Small Craft Advisory 104, NWS Juneau, AK

883 
FZAK51 PAJK 190747 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-191530-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force low in the eastern gulf comes onshore near Cross 
Sound on Friday. Another system moves into the eastern gulf 
Saturday. 

$$

PKZ011-191530-
Glacier Bay-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. Snow showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-191530-
Northern Lynn Canal-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and
snow.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt becoming E. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-191530-
Southern Lynn Canal-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ021-191530-
Icy Strait-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Seas 5 ft. Rain
and snow showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-191530-
Cross Sound-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain. Snow in the afternoon. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
12 ft. Snow and rain showers. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. SW swell. Snow and rain. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to 13 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-191530-
Stephens Passage-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 5
ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers in the
evening. Snow showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and
snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-191530-
Northern Chatham Strait-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-191530-
Southern Chatham Strait-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 21 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 16 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening.
Seas 4 ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers and
snow showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 13 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-191530-
Frederick Sound-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain
showers.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the 
morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-191530-
Sumner Strait-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 13 ft near 
ocean entrances. Rain showers.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers in the evening, then rain showers and
snow showers late. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain with snow. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-191530-
Clarence Strait-
1047 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Snow showers. Rain showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...Our storm force low resulted in some high wind gusts
of 60 to 70 mph in Ketchikan early this morning. No real
verification was recorded on Prince of Wales Island at this point.
Expect gusty winds for the entire Panhandle from Juneau south
tonight as the low churns offshore. The warm sector has reached
the southern Panhandle in the least. Farther north in Juneau and
the Icy Strait corridor we experience snow falling in the mid to
high 30s with no real impacts, even as it often feels like a light
rain. Meanwhile, winter weather advisories run through 9 AM Friday
morning for both Haines and Hyder. Because of the dry but
potentially cooling air of both locations, precipitation actually
began late which could threaten final amounts, but our confidence
in the advisories still stands as both have reported visibility of
2 miles or less this mid-afternoon.

The low slowly moves into Chichagof Island Friday morning. As it
moves inland precipitation will be enhanced in the northern
Panhandle, which will mostly see rain Friday. We are looking for a
southerly surge behind the exiting system as a ridge builds to
replace it late Friday. Skagway will be gusty and potentially
Haines as well, especially Friday night with potentially warmer
temperatures than what we currently advertise.

Our quite active pattern continues on Saturday as a front lifts
north into our region. With such an orientation, we feel confident
that northerlies will advect cooler air into the northern
Panhandle, thus producing a snow threat for much of the north,
including Juneau but with higher confidence in Upper Lynn
Canal. Snow amounts could warrant watches at some point.
Confidence was high enough to lower high temperatures in
anticipation of snow melt cooling in drier air. Otherwise, rain
amounts for the southern half of the Panhandle will be quite a bit
higher than with the system transiting Thursday night.

Confidence is highest in the southern Panhandle with once again
lower confidence on the timing and track of the rain/snow line
across the Juneau/Upper Lynn Canal region.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Saturday begins as a low pressure system weakens into a shortwave
over the northern panhandle. A new stronger low moves into the
northern gulf by Saturday afternoon along with associated front.
Aloft, a broad area of low pressure will be in place allowing for
westerly onshore flow to continue. This pattern will support
multiple waves of energy to impact the panhandle through the
extent of the long term. Forecast confidence is moderate through
Sunday but by Monday alignment between models begin to degrade in
timing of each passing low pressure. Therefore, efforts were
focused on the weekend.

With an active pattern developing, daytime highs are expected to
warm with each passing system. Each low looks to erode away at the
arctic air that is in place as midlevel warm air advects into the
panhandle. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s are expected through the
weekend. Although a warming trend is expected forecast challenges
still exist across the northern panhandle as precipitation type
could remain marginal between rain and snow depending on frontal
passage and diurnal tendencies.

Temperatures have been a challenge as ensemble data support
cooler temperatures but MOS data as well as modeled atmospheric
dynamics support warmer temperatures. For Saturday into Sunday,
ptype will be the main focus. Current thinking is that overnight
lows will be cold enough to support snow through parts of the
central and northern panhandle and as the front lifts north
through Saturday evening. The question is how warm will
temperatures rise. Parallel pressure gradients don't support
strong southerly flow which could allow temps to stay cool across
the far north. For now, thinking is that across the south, all
rain, across the central panhandle, snow becoming all rain, and
across the north, snow changing to rain then back to snow Saturday
night. For Sunday, much of the same as the broad area of low
pressure keeps precipitation throughout the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021-022-025-026.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ024.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-041-042-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-052-053.

&&

JWA/CC

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