Gale Warning 58, NWS Juneau, AK

551 
FZAK67 PAJK 191304
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
404 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-200715-
404 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low about 80 miles S of Cape Fairweather comes
onshore near Cross Sound on Friday. Strong westerly flow will 
persist in the gulf through Fri evening in its wake. Another 
system moves into the eastern gulf from the west on Saturday. 

$$

PKZ310-200715-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
404 AM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming S 20 kt late. Seas 16 ft. Rain 
showers late.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain with snow in
the morning, then rain in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft
late. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

512 
FZAK67 PAJK 200046
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
346 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-201900-
346 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Strong westerly flow will persist in the gulf through Fri night
in the wake of a low that came onshore Friday. Another system 
moves into the eastern gulf from the west on Saturday. 

$$

PKZ310-201900-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
346 PM AKST Fri Feb 19 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt late. Seas 16 ft. Rain
showers late. 
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt gales late. Seas 
15 ft building to 20 ft late. Rain.
.SUN...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 25 ft. 
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

079 
FZAK67 PAJK 201214
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-210615-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A low moves into the northwest gulf as an associated front moves
over the eastern gulf and panhandle Saturday. Gale force
westerly flow increases Saturday night into Sunday as the low
moves into the northeast gulf. 

$$

PKZ310-210615-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
314 AM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.MON...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

694 
FZAK67 PAJK 210034
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-211845-
334 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front will continue to impact the region Saturday night. Gale
force westerly flow increases Saturday night into Sunday as a low
moves into the northeast gulf. SW flow will set up in the Gulf 
for Sunday night into Monday. 

$$

PKZ310-211845-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
334 PM AKST Sat Feb 20 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 15 ft building to 20
ft late. Rain early in the evening, then rain showers in the 
evening.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.MON...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

329 
FZAK67 PAJK 211230
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-220630-
330 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Gale force westerly flow continues Sunday as a low moves into
the northeast gulf. SW flow will set up in the Gulf for Sunday
night into Monday.  

$$

PKZ310-220630-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
330 AM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.MON...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.WED...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 

$$

008 
FZAK67 PAJK 220214
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
514 PM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-222015-
514 PM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
SW flow will set up in the Gulf and the pressure gradient will
weaken for Sunday night into Monday. A ridge of high pressure
will move over the area Tuesday. 

$$

PKZ310-222015-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
514 PM AKST Sun Feb 21 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING AND MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt decreasing to 30 kt early. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...W wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. W swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell in the
evening. Rain late. 
.WED...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

047 
FZAK67 PAJK 221234
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-230645-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
SW flow over the gulf and pressure gradient weaken through late
Monday night. A ridge of high pressure will move over the area
Tuesday. Outlook. A very strong low moves into the AK Gulf
Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ310-230645-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
334 AM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. W swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

206 
FZAK67 PAJK 230120
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
420 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-231930-
420 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
SW flow and a weakening pressure gradient will continue through
late Monday night. A ridge of high pressure will move over the
area Tuesday. A very strong low moves into the AK Gulf Wednesday.


$$

PKZ310-231930-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
420 PM AKST Mon Feb 22 2021

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas 18 ft. 
.TUE...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. W swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas
12 ft. Rain late. 
.WED...SE gale to 45 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W gale to 45 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 24 ft
late. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

583 
FZAK67 PAJK 231228
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-240630-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A ridge of high pressure will cross over the area from the west
through Tuesday night. A storm force low will move into the 
central Gulf of Alaska Wednesday, then track ESE to the southern 
Panhandle Wednesday night. 

$$

PKZ310-240630-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
328 AM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 13 ft in the afternoon. W swell. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 35 kt late. Seas 11 ft. W 
swell in the evening. 
.WED...SE storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 19 ft
in the afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

644 
FZAK67 PAJK 240026
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-241830-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low moves into the central Gulf of Alaska Wednesday
with the associated front impacting the outer coast Wednesday 
afternoon. The low tracks ESE to the southern Panhandle through 
Wednesday night reaching Cape Decision early Thursday morning. 

$$

PKZ310-241830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
326 PM AKST Tue Feb 23 2021

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. SW
swell in the evening. 
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W storm force wind to 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain
in the evening. 
.THU...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W gale to 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKST Thu Feb 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...Our storm force low resulted in some high wind gusts
of 60 to 70 mph in Ketchikan early this morning. No real
verification was recorded on Prince of Wales Island at this point.
Expect gusty winds for the entire Panhandle from Juneau south
tonight as the low churns offshore. The warm sector has reached
the southern Panhandle in the least. Farther north in Juneau and
the Icy Strait corridor we experience snow falling in the mid to
high 30s with no real impacts, even as it often feels like a light
rain. Meanwhile, winter weather advisories run through 9 AM Friday
morning for both Haines and Hyder. Because of the dry but
potentially cooling air of both locations, precipitation actually
began late which could threaten final amounts, but our confidence
in the advisories still stands as both have reported visibility of
2 miles or less this mid-afternoon.

The low slowly moves into Chichagof Island Friday morning. As it
moves inland precipitation will be enhanced in the northern
Panhandle, which will mostly see rain Friday. We are looking for a
southerly surge behind the exiting system as a ridge builds to
replace it late Friday. Skagway will be gusty and potentially
Haines as well, especially Friday night with potentially warmer
temperatures than what we currently advertise.

Our quite active pattern continues on Saturday as a front lifts
north into our region. With such an orientation, we feel confident
that northerlies will advect cooler air into the northern
Panhandle, thus producing a snow threat for much of the north,
including Juneau but with higher confidence in Upper Lynn
Canal. Snow amounts could warrant watches at some point.
Confidence was high enough to lower high temperatures in
anticipation of snow melt cooling in drier air. Otherwise, rain
amounts for the southern half of the Panhandle will be quite a bit
higher than with the system transiting Thursday night.

Confidence is highest in the southern Panhandle with once again
lower confidence on the timing and track of the rain/snow line
across the Juneau/Upper Lynn Canal region.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday as of 10 pm Wednesday/
Saturday begins as a low pressure system weakens into a shortwave
over the northern panhandle. A new stronger low moves into the
northern gulf by Saturday afternoon along with associated front.
Aloft, a broad area of low pressure will be in place allowing for
westerly onshore flow to continue. This pattern will support
multiple waves of energy to impact the panhandle through the
extent of the long term. Forecast confidence is moderate through
Sunday but by Monday alignment between models begin to degrade in
timing of each passing low pressure. Therefore, efforts were
focused on the weekend.

With an active pattern developing, daytime highs are expected to
warm with each passing system. Each low looks to erode away at the
arctic air that is in place as midlevel warm air advects into the
panhandle. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and
overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s are expected through the
weekend. Although a warming trend is expected forecast challenges
still exist across the northern panhandle as precipitation type
could remain marginal between rain and snow depending on frontal
passage and diurnal tendencies.

Temperatures have been a challenge as ensemble data support
cooler temperatures but MOS data as well as modeled atmospheric
dynamics support warmer temperatures. For Saturday into Sunday,
ptype will be the main focus. Current thinking is that overnight
lows will be cold enough to support snow through parts of the
central and northern panhandle and as the front lifts north
through Saturday evening. The question is how warm will
temperatures rise. Parallel pressure gradients don't support
strong southerly flow which could allow temps to stay cool across
the far north. For now, thinking is that across the south, all
rain, across the central panhandle, snow becoming all rain, and
across the north, snow changing to rain then back to snow Saturday
night. For Sunday, much of the same as the broad area of low
pressure keeps precipitation throughout the panhandle.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ021-022-025-026.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ024.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM this evening to midnight AKST tonight for
     AKZ025.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM AKST Friday for AKZ019.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ043.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031>036-041-042-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-052-053.

&&

JWA/CC

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