Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2021
Small Craft Advisory 141, NWS Juneau, AK
NWS Juneau, AK issued this small craft advisory at Mar 5, 2021, 10:51 AM AKST. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 5, 2021, 10:51 AM AKST (19:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 5, 2021, 3:31 PM AKST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Juneau, AK
The text
As transmitted.
763 FZAK51 PAJK 051951 AAA CWFAJK Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED National Weather Service Juneau AK 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ098-060415- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A high end gale force low weakens as it moves north along the coast Friday. Another low moves into the southern gulf Saturday with southeasterly flow resulting across SE AK. $$ PKZ011-060415- Glacier Bay- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning. Rain showers in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening, then snow and rain showers late. .SAT...SE wind 10 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow showers in the morning. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$ PKZ012-060415- Northern Lynn Canal- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening, then rain and snow showers late. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 5 ft then 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ013-060415- Southern Lynn Canal- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 UPDATED ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .REST OF TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ021-060415- Icy Strait- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ022-060415- Cross Sound- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. .SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. $$ PKZ031-060415- Stephens Passage- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ032-060415- Northern Chatham Strait- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ033-060415- Southern Chatham Strait- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. .SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .MON...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$ PKZ034-060415- Frederick Sound- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...GALE WARNING THIS MORNING... .TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing. Gusts to 50 kt early. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. .TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$ PKZ035-060415- Sumner Strait- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING... .TODAY...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers in the morning. .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .MON...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$ PKZ036-060415- Clarence Strait- 1051 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING... .TODAY...S wind 35 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon. Out of interior passes, gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...Light winds becoming SE 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. .SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$
1 follow-up statement
261 FZAK51 PAJK 060031 CWFAJK Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska National Weather Service Juneau AK 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-third of the combined windwave and swell height. PKZ098-061845- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS... A low in the eastern gulf tracking north dissipates through Friday evening. Another low moves into the southern gulf Saturday with southeasterly flow resulting across SE AK. Northerly and outflow winds increase on Sunday as the low moves south of Haida Gwaii. $$ PKZ011-061845- Glacier Bay- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Rain showers in the evening, then snow showers late. .SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. .WED...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ012-061845- Northern Lynn Canal- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers and snow showers late. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ013-061845- Southern Lynn Canal- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ021-061845- Icy Strait- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. $$ PKZ022-061845- Cross Sound- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. .MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. .TUE...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. .WED...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$ PKZ031-061845- Stephens Passage- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt diminishing. Seas 5 ft subsiding. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft then 2 ft or less. .TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. $$ PKZ032-061845- Northern Chatham Strait- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...N wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .WED...SW wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. $$ PKZ033-061845- Southern Chatham Strait- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers in the evening. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. .SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. .SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. .MON...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$ PKZ034-061845- Frederick Sound- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt diminishing. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers early in the evening. .SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. .WED...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. $$ PKZ035-061845- Sumner Strait- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. .SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .MON...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .WED...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$ PKZ036-061845- Clarence Strait- 331 PM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021 .TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. .SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. .SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. .SUN NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. .MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. .WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Mar 5, 6:49 AM AKST, 4 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 5, 6:49 AM AKST, 4 hours 2 minutes before
Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
649 AM AKST Fri Mar 5 2021
.SHORT TERM.../Friday through Saturday Night/... The previously
advertised max gale force low is making its way north along the
gulf coast and gradually weakening as it crawls along. Satellite
and radar show the circulation very well, with the center just
west of Cape Ommaney. This low is predominantly a wind maker, with
the Ketchikan Salmon Landing observation gusting to 71 mph.
Precipitation rates have been very light for the panhandle and
mostly rain vice snow. A host of gale warnings and small craft
advisories are in effect and migrate north throughout the day
today as the storm moves north before dissipating north of Cross
Sound. The remaining challenges with the current low include fine
tuning the dissipation timing and track, and determining how the
remnants will interact with the new low entering the Western Gulf.
The next low tracks south of the Alaska Peninsula and moves into
the Western Gulf around the same time the current low nears Cross
Sound. Ensembles and operational models still showing fair spread
on this system for Friday and Saturday even now. Operational
models once again in two camps with GFS/NAM keeping the first low
intact longer as it tracks northward into the NE Gulf, but not in
alignment on position. These models also shift the western gulf
low to the southern Gulf by Saturday as they keep the first low
intact. ECMWF/Canadian are dissipating the first low into an open
wave trough by Friday afternoon, then bring the western gulf low
further north. GFS ensembles v Canadian/ECMWF reflect a similar
pattern. Decided on a compromise blend of the GFS/NAM and
Canadian/ECMWF. This solution keeps a chance of precipitation and
wind over the panhandle through Saturday, especially for the
southern zones. Forecast confidence is below average due to model
spread.
LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday night/... An upper level trough
as well as weak northerly outflow (around 25 kt in Lynn Canal)
should help keep chances of precipitation low for Sunday and
Monday, at least in the northern portion of the panhandle. This
would allow for long breaks in the clouds and the potential for
temperatures to follow a diurnal trend with some overnight dips in
the low temperatures. The substantial breaks in clouds may cause
morning fog to hamper early morning aviation or slow down driving.
From Tuesday into Wednesday, a weather front will push into the
panhandle and bring widespread precipitation. The associated
surface low may make it to Yakutat or may move north before
reaching the panhandle, making timing and precipitation amounts
lower confidence. Overnight temperatures across the panhandle will
remain near freezing resulting in some precipitation staying as
snow. Areas to watch for potential advisory level snow include
Yakutat, Gustavus, Juneau, Haines, and Skagway, though models are
still in disagreement and this will need to be fine-tuned through
the weekend. As for winds, Gulf winds were increased to 20 to 30
kt especially in the Westerly flow post front. Some increases to
15 to 20 kt for inside channel winds were preformed as well
though confidence on how strong and when they will occur is
marginal.
Once the weather front moves through the panhandle by Wednesday,
temperatures may drop slightly below normal before a potential weak
atmospheric river brings in warm moisture by the end of the week.
The long term precipitation forecast was nudged to GFS/NAM for
Sunday, and nudged to the GFS/NBM for the remainder of the week.
This helped define the Tuesday front. Temperatures were slightly
nudged to NBM/WPC. Overall confidence is above average for chances
of precipitation and temperature, but below average on strength
of the Tuesday front and track of the weak atmospheric river.
&&
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ034-036-041.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ021-022-031>033-035-042-043-051.
&&
BFL/KRT
Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/JuneauIn the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 5, 6:36 AM AKST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
636 AM AKST FRI MAR 5 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0844 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE KETCHIKAN 55.34N 131.64W
03/04/2021 M64 MPH KETCHIKAN GATEWAY AK MESONET
SALMON LANDING BEGAN PERIOD OF GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT (58 MPH).
1044 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE KETCHIKAN 55.34N 131.64W
03/04/2021 M71 MPH KETCHIKAN GATEWAY AK MESONET
71 MPH GUST AT SALMON LANDING.
1124 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE KETCHIKAN 55.34N 131.64W
03/04/2021 M62 MPH KETCHIKAN GATEWAY AK MESONET
MESONET STATION SLXA2 SALMON LANDING.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Juneau, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 3:45 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 29 hr | |
| Mar 5, 12:24 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 15 hr | |
| Mar 5, 3:57 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 3 days | |
| Mar 5, 4:12 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AJK | 11 hr | |
| Mar 5, 7:32 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AJK | 3 days |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2021Every small craft advisory in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.