Small Craft Advisory 401, NWS Juneau, AK

675 
FZAK52 PAJK 082316
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-091730-
316 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Surface high pressure briefly builds across SE Alaska tonight
and Thursday. A front moves over the eastern gulf Thursday and 
arrives over the panhandle Friday night. 

$$

PKZ041-091730-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
316 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas building to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming NW. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-091730-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
316 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas building to 17 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Showers.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-091730-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
316 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SE late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas building to 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-091730-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
316 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt early in the evening becoming SE 15 kt 
late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas building to 21 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers.
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-091730-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
316 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas building to 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Showers.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

700 
FZAK52 PAJK 091221
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-100630-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Surface high pressure continues to build across SE Alaska 
Thursday. A gale force low and front moves into the eastern gulf 
Thursday afternoon and evening then arrives in the panhandle 
Friday. 

$$

PKZ041-100630-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming W 15 kt in the morning, then
becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 7 ft in
the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. W swell. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 10 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-100630-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light winds becoming S 20 kt in the morning, then
becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 10 ft
in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain in the morning, then
showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SW swell. Showers and
slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-100630-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Light wind becoming SE 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 4 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain in the morning, then
showers in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt becoming light. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-100630-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft building to 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-100630-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
421 AM AKDT Thu Sep 9 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft building to
17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft subsiding to
5 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building
to 9 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite analysis and radar imagery reveal a slowly
decaying low moving N towards Baranof Island. This low has brought
rain to much of the panhandle through the day, with the southern
and central panhandle being the hardest hit. While some rises in
rivers have occurred, no flooding is expected at this time. Winds
have been noteworthy with the system, with strong winds
anticipated to continue through the evening hours across the
southern panhandle. Gales and strong winds will dominate the S
Inner Channels and the Outer Coastal Waters through Tuesday
evening. The system itself will linger close to Baranof as it
slowly decays through Wednesday, bringing with it diminishing
chances of showers through that time frame.

Thursday will feature a welcome break from the rain for much of
the panhandle. Though a few isolated showers can't be ruled out,
offshore flow will work in tandem with ridging aloft to bring
breaks in the clouds to much of the area. Unfortunately, these
breaks will prove to be short lived as a strong frontal band moves
across the gulf from the west, reaching SE Alaska on Friday ahead
of its parent low. While timing discrepancies remain, this system
will likely prove to be a gale force front, and there are good
indications that it will produce a decent amount of rainfall. IVT
values as high as 500 are indicative of a healthy amount of
moisture associated with this system. Winds in many of the Inner
Channels will likely reach at least small craft strength, and
gales are probable in the outer coastal waters. Winds inland will
need to be closely monitored and may need to be strengthened in
future forecasts particularly over coastal areas.

Temperatures will remain a mixed bag, with highs in the 50s and
60s as cloud cover proves to be the determining factor in which
areas enjoy warm weather and which areas stay on the cooler side.
Forecaster confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Tuesday as of 9 pm Monday / A
strong short wave in the mid level flow, moves from the western
Aleutians to the western gulf by Thursday, before going through
the panhandle on early Saturday. This is slightly slower by a few
hours from previous thinking. The closed low in this trough
Friday is also showing better consistency across model solutions,
headed to the northeast gulf SSW of Yakutat before weakening and
getting force inland. A minor ridge behind this feature moves
across the gulf through weekend as a developing large upper low
moves into the Northern Bering Sea and will be in positions to
drive systems across the Aleutians to the gulf gulf for the next
week.

The continuation of the long range into next shows a pattern of
having the strong deep low migrate east from the northern Bering
Sea over the state weakening from Sunday through midweek, which seems
odd and shade off the mark. So while a quick zonal flow is still
fairly similar have low confidence in the mid level flow and as
result surface smaller and harder to find features for next week
weather.

For surface weather and fronts and winds, Thursday shows a weak to
null pressure pattern over western Canada extended into the
panhandle that is yielding to a mid 980s low about 500 nm south
(Thursday) of Kodiak Island moving across the northern gulf and
then weakening to about 1005 mb south of Yakutat about 100 nm Late
Friday night. Around the low moving over northern gulf, there
could be enough instability start some isolated Thunder for
Friday. Have not put in the forecast yet but is something that
will need to be watched.

Based on the gradient, and orientation, we have brought a band of
35 kt gales into the northern coastal waters Thursday night and
25 kts into inner channels headed to early Friday morning along
with rain from the frontal band. The slower speed headed east
meant having to adjust some winds and the Rainfall as it moves
into SEAK.

After the Thursday/Friday system, showers will continue through
the weekend with perhaps a bit of improvement Sunday as ridge
moves over the Gulf of Alaska. Lowered PoPs to chance levels,
although it could be dry, will have to see how this set up gets
closer to present time. Saturday to Sunday another system has been
progressing to the NE out of the north Central Pacific

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-042-043.

&&

GFS/Bezenek

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