Small Craft Advisory 127, NWS Juneau, AK

265 
FZAK53 PAJK 280016
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
316 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-281830-
Yakutat Bay-
316 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 8 ft. SW
swell. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
SW swell. Rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Slight chance
of thunderstorms. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain with snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain and
snow. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 13 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

423 
FZAK53 PAJK 281243
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-010645-
Yakutat Bay-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming NE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft. S
swell early in the morning. Rain showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Snow showers and
rain showers late. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Rain showers,
snow showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

207 
FZAK53 PAJK 281855 AAA
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
955 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-011300-
Yakutat Bay-
955 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell.  
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. Snow showers and
rain showers late. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. S swell. Rain showers,
snow showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

015 
FZAK53 PAJK 010101
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-011915-
Yakutat Bay-
401 PM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt in the evening, then
becoming E late. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft. SW swell. Snow showers and rain showers in the morning,
then rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW late. Seas 14 ft. SW
swell in the evening. Rain showers, snow showers, and isolated
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Snow and rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

927 
FZAK53 PAJK 011311
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
411 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-020715-
Yakutat Bay-
411 AM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW late. Seas 14 ft. S swell in
the evening. Rain showers, snow showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
S swell. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. S swell. Snow showers
and rain showers. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

620 
FZAK53 PAJK 020057
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
357 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-021900-
Yakutat Bay-
357 PM AKST Mon Mar 1 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW late. Seas 13 ft. Rain early
in the evening, then rain showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Snow showers late. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
SW swell. Rain and snow showers. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow 
showers in the evening. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

718 
FZAK53 PAJK 021258
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-030700-
Yakutat Bay-
358 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. S swell. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Rain
and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain showers and
snow showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

425 
FZAK53 PAJK 021313 CCA
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-030700-
Yakutat Bay-
358 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft. S swell. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Rain
and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell. Rain showers and
snow showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

506 
FZAK53 PAJK 021317 CCB
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
358 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-030700-
Yakutat Bay-
358 AM AKST Tue Mar 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft. S swell. Isolated thunderstorms early in the morning. Rain 
and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. Rain showers and snow 
showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.THU...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1115 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.UPDATE...Offshore winds with some cold air preservation has
Yakutat cooler with more efficient overrunning overnight. Melted
precipitation has us concerned enough to issue a winter weather
advisory through 18Z Saturday. With some preparatory cooling
ahead of the system in Ketchikan, we also lowered temperatures
overnight for Ketchikan and started precip with accumulating snow
of 1 to 2 inches before 18Z Saturday as well, again like Yakutat
before a transition to rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...304 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

SHORT TERM...The short lull and mostly clear skies that we have
enjoyed, today, over the Panhandle will come to an end tonight.
The next frontal system approaches the area, tonight. It brings
with it a copious amount of moisture streaming from Pacific low
latitudes. This will bring heavy precipitation on southeast Alaska
over the weekend. Coastal areas and central and southern
Panhandle locations can expect to see anywhere between 1.5 and 3
inches of heavy liquid equivalent precipitation from this event.
Typically mountain rain shadowed areas around Haines and Skagway
and along the haines and Klondike border highways can expect to
receive appreciably less precipitation. This can be classified as
an atmospheric river event with its long deep moisture fetch and
GFS model IVT values of around 700 approaching the Panhandle.
Notably, this value is on average about 40 percent lower than
values seen with the atmospheric river setups that were
experienced back in the late Fall. These higher values are also
focused more toward the southern Panhandle.

Guidance indicates that surface and upper level temperatures will
be cold enough for precipitation to start out as snow tonight for
many areas in the central and northern Panhandle and areas at
higher elevations. A Winter Storm Warning is in Effect for 2 to 8
inches of snow accumulation in the Juneau area from 11PM tonight
until 1PM AKST Saturday. Model guidance shows that the
precipitation will transition over to heavy rain in most areas as
warm air advection moves into the area at the surface and at 850mb
as the warm front gradually passes through the Panhandle
throughout the day, tomorrow. The typical locations approaching
the Canadian borders around the Haines and Klondike Highway areas
can expect to receive primarily snow as their surface temperatures
will not be able to warm to values as high.

Dominant southwesterly flow will remain over the eastern Gulf and
Panhandle through the weekend, delivering the warm air and deep
moisture supply through the event.

This frontal system is not a big wind maker as there is not a
tight pressure gradient associated with it.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday night/...An active weather
pattern continues into the long term with at multiple systems
expected to impact Southeast Alaska through late next week.

The period begins with a low in the NW gulf and a front already
impacting Southeast Alaska. Precipitation will be ongoing across
the region Sunday morning, transitioning from stratiform rain to
showers as onshore flow and cold air advection move in behind the
front. Higher snow levels ranging from near 1000 feet in Haines
to over 4000 feet across the south will fall through the day
Sunday. Increasing instability from CAA and lowering 1000-850mb
thicknesses will likely lead to a transition to a rain/snow mix or
all snow in some areas by Sunday night. Minor accumulations are
possible across the northern half of the Panhandle from the snow
showers. A very brief break in the precipitation is expected
Monday morning before the next system approaches.

Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into
early next week as there is good agreement another system will
move into the northern gulf Monday afternoon into Tuesday,
swinging another front into the Panhandle. Latest guidance has
backed off on the atmospheric river potential with this system;
however rainfall amounts upwards of an inch are still possible
Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Southerly flow ahead of
the front is expected to warm surface temperatures enough for
P-type to be mainly rain. Will have to watch Upper Lynn Canal and
the highways for the potential for more snow though.

Towards mid week, guidance is in good agreement that lower
pressure will remain in the gulf with multiple waves/lows rotating
into the Panhandle. At this time, there is low confidence
regarding the finer details of any one wave; however confidence is
high that a wet pattern will persist into mid to late next week.
Used a blend of the GFS/Euro for the weekend and the start of next
week; transitioning to mainly WPC for days 5 through 8.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

JWA/JLC/CM

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