Small Craft Advisory 126, NWS Juneau, AK

759 
FZAK51 PAJK 280038
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-281745-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A surface low pressure system moves towards the Northern portion 
of the Panhandle on Sunday. A second low forms in a similar 
position on Monday. Strong SW onshore flow continues through 
Monday. 

$$

PKZ011-281745-
Glacier Bay-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt 
late. Seas building to 4 ft late. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow 
showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt late. Gusts to
35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less.
Rain and snow showers in the evening. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-281745-
Northern Lynn Canal-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas building to 5 ft
late. Snow in the evening.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain with snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ013-281745-
Southern Lynn Canal-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas
building to 5 ft late. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-281745-
Icy Strait-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-281745-
Cross Sound-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SW late. Seas 9 ft. SW swell.
Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain showers
in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt becoming E 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-281745-
Stephens Passage-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-281745-
Northern Chatham Strait-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 
5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-281745-
Southern Chatham Strait-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 10 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except
13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-281745-
Frederick Sound-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-281745-
Sumner Strait-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-281745-
Clarence Strait-
338 PM AKST Sat Feb 27 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

128 
FZAK51 PAJK 281243
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-010330-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low moves through the NE Gulf Coast Sunday. A second low moves
into the northern gulf on Monday. Strong SW  onshore flow
continues through Monday.  

$$

PKZ011-010330-
Glacier Bay-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming NW 10 kt late. Gusts to 35 kt in
the evening. Seas 4 ft in the evening then 2 ft or less. Rain
showers and snow showers. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers and snow showers. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-010330-
Northern Lynn Canal-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 5 ft.
Rain showers in the evening, then snow showers and rain showers
late. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-010330-
Southern Lynn Canal-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 7 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain showers. Snow showers 
late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-010330-
Icy Strait-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 7 
ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening,
then rain showers and snow showers late. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-010330-
Cross Sound-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming S 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 15
ft. Rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. S swell. Rain showers. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. Rain showers
and slight chance of thunderstorms. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-010330-
Stephens Passage-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers late. 
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow in the morning, then rain
in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt becoming NE. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-010330-
Northern Chatham Strait-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas building to 7 ft.
Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow in the morning,
then rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt becoming N. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-010330-
Southern Chatham Strait-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 14 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 14 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 13 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-010330-
Frederick Sound-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
early in the morning. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers early in the 
morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
showers. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-010330-
Sumner Strait-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 5 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain in the 
afternoon. 
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-010330-
Clarence Strait-
343 AM AKST Sun Feb 28 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
subsiding to 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain 
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1115 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

.UPDATE...Offshore winds with some cold air preservation has
Yakutat cooler with more efficient overrunning overnight. Melted
precipitation has us concerned enough to issue a winter weather
advisory through 18Z Saturday. With some preparatory cooling
ahead of the system in Ketchikan, we also lowered temperatures
overnight for Ketchikan and started precip with accumulating snow
of 1 to 2 inches before 18Z Saturday as well, again like Yakutat
before a transition to rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...304 PM AKST Fri Feb 26 2021

SHORT TERM...The short lull and mostly clear skies that we have
enjoyed, today, over the Panhandle will come to an end tonight.
The next frontal system approaches the area, tonight. It brings
with it a copious amount of moisture streaming from Pacific low
latitudes. This will bring heavy precipitation on southeast Alaska
over the weekend. Coastal areas and central and southern
Panhandle locations can expect to see anywhere between 1.5 and 3
inches of heavy liquid equivalent precipitation from this event.
Typically mountain rain shadowed areas around Haines and Skagway
and along the haines and Klondike border highways can expect to
receive appreciably less precipitation. This can be classified as
an atmospheric river event with its long deep moisture fetch and
GFS model IVT values of around 700 approaching the Panhandle.
Notably, this value is on average about 40 percent lower than
values seen with the atmospheric river setups that were
experienced back in the late Fall. These higher values are also
focused more toward the southern Panhandle.

Guidance indicates that surface and upper level temperatures will
be cold enough for precipitation to start out as snow tonight for
many areas in the central and northern Panhandle and areas at
higher elevations. A Winter Storm Warning is in Effect for 2 to 8
inches of snow accumulation in the Juneau area from 11PM tonight
until 1PM AKST Saturday. Model guidance shows that the
precipitation will transition over to heavy rain in most areas as
warm air advection moves into the area at the surface and at 850mb
as the warm front gradually passes through the Panhandle
throughout the day, tomorrow. The typical locations approaching
the Canadian borders around the Haines and Klondike Highway areas
can expect to receive primarily snow as their surface temperatures
will not be able to warm to values as high.

Dominant southwesterly flow will remain over the eastern Gulf and
Panhandle through the weekend, delivering the warm air and deep
moisture supply through the event.

This frontal system is not a big wind maker as there is not a
tight pressure gradient associated with it.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday night/...An active weather
pattern continues into the long term with at multiple systems
expected to impact Southeast Alaska through late next week.

The period begins with a low in the NW gulf and a front already
impacting Southeast Alaska. Precipitation will be ongoing across
the region Sunday morning, transitioning from stratiform rain to
showers as onshore flow and cold air advection move in behind the
front. Higher snow levels ranging from near 1000 feet in Haines
to over 4000 feet across the south will fall through the day
Sunday. Increasing instability from CAA and lowering 1000-850mb
thicknesses will likely lead to a transition to a rain/snow mix or
all snow in some areas by Sunday night. Minor accumulations are
possible across the northern half of the Panhandle from the snow
showers. A very brief break in the precipitation is expected
Monday morning before the next system approaches.

Models and ensembles continue the active weather pattern into
early next week as there is good agreement another system will
move into the northern gulf Monday afternoon into Tuesday,
swinging another front into the Panhandle. Latest guidance has
backed off on the atmospheric river potential with this system;
however rainfall amounts upwards of an inch are still possible
Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Southerly flow ahead of
the front is expected to warm surface temperatures enough for
P-type to be mainly rain. Will have to watch Upper Lynn Canal and
the highways for the potential for more snow though.

Towards mid week, guidance is in good agreement that lower
pressure will remain in the gulf with multiple waves/lows rotating
into the Panhandle. At this time, there is low confidence
regarding the finer details of any one wave; however confidence is
high that a wet pattern will persist into mid to late next week.
Used a blend of the GFS/Euro for the weekend and the start of next
week; transitioning to mainly WPC for days 5 through 8.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ017.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>036-041>043-051-052.

&&

JWA/JLC/CM

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau