Small Craft Advisory 285, NWS Juneau, AK

942 
FZAK53 PAJK 282338
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-291745-
Yakutat Bay-
338 PM AKDT Fri May 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt late. Seas building to 8
ft in the early evening. Rain.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

355 
FZAK53 PAJK 291156
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
356 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-300600-
Yakutat Bay-
356 AM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain in the
evening. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. Rain.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

038 
FZAK53 PAJK 292319
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
319 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-301730-
Yakutat Bay-
319 PM AKDT Sat May 29 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt early in the evening.
Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

298 
FZAK53 PAJK 301238
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
438 AM AKDT Sun May 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-310645-
Yakutat Bay-
438 AM AKDT Sun May 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft in the
evening. S swell in the evening. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

452 
FZAK53 PAJK 302336
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
336 PM AKDT Sun May 30 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-311745-
Yakutat Bay-
336 PM AKDT Sun May 30 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft subsiding to 6 ft overnight. 
SW swell in the evening. Rain.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

396 
FZAK53 PAJK 311205
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
405 AM AKDT Mon May 31 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-010615-
Yakutat Bay-
405 AM AKDT Mon May 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
6 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

828 
FZAK53 PAJK 312323
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
323 PM AKDT Mon May 31 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-011730-
Yakutat Bay-
323 PM AKDT Mon May 31 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

150 
FZAK53 PAJK 011200
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-020600-
Yakutat Bay-
400 AM AKDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt early in the morning becoming light. Seas
7 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming NE 10 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Showers.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming W 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
246 PM AKDT Thu May 27 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Sat/ Rather quiet day across the panhandle
with low winds and dry conditions prevailing for most areas. The
southern panhandle in particular is enjoying mostly clear skies
with temperatures reaching into the mid 50s to to low 60s thanks
to persistent offshore flow. In contrast the northern panhandle
has been stuck under marine layer clouds with temps struggling to
get out of the 40s due to weak onshore flow (Yakutat has even
gotten some showers/drizzle today as well).

The dry conditions will not last, particularly for the north, as
onshore flow becoming more pronounced and isentropic forcing
becomes more enhanced. The upper level jet will also be pointed
right at the northern panhandle and will become stronger as we get
into Fri night. The result is rain developing tonight and Fri for
much of the northern half of the panhandle and persisting into
Sat. Rainfall amounts will be highest on the NE Gulf Coast with
around 2 to 3 inches total (some areas could see upwards of 4
inches) through Sat afternoon. Lesser amounts expected for the
northern inner channels (0.5 to 1.5 inches) and the south could
very likely remain dry.

Winds will also be on the increase tonight as the ridge that was
over the gulf gets pushed into the panhandle. N-S pressure
gradients are expected to increase with a resulting increase in
winds to go along with that. South winds of 15 to 25 kt will
likely be blowing up most of the northern inner channels by Fri
afternoon (up to 30 kt or possibly higher in Lynn Canal) and will
persist into Sat morning before starting to diminish. Out in the
gulf similar conditions will be encountered due to strong S flow
on the W side of the ridge bringing up winds there.

Sat into Sat night the forecast becomes a little uncertain.
Indications right now are for the precip to pull back to the W
(nearly past Yakutat) and winds to diminish by Sat afternoon as a
new front approaches from the S. The uncertainty is in how fast
that new front comes up from the south. The 6 and 12z Nam was the
slightly stronger and faster solution by bringing the front up as
early as Sat evening with a larger area of gales in the gulf,
while the GFS was slower and weaker waiting until Sun morning to
bring it up with gales mostly confined to near Cape Suckling
(ECMWF and Canadian were somewhere in between). The 18z Nam backed
off on the faster movement and stronger front in favor of
something more like the Canadian and ECMWF for timing and winds.
Favored the 18z Nam and Canadian for precip timing and 18z Nam/GFS
for winds today though uncertainty remains for timing of precip
and winds in general with this front.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday to Thursday/... As of Wednesday evening.
Wetter than normal and near to below-average temperatures expected
in the long term. Model solutions are in good agreement for the
start of the long term, except for the timing of a wave forming
along the front on Saturday.

Temperatures this weekend are predicted to be near-normal, but
drop below normal through the start of next week due to negative
500-hPa height anomalies and a decrease in solar heating due to
cloud coverage. Winds predicted to be strongest near Yakutat due
to a barrier jet with the highest chances of winds above 30 kt
Saturday evening. Widespread precipitation is expected through the
majority of the long term due to a trough over the North Pacific
and associated onshore flow. Breaks in the precipitation are most
likely in the southern panhandle Saturday due to an upper-level
ridge. Periods of rain are predicted Sunday through Tuesday with
some heavy bursts, but the timing of those differ amongst models.
Showers linger until a surface pressure system moves in at the
end of next week.

Minor forecast updates were made to better pair with the expected
below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation. Overall
forecast confidence in the wet pattern is higher than average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013.

&&

EAL/KRT

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