winds in the inner channels on Friday will be elevated. Very
little in the forecast was changed from earlier so we are still
expecting around 20 to 30 mph winds for most inner channels. Lynn
Canal is looking at lighter winds, but still around 15 to 25 mph.

Temperatures to finish the work week won’t be too remarkable
with lows in the 40s to low 50s and highs in the 50s to near 60.

.LONG TERM.../ Fri through Wed as of 10 pm Tue/ Upper level
pattern for the long range period continues to feature an overall
W to SW flow pattern over the panhandle. This is intermixed by an
upper level low moving through on Fri associated with the rather
strong storm in the gulf that will be active at that time. The
overall pattern becomes rather murky from Sun onward as the large
upper level low over the Bering Sea begins to drift east. How far
east it gets and how fast is a point of contention in guidance
right now with low predictability going into early next week.

At the surface the main feature of the extended is the gale force
front and low that will be moving into the panhandle Fri into Sat.
Few changes in the forecast for how this system will proceed, as
guidance seems to have a good handle on it. The initial front
will just be making landfall Fri morning with wide spread gales
across the outside waters of the gulf and increasing winds and
rain in the panhandle. The main low follows on Sat, heading toward
the Cross Sound area, weakening as it comes. Expected winds will
top out at gale force for the gulf waters and 25 to 35 kt for
various parts of the panhandle (particularly the outer coast and
southern panhandle). Rains will be heavy at times with IVT values
of around 500 to 600 bringing in ample moisture with the front,
but as the front will be moving through rather quickly overall
total rainfall from Thu night through Sat night will be in the 2
to 4 inch range (higher amounts in some isolated areas).

The forecast from the late weekend onward is rather uncertain as
far as strong systems moving through are concerned. Main reason
for this are the inconsistencies with how the Bering Sea upper
low moves east in the various models playing havoc with the
forecast. There are some indications of a new front approaching
early next week, but timing of it ranges from as early as Sun
night to as late as Mon night. What is more certain is that SW to
W flow will continue to make the panhandle damp and somewhat near
normal for temperatures through mid next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ041>043-051.

&&

GJS/EAL

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