Small Craft Advisory 286, NWS Juneau, AK

921 
FZAK52 PAJK 282349
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
349 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-291800-
349 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A sharp ridge of high pressure over the Coast Mountains will
persist through Friday evening. Several frontal systems and 
troughs of low pressure will track across the Gulf and southeast
Alaska from the southwest through the weekend. Outlook: The 
active weather pattern continues into early next week. 

$$

PKZ041-291800-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
349 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt early. Seas building to 9 
ft in the evening.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-291800-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
349 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain
late. 
.SAT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-291800-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
349 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-291800-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
349 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 10 ft
building to 14 ft late. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-291800-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
349 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

649 
FZAK52 PAJK 291141
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
341 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-300545-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Several frontal systems and troughs of low pressure  will track
across the Gulf and southeast Alaska from the southwest through
the weekend. Outlook: The active weather pattern continues into
early next week.  

$$

PKZ041-300545-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt overnight. Seas 12 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-300545-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft building to 12 ft. Rain early 
in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 14 
ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-300545-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 14 ft. Rain early 
in the morning.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-300545-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 15 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-300545-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
341 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 12 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Thu May 27 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sat/ Rather quiet day across the panhandle
with low winds and dry conditions prevailing for most areas. The
southern panhandle in particular is enjoying mostly clear skies
with temperatures reaching into the mid 50s to to low 60s thanks
to persistent offshore flow. In contrast the northern panhandle
has been stuck under marine layer clouds with temps struggling to
get out of the 40s due to weak onshore flow (Yakutat has even
gotten some showers/drizzle today as well).

The dry conditions will not last, particularly for the north, as
onshore flow becoming more pronounced and isentropic forcing
becomes more enhanced. The upper level jet will also be pointed
right at the northern panhandle and will become stronger as we get
into Fri night. The result is rain developing tonight and Fri for
much of the northern half of the panhandle and persisting into
Sat. Rainfall amounts will be highest on the NE Gulf Coast with
around 2 to 3 inches total (some areas could see upwards of 4
inches) through Sat afternoon. Lesser amounts expected for the
northern inner channels (0.5 to 1.5 inches) and the south could
very likely remain dry.

Winds will also be on the increase tonight as the ridge that was
over the gulf gets pushed into the panhandle. N-S pressure
gradients are expected to increase with a resulting increase in
winds to go along with that. South winds of 15 to 25 kt will
likely be blowing up most of the northern inner channels by Fri
afternoon (up to 30 kt or possibly higher in Lynn Canal) and will
persist into Sat morning before starting to diminish. Out in the
gulf similar conditions will be encountered due to strong S flow
on the W side of the ridge bringing up winds there.

Sat into Sat night the forecast becomes a little uncertain.
Indications right now are for the precip to pull back to the W
(nearly past Yakutat) and winds to diminish by Sat afternoon as a
new front approaches from the S. The uncertainty is in how fast
that new front comes up from the south. The 6 and 12z Nam was the
slightly stronger and faster solution by bringing the front up as
early as Sat evening with a larger area of gales in the gulf,
while the GFS was slower and weaker waiting until Sun morning to
bring it up with gales mostly confined to near Cape Suckling
(ECMWF and Canadian were somewhere in between). The 18z Nam backed
off on the faster movement and stronger front in favor of
something more like the Canadian and ECMWF for timing and winds.
Favored the 18z Nam and Canadian for precip timing and 18z Nam/GFS
for winds today though uncertainty remains for timing of precip
and winds in general with this front.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday to Thursday/... As of Wednesday evening.
Wetter than normal and near to below-average temperatures expected
in the long term. Model solutions are in good agreement for the
start of the long term, except for the timing of a wave forming
along the front on Saturday.

Temperatures this weekend are predicted to be near-normal, but
drop below normal through the start of next week due to negative
500-hPa height anomalies and a decrease in solar heating due to
cloud coverage. Winds predicted to be strongest near Yakutat due
to a barrier jet with the highest chances of winds above 30 kt
Saturday evening. Widespread precipitation is expected through the
majority of the long term due to a trough over the North Pacific
and associated onshore flow. Breaks in the precipitation are most
likely in the southern panhandle Saturday due to an upper-level
ridge. Periods of rain are predicted Sunday through Tuesday with
some heavy bursts, but the timing of those differ amongst models.
Showers linger until a surface pressure system moves in at the
end of next week.

Minor forecast updates were made to better pair with the expected
below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. Overall
forecast confidence in the wet pattern is higher than average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.

&&

EAL/KRT

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