Small Craft Advisory 107, NWS Juneau, AK

426 
FZAK52 PAJK 191259
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200700-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low about 80 miles S of Cape Fairweather comes
onshore near Cross Sound on Friday. Strong westerly flow will 
persist in the gulf through Fri evening in its wake. Another 
system moves into the eastern gulf from the west on Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-200700-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200700-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the 
morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 30 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200700-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming W in the morning, then diminishing
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing late. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow in the 
morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200700-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming W 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain early 
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain. Snow in
the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain with snow. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200700-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
359 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

798 
FZAK52 PAJK 191301
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-200715-
401 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A gale force low about 80 miles S of Cape Fairweather comes
onshore near Cross Sound on Friday. Strong westerly flow will 
persist in the gulf through Fri evening in its wake. Another 
system moves into the eastern gulf from the west on Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-200715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
401 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-200715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
401 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
23 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the 
morning.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 30 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-200715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
401 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming W in the morning, then diminishing
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the 
afternoon. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing late. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...E wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow in the 
morning. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 29 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-200715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
401 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt becoming W 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain early 
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Rain. Snow in
the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain with snow. 
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-200715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
401 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

466 
FZAK52 PAJK 200047
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-201900-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Strong westerly flow will persist in the gulf through Fri night
in the wake of a low that came onshore Friday. Another system 
moves into the eastern gulf from the west on Saturday. 

$$

PKZ041-201900-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-201900-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-201900-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain with snow in the
morning, then rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt late.
Seas 14 ft building to 19 ft late. Rain.
.SUN...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 29 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 17 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-201900-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow in the evening.
Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-201900-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
347 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt late. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. SW swell in the morning.
Rain in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

593 
FZAK52 PAJK 201213
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-210615-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A low moves into the northwest gulf as an associated front moves
over the eastern gulf and panhandle Saturday. Gale force
westerly flow increases Saturday night into Sunday as the low
moves into the northeast gulf. 

$$

PKZ041-210615-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SUN...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 26 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-210615-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain showers. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt becoming S. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-210615-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the morning, then
becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 15 ft
building to 20 ft late. Rain.
.SUN...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt becoming S. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft. 
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-210615-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell in 
the morning. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming E. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-210615-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
313 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell late. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt becoming S. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...Our storm force low resulted in some high wind gusts
of 60 to 70 mph in Ketchikan early this morning. No real
verification was recorded on Prince of Wales Island at this point.
Expect gusty winds for the entire Panhandle from Juneau south
tonight as the low churns offshore. The warm sector has reached
the southern Panhandle in the least. Farther north in Juneau and
the Icy Strait corridor we experience snow falling in the mid to
high 30s with no real impacts, even as it often feels like a light
rain. Meanwhile, winter weather advisories run through 9 AM Friday
morning for both Haines and Hyder. Because of the dry but
potentially cooling air of both locations, precipitation actually
began late which could threaten final amounts, but our confidence
in the advisories still stands as both have reported visibility of
2 miles or less this mid-afternoon.

The low slowly moves into Chichagof Island Friday morning. As it
moves inland precipitation will be enhanced in the northern
Panhandle, which will mostly see rain Friday. We are looking for a
southerly surge behind the exiting system as a ridge builds to
replace it late Friday. Skagway will be gusty and potentially
Haines as well, especially Friday night with potentially warmer
temperatures than what we currently advertise.

Our quite active pattern continues on Saturday as a front lifts
north into our region. With such an orientation, we feel confident
that northerlies will advect cooler air into the northern
Panhandle, thus producing a snow threat for much of the north,
including Juneau but with higher confidence in Upper Lynn
Canal. Snow amounts could warrant watches at some point.
Confidence was high enough to lower high temperatures in
anticipation of snow melt cooling in drier air. Otherwise, rain
amounts for the southern half of the Panhandle will be quite a bit
higher than with the system transiting Thursday night.

Confidence is highest in the southern Panhandle with once again
lower confidence on the timing and track of the rain/snow line
across the Juneau/Upper Lynn Canal region.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Saturday begins as a low pressure system weakens into a shortwave
over the northern panhandle. A new stronger low moves into the
northern gulf by Saturday afternoon along with associated front.
Aloft, a broad area of low pressure will be in place allowing for
westerly onshore flow to continue. This pattern will support
multiple waves of energy to impact the panhandle through the
extent of the long term. Forecast confidence is moderate through
Sunday but by Monday alignment between models begin to degrade in
timing of each passing low pressure. Therefore, efforts were
focused on the weekend.

With an active pattern developing, daytime highs are expected to
warm with each passing system. Each low looks to erode away at the
arctic air that is in place as midlevel warm air advects into the
panhandle. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s are expected through the
weekend. Although a warming trend is expected forecast challenges
still exist across the northern panhandle as precipitation type
could remain marginal between rain and snow depending on frontal
passage and diurnal tendencies.

Temperatures have been a challenge as ensemble data support
cooler temperatures but MOS data as well as modeled atmospheric
dynamics support warmer temperatures. For Saturday into Sunday,
ptype will be the main focus. Current thinking is that overnight
lows will be cold enough to support snow through parts of the
central and northern panhandle and as the front lifts north
through Saturday evening. The question is how warm will
temperatures rise. Parallel pressure gradients don't support
strong southerly flow which could allow temps to stay cool across
the far north. For now, thinking is that across the south, all
rain, across the central panhandle, snow becoming all rain, and
across the north, snow changing to rain then back to snow Saturday
night. For Sunday, much of the same as the broad area of low
pressure keeps precipitation throughout the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021-022-025-026.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ024.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-041-042-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-052-053.

&&

JWA/CC

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