Small Craft Advisory 400, NWS Juneau, AK

953 
FZAK51 PAJK 090353 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-091630-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Surface high pressure briefly builds across SE Alaska tonight
and Thursday. A front moves over the eastern gulf Thursday and 
arrives over the panhandle Friday night. 

$$

PKZ011-091630-
Glacier Bay-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 
kt late. Seas building to 4 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...Light winds becoming S 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-091630-
Northern Lynn Canal-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft
or less. Patchy fog late. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-091630-
Southern Lynn Canal-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
late. Seas building to 4 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-091630-
Icy Strait-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy fog. 
.THU...Light winds becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building
to 5 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-091630-
Cross Sound-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening, becoming light late. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Showers.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-091630-
Stephens Passage-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft
subsiding to 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
Rain late. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-091630-
Northern Chatham Strait-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building
to 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-091630-
Southern Chatham Strait-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less.
.THU...SE wind increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Near 
ocean entrances, seas 7 ft building to 12 ft late. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 9 ft, except 12 ft
near ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-091630-
Frederick Sound-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming light late. Seas 3 ft subsiding
to 2 ft or less. Patchy fog late. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Rain late. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Showers.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-091630-
Sumner Strait-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts
to 40 kt late. Seas building to 5 ft. Near ocean entrances, building
to 8 ft late. Rain late. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 
ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft then 2 ft or less.
.SUN...S wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-091630-
Clarence Strait-
319 PM AKDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. Patchy fog. 
.THU...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain 
late.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt becoming NW. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
247 PM AKDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.SHORT TERM...Satellite analysis and radar imagery reveal a slowly
decaying low moving N towards Baranof Island. This low has brought
rain to much of the panhandle through the day, with the southern
and central panhandle being the hardest hit. While some rises in
rivers have occurred, no flooding is expected at this time. Winds
have been noteworthy with the system, with strong winds
anticipated to continue through the evening hours across the
southern panhandle. Gales and strong winds will dominate the S
Inner Channels and the Outer Coastal Waters through Tuesday
evening. The system itself will linger close to Baranof as it
slowly decays through Wednesday, bringing with it diminishing
chances of showers through that time frame.

Thursday will feature a welcome break from the rain for much of
the panhandle. Though a few isolated showers can't be ruled out,
offshore flow will work in tandem with ridging aloft to bring
breaks in the clouds to much of the area. Unfortunately, these
breaks will prove to be short lived as a strong frontal band moves
across the gulf from the west, reaching SE Alaska on Friday ahead
of its parent low. While timing discrepancies remain, this system
will likely prove to be a gale force front, and there are good
indications that it will produce a decent amount of rainfall. IVT
values as high as 500 are indicative of a healthy amount of
moisture associated with this system. Winds in many of the Inner
Channels will likely reach at least small craft strength, and
gales are probable in the outer coastal waters. Winds inland will
need to be closely monitored and may need to be strengthened in
future forecasts particularly over coastal areas.

Temperatures will remain a mixed bag, with highs in the 50s and
60s as cloud cover proves to be the determining factor in which
areas enjoy warm weather and which areas stay on the cooler side.
Forecaster confidence is average.

.LONG TERM.../ Thursday through Tuesday as of 9 pm Monday / A
strong short wave in the mid level flow, moves from the western
Aleutians to the western gulf by Thursday, before going through
the panhandle on early Saturday. This is slightly slower by a few
hours from previous thinking. The closed low in this trough
Friday is also showing better consistency across model solutions,
headed to the northeast gulf SSW of Yakutat before weakening and
getting force inland. A minor ridge behind this feature moves
across the gulf through weekend as a developing large upper low
moves into the Northern Bering Sea and will be in positions to
drive systems across the Aleutians to the gulf gulf for the next
week.

The continuation of the long range into next shows a pattern of
having the strong deep low migrate east from the northern Bering
Sea over the state weakening from Sunday through midweek, which seems
odd and shade off the mark. So while a quick zonal flow is still
fairly similar have low confidence in the mid level flow and as
result surface smaller and harder to find features for next week
weather.

For surface weather and fronts and winds, Thursday shows a weak to
null pressure pattern over western Canada extended into the
panhandle that is yielding to a mid 980s low about 500 nm south
(Thursday) of Kodiak Island moving across the northern gulf and
then weakening to about 1005 mb south of Yakutat about 100 nm Late
Friday night. Around the low moving over northern gulf, there
could be enough instability start some isolated Thunder for
Friday. Have not put in the forecast yet but is something that
will need to be watched.

Based on the gradient, and orientation, we have brought a band of
35 kt gales into the northern coastal waters Thursday night and
25 kts into inner channels headed to early Friday morning along
with rain from the frontal band. The slower speed headed east
meant having to adjust some winds and the Rainfall as it moves
into SEAK.

After the Thursday/Friday system, showers will continue through
the weekend with perhaps a bit of improvement Sunday as ridge
moves over the Gulf of Alaska. Lowered PoPs to chance levels,
although it could be dry, will have to see how this set up gets
closer to present time. Saturday to Sunday another system has been
progressing to the NE out of the north Central Pacific

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 10 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ027-028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ035-042-043.

&&

GFS/Bezenek

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